tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GGEM isnt a big hit, but its def. a huge trend from the 00z GGEM which was rather progressive. here you go http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 As per that map, Long Island doesnt even exist! that map is for dec 27th. you still have time for an orderly evacuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 As per that map, Long Island doesnt even exist! was going to post this, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 here you go http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html I would like to see the ggem and ukie show something soon and join the amped up storm soultion. GGEM has been consistent in showing nothing to counter the gfs consitency. I thinkthe ggem was the only model that never showed a hit for our areas with the current storm, but one run. UK out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 indiv gfs ens runs at hr 144, pretty good agreement heres hr 156, most looks like they form the coastal a little to far off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Could be a win-win scenario even if it doesn't phase. The gfs has the shortwave far enough north that we'd still be likely to see 3-6" of snow even without the phase. I have to wonder that if the shortwave keeps trending north that when it phases, the biggest amounts would be in SNE, not here. This is what usually happens in a Miller B like phase. We don't want it to come any further north than southern Virginia if it phases because then we would miss out on the heavier snows, but at this point, I'll be happy with a few inches on Christmas. I'm not convinced that it'll phase in time, but there's a good chance that we would see a few inches of snow regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 snowfall totals look way underdone in my opinion...whats the ratios over NE NJ 6:1? 8:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 He seems to be on board with some kind of accumuating snowstorm, just not a bomb. At this point, I think we should be happy for 4-8" if it doesnt bomb in time for us. Agreed. Any type of accumulating snow on christmas is a major win imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 snowfall totals look way underdone in my opinion...whats the ratios over NE NJ 6:1? 8:1? WOuldn't worry about snowfall maps 1 WEEK OUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Agreed. Any type of accumulating snow on christmas is a major win imo. my friend storm is looking good for atleast some xmas snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gfs is probably way overamplified...but hopefully we can get a few inches. most likely won't be a widespread 6"+ storm but any snow on christmas would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Agreed. Any type of accumulating snow on christmas is a major win imo. Yep. Hoping that this "even if it doesn't phase we'll still get a few inches" thing works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ok lets see what the euro brings on the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I can see the models trending to the GFS on this one.. we don't need a million factors to come into place like this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just based on probability, the bowling ball progressive storm is far more likely than a phased bomb, but again any moderate accumulating snow on Christmas is a real treat. Given that it's a Nina that favors the northern stream sharpening and cutting north whenever possible, I doubt it's suppressed to our south but I guess anything's possible. If not for a mystery Gulf shortwave that no model had until 48 hrs ago, we'd likely be facing a blizzard right now for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I can see the models trending to the GFS on this one.. we don't need a million factors to come into place like this storm. Why don't you think the models will trend to the Euro or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Why don't you think the models will trend to the Euro or something? Last night Euro trended towards the GFS missing the phase by a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Last night Euro trended towards the GFS missing the phase by a few hours. lets see what 12z euro has to say today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yea, a pro needs to give the play by play on the Euro ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yea, a pro needs to give the play by play on the Euro ! Tombo, earthlight, snowgoose and the rest of the NYC crew do a fantastic job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Tombo, earthlight, snowgoose and the rest of the NYC crew do a fantastic job. Yeah, definitely worth the wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Tombo, earthlight, snowgoose and the rest of the NYC crew do a fantastic job. Yes they do ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 out to hr 96 storm is just starting to lift out of the rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 108 sub 1008 low over northern tx lgt to mod precip from canada border to tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 here we go..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Better look at the ggem, close but too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 108 sub 1008 low over northern tx lgt to mod precip from canada border to tx Is this the UkMet or the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Is this the UkMet or the Euro? euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 114 1008 low in north central oklahoma...lgt to mod precip from canada border to tx...one thing to note 500 mb low are further south, one up by hudson bay just off new foundland whuch is a new one that popped up compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Is this the UkMet or the Euro? Euro ... i think..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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