NYC/PHL 12/21-12/22 Threat

[jrodd321]

Euro showing the storm. That's all we can ask for at this point.

[Riptide]

Good thing is at least we have consensus on a storm for a couple runs and a hit for DC to PHI, As I said on another regional thread, I like the threat, its a west to east system, models should handle it better, not many other S/W's to deal with.

Aye, I also don't recall such early model consensus with the previous event (miss?). The GFS and Euro agreed on a coastal solution for like two cycles and then they differed. It will be great if the Euro and GFS still agree in two days.

[earthlight]

Cue the sleepless nights and days for snowlovers.

Here is something that we could do with every threat. We could put a pinned thread and outline what could cause the storm to miss, ie synoptic features that might change. It would probably provide for less posts about what is happening, and consolidate and streamline the entire posting process.

I did a bit of that on the first page of this thread...and will try to do that as we get closer to the threat. We're a bit too far in the long range right now.

[tombo82685]

other qpf

abe .25

balt .5

ttn .25-.3

dov .5-.6

ac .5

[mattinpa]

other qpf

abe .25

balt .5

ttn .25-.3

dov .5-.6

ac .5

Sounding decent for this far out. Thanks, and night, all!

[tombo82685]

hr 210 and 216 it tries to develop another low closer to the coast so more lgt precip over the area

[CooL]

lol its still snowing at 216, the low does not move

[earthlight]

Yeah..blocking is impressive. Long duration event so you can add at least .10-.20 to those totals.

[tombo82685]

same thing hr 222, more precip for the area

[earthlight]

Actually snowing pretty good now again at 228 hrs

[tombo82685]

tack on more precip hr 228 inverted trof sticks back between phl and nyc aimed at ray land

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

same thing hr 222, more precip for the area

Ha. now that would be crazy and am not banking on...I do think this event might have more potential than normal at 168-180 hours out...Im really uberly jacked up about this one.

[earthlight]

Basically 0.5 for everybody. Good run with surface features...we know the inverted trough hanging back isn't going to happen.

[tombo82685]

Ha. now that would be crazy and am not banking on...I do think this event might have more potential than normal at 168-180 hours out...Im really uberly jacked up about this one.

i am to just because it would fall on christmas

[tombo82685]

Basically 0.5 for everybody. Good run with surface features...we know the inverted trough hanging back isn't going to happen.

lol ill raise ya another .01-.1 with more lgt precip

[earthlight]

..Im really uberly jacked up about this one.

Kinda like a team coming in jacked up the next game after a heart-crushing loss

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

i am to just because it would fall on christmas

Forget Axe deoderant and underwear in my stocking, I want some white in my stockings!...Suppose that didnt sound too good but you get the drift

[NortheastPAWx]

Worthy enough for a precip map?

[SnoSki14]

Sounds like another big threat that may turn out to be nothing (unless it showed a cutter at Day 8, then we would probably see a cutter, ain't that amazing!). Maybe it'll be a little easier to handle than the past system, less s/w but there's been too much "boy you cried wolf" philosophy at play here so I guess I'll just watch the models but there's nothing to get excited about at all. I would still favor cold and dry, the confluence and blocking are far too overwhelming at this point for me to think otherwise.

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

i am to just because it would fall on christmas

Yeah I think most would be happy about this, especially given the recent miss. I think a nice 2-4" would put many in a happy Christmas mood. Of course, all we can ask for right now is some consistency and a good overall pattern.

[earthlight]

Sounds like another big threat that may turn out to be nothing.

Sounds like every threat at this range--you're really going out on a limb here.

[tombo82685]

here is the hr 144 from the ukie, some very good agreement so far

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Sounds like another big threat that may turn out to be nothing. Maybe it'll be a little easier to handle than the past system, less s/w but there's been too much "boy you cried wolf" philosophy at play here so I guess I'll just watch the models but there's nothing to get excited about at all. I would still favor cold and dry, the confluence and blocking are far too overwhelming at this point for me to think otherwise.

Not saying your wrong but surprising take from you.

[daxx]

Sounds like another big threat that may turn out to be nothing. Maybe it'll be a little easier to handle than the past system, less s/w but there's been too much "boy you cried wolf" philosophy at play here so I guess I'll just watch the models but there's nothing to get excited about at all. I would still favor cold and dry, the confluence and blocking are far too overwhelming at this point for me to think otherwise.

Geez.... do you ever have anything positive to say?

[SBUWX23]

Sounds like every threat at this range--you're really going out on a limb here.

Nice to see both globals have it. Not to be a debbie downer but the shortwave this emnates from is over the Pacific Ocean at 96 hr so I would think there might be predictability issues with this one too.

[CooL]

I saw the euro surface maps but didnt get a look at 500mb...Is this thing close to a major phase? like the gfs? It sure looks like the euro is screaming potential

[tombo82685]

Worthy enough for a precip map?

if more people want a precip map ill do it, its far out

[tmagan]

Cue the sleepless nights and days for snowlovers.

Here is something that we could do with every threat. We could put a pinned thread and outline what could cause the storm to miss, ie synoptic features that might change. It would probably provide for less posts about what is happening, and consolidate and streamline the entire posting process.

I've mentioned this before, but I will mention it again, with winter time rainstorms, the axis of heavy rain could be 200 miles wide, so if the three day forecast track is off 100 miles, the end result doesn't change. With most snowstorms, the axis of heavy snow is about 50 miles wide, give or take, and to ask, even in this day and era for a three day cyclone track to be accurate to within 50 miles is asking quite a bit. Same with hurricane forecasting.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

if more people want a precip map ill do it, its far out

Well you guys do what you want, but I wouldnt worry about it Tom, we get the drift.

[A-L-E-X]

I've mentioned this before, but I will mention it again, with winter time rainstorms, the axis of heavy rain could be 200 miles wide, so if the three day forecast track is off 100 miles, the end result doesn't change. With most snowstorms, the axis of heavy snow is about 50 miles wide, give or take, and to ask, even in this day and era for a three day cyclone track to be accurate to within 50 miles is asking quite a bit. Same with hurricane forecasting.

Unless we have a major overrunning event like Feb 83 or PD2-- of course we need a super juicy STJ-- which we dont get in strong la ninas.

That's why I love those huge systems that span a third of the country with a conveyor belt of snow. I dont really care if they have wind or not as long as that stripe of white covers a whole section of the country-- including us