SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 700 mb low a little close for comfort. Not a big deal at this point. We have a phase again on another run and we can hammer details later. Looking great right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 have you ever seen the GFS so consistent with a solution as it has been 9 straight runs now Forget the GFS..... I've never seen YOU so optimistic on a possible snowstorm 9 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NYC had accumulating snow on christmas in '02 but that started as rain and didnt go over to snow until late in the day/evening. If this solution were to happen it would likely be snowing well before Christmas morning and all day long effectively shutting down travel for the day/weekend. I couldn't even imagine the implications I remember 12/25/02 very well... What a dynamic storm.. The capital district of NY got record snow from that event... It was a 972 MB low moving slowly south and east of LI.. It was wind swept rain and temps near 50ish for most of the day and then at around 7pm- streams of snow started coming in from the Northwest and Nassau County/Suffolk County received 6-8" of heavy wet snow, Christmas Night.. This upcoming event, as you stated would be snow starting on christmas eve and continuing into christmas day... That's a TRUE white Christmas!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 700 mb low a little close for comfort. Not a big deal at this point. We have a phase again on another run and we can hammer details later. Looking great right now! Meh-- at this point I would take mixing over a storm that misses us to the east-- like the current one is doing. If it mixes or changes over so be it-- just no more misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I remember 12/25/02 very well... What a dynamic storm.. The capital district of NY got record snow from that event... It was a 972 MB low moving slowly south and east of LI.. It was wind swept rain and temps near 50ish for most of the day and then at around 7pm- streams of snow started coming in from the Northwest and Nassau County/Suffolk County received 6-8" of heavy wet snow, Christmas Night.. This upcoming event, as you stated would be snow starting on christmas eve and continuing into christmas day... That's a TRUE white Christmas!!! This might actually be more like the Xmas day 1966 storm-- and if so, much more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wonder if the euro will come in with a phase this afternoon since it was so close to one at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NYC had accumulating snow on christmas in '02 but that started as rain and didnt go over to snow until late in the day/evening. If this solution were to happen it would likely be snowing well before Christmas morning and all day long effectively shutting down travel for the day/weekend. I couldn't even imagine the implications Good, I hope everything gets shut down for a week. Im getting tired of the media's antisnow bias and how happy they were we didnt get snow this weekend-- even TWC. I hope everything gets shut down, including electricity. No more crappy xmas tv programming to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 wow i cant believe the GFS got better than the 6z run. Ridging is insane, which amps this whole thing up. Its a tad faster and this is the 8th consecutive run showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 A lot of other mets are already out with it, but I just want to put out there that this set up is waaaay better synoptically than the last one. Ignore the sfc low track and notice the H5 pattern. It's a lot closer to a major EC snow storm than this last threat was (esp w/ regards to the ridge in the west and 50/50 low in the east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Actually there's a tail of 1.5" extending back to CNJ. Buried. get that a bit further down, so we get what Boston gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Forget the GFS..... I've never seen YOU so optimistic on a possible snowstorm 9 days out! well- the h5 map just looks good...and most models have the same features....its not like its JUSt the GFS...but most long range models show the same thing....i noticed it (as did may others), and i believe this is our one GREAT chance of the year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 well- the h5 map just looks good...and most models have the same features....its not like its JUSt the GFS...but most long range models show the same thing....i noticed it (as did may others), and i believe this is our one GREAT chance of the year.... Its also 5 -6 days not 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NYC had accumulating snow on christmas in '02 but that started as rain and didnt go over to snow until late in the day/evening. If this solution were to happen it would likely be snowing well before Christmas morning and all day long effectively shutting down travel for the day/weekend. I couldn't even imagine the implications The implications would be everyone get to where their going the day before and then spend the day with family and take turns snow shoveling - lol BUT - we are now in the danger zone with the GFS losing the storm ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Nice GFS run!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I have to say; that is a VERY impressive H500 signature. The downstream ridge behind the trough is absolutely beautiful; nearly classical of the Kocin-Uccellini events we had in the past; The H700 mb low is pretty ideal and the MJO is going into Phase 7, I believe which is very conductive for an East Coast Snowstorm. All the levels are closed off, slowly becoming cutoff and that is exactly what we need to see a Historical East Coast Snowstorm all on the GFS. This is certainly an eye openning phase.... Easily 18 plus inches on this run given snow growth ratios and mesocale banding. IF this happens, we can safetly say, it would be the best Christmas in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 A lot of other mets are already out with it, but I just want to put out there that this set up is waaaay better synoptically than the last one. Ignore the sfc low track and notice the H5 pattern. It's a lot closer to a major EC snow storm than this last threat was (esp w/ regards to the ridge in the west and 50/50 low in the east). Strongly agree! That is a classic MECS signature on the H5 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I have to say; that is a VERY impressive H500 signature. The downstream ridge behind the trough is absolutely beautiful; nearly classical of the Kocin-Uccellini events we had in the past; The H700 mb low is pretty ideal and the MJO is going into Phase 7, I believe which is very conductive for an East Coast Snowstorm. All the levels are closed off, slowly becoming cutoff and that is exactly what we need to see a Historical East Coast Snowstorm all on the GFS. This is certainly an eye openning phase.... Easily 18 plus inches on this run given snow growth ratios and mesocale banding. Phase 7-- that is where the MJO was last December when we had the 12/19 hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z ensembles mean at 156 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Someone should change the thread title to "Christmas threat" or something. The clipper on Tuesday is almost a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 here is the 12z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z ensembles mean at 156 hrs Exactly where we want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 heres the snow depth off the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 here is the 12z ggem Looks like a missed or late phase which still provides some snow to many. Seems like there is a decent amount of wiggle room with this system as opposed to others that were thread-the-needle systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Ratios will be higher then 10:1 especially back here in PA... usually where the -8 isotherm at 850 is where the greatest snow growth is and when the ratios increase... that runs right through E PA. Maybe 12:1 or 15:1. GGEM is not a hit for a lot of people but not a bad solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 heres the snow depth off the 12z gfs As per that map, Long Island doesnt even exist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Its also 5 -6 days not 9. true- but it has essentially shown the same thing since day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GGEM isnt a big hit, but its def. a huge trend from the 00z GGEM which was rather progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Can someone post map after 144 for GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 DT still isnt on board with this. Believe the ridge axis in the rockies is too far east to allow for a bomb like the GFS. Lets hope the Euro shows it's possible regardless, and that the consistency keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 DT still isnt on board with this. Believe the ridge axis in the rockies is too far east to allow for a bomb like the GFS. Lets hope the Euro shows it's possible regardless, and that the consistency keeps up. He seems to be on board with some kind of accumuating snowstorm, just not a bomb. At this point, I think we should be happy for 4-8" if it doesnt bomb in time for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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