am19psu Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 12 days ago it did that on the 20th...we see how that worked out. What's funny is that it would be a lot more believable on the 20th than Jan 1 based on the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 What's funny is that it would be a lot more believable on the 20th than Jan 1 based on the tropics. It will break down eventually, we know that, but it may just be for a week or two...if this holds til early January it increases strongly the chance we hold this pattern the majority of the winter, minus the usually thaw in mid-January...I was hoping we could survive the dreaded late month turnaround which often signifies the trouble Nina reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 HR 384 shows a nasty SE ridge building. First time I have seen the GFS break down the pattern by the end of the run. Nice Bermuda high...looks like possible triple digits for EWR after New Year's...but I will have to get earthlight's thoughts first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It will break down eventually, we know that, but it may just be for a week or two...if this holds til early January it increases strongly the chance we hold this pattern the majority of the winter, minus the usually thaw in mid-January...I was hoping we could survive the dreaded late month turnaround which often signifies the trouble Nina reversal. Every winter has a thaw for a week or two. 1996 had massive flooding, that a lot of people forget about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Every winter has a thaw for a week or two. 1996 had massive flooding, that a lot of people forget about. I think there was 3-4 cutters in that 2 week span, it was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It will break down eventually, we know that, but it may just be for a week or two...if this holds til early January it increases strongly the chance we hold this pattern the majority of the winter, minus the usually thaw in mid-January...I was hoping we could survive the dreaded late month turnaround which often signifies the trouble Nina reversal. This is somewhat piggybacking on HM's thread, and he knows way more about it than I do, but I'll be surprised if this cold stuff breaks down prior to Jan 10. I'd expect then, finally, that we go into the normal Nina torch-ish pattern. OTOH, my MR/LR calls have been complete garbage for about 4 weeks now, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I think there was 3-4 cutters in that 2 week span, it was nuts. That made it worse, the overall stormy pattern continued, just shifted way west for a while. Massive, massive flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I think there was 3-4 cutters in that 2 week span, it was nuts. if that happens this year i think people would shoot themselves with all the supressed and sheared storms we have gotten so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 If the GEM shows some semblance of the Christmas event it will be a big positive....as a matter of fact either GEM or Euro would work for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 If the GEM shows some semblance of the Christmas event it will be a big positive....as a matter of fact either GEM or Euro would work for now. the euro had it last night, 3-6 event for i78 south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 the euro had it last night, 3-6 event for i78 south I think we'd all be happy with that on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I think we'd all be happy with that on Christmas. like i said in the other forum. If you give me a 6 inch plus snowstorm on christmas, i would be satisfied for the rest of the winter. Just having it snow on that day would be immaculate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 gfs ens are bullish on the christmas event and the potential miller b setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 like i said in the other forum. If you give me a 6 inch plus snowstorm on christmas, i would be satisfied for the rest of the winter. Just having it snow on that day would be immaculate It did in 2002 and there was a lot more snow to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It did in 2002 and there was a lot more snow to follow. was that a miller b setup? I remember that storm cause it snowed on christmas eve then went to rain then back to snow later in the day. I got like a coating on the ground , a little to far south for that event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 What's great is that although the Pacific energy entered the US much earlier than the 18z run did, it still resulted in a great snowstorm. I think that goes to show that this event isn't necessarily about very intricate timing, but more-so about things that are straight-forward, like how much a shortwave can amplify. Given the fact that we actually do have ridging out west, and not over-bearing confluence initially, there is room for amplification, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GEM at 144 appears to be similar to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 2002 was ok here in Bucks County. It snowed for a bit Xmas eve but then changed to rain pretty much all day Xmas. Changed to a period of heavy snow in the late afternoon and we ended up with a few inches. A set up like the GFS is showing now would be far better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 here is the gfs ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 What do the 'N's stand for on the 500mb vorticity plots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The 2002 Christmas snowstorm was great back this way. I had 9" of heavy wet snow. We lost power Christmas day, and it did not come back on for over 24 hrs. We could not finish cooking our Christmas meal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 2002 was ok here in Bucks County. It snowed for a bit Xmas eve but then changed to rain pretty much all day Xmas. Changed to a period of heavy snow in the late afternoon and we ended up with a few inches. A set up like the GFS is showing now would be far better. here is the storm accum map from mt holly on that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 If the GEM shows some semblance of the Christmas event it will be a big positive....as a matter of fact either GEM or Euro would work for now. It's there...has the shortwave ejecting out of the Pac and into the CONUS at 144 hrs with the northern stream shortwave also diving south. The confluence is a bit stronger on the CMC but it's come around to the GFS idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Tom I am on my pda and can't read those numbers. What were the numbers for light yellow in lower bucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Wait I see less than 4 inches. Sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 fwiw here is the 0z ukmet out to hr 72 looks a lot like the nam imho for the clipper a more northerly track and stronger low http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2010121800®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=850&F2=none&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C1=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 ggem 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 ggem 168 Overbearing confluence it looks like. Good to see the shortwave at least there at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 ggem 168 This resembles the 12z Euro to me.. I could be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Overbearing confluence it looks like. Good to see the shortwave at least there at 144. thats what the 12z euro was doing also i believe, just shears it out as it comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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