SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This current storm really creams New England on the current NAM run. CRAS torches the Northeast areas thru NE fwiw.....which isn't much but figured I'd mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Really amazed at the model consistency this far out. THe euro ensembles are once again further north and stronger than the 0z OP euro, which is a great sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Here's my obligatory post after each GFS run: 8 straight runs with accumulating snow for PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM has a 700 mile inverted trough into Canada at 72 hours, this thing is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM has a 700 mile inverted trough into Canada at 72 hours, this thing is on crack. Snowgoose, with the current setup for next weekends storm and model consistency this far out does it look like this storm currently has a better chance of happening and making dc to boston happy with atleast a signifigant( 6 plus inches) storm. To me the setup looks relatively easier than this past weekend so id imagine it would be "easier". Looks like the timing would be more forgiving with a phase this time around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 FWIW Henry listed some negatives and positives regarding the 12/25 storm - IMHO the positives outweigh the negatives ..... http://www.accuweath...s-day-storm.asp His Negatives 1. NAO is going positive or at least is predicted to do so. A strong -NAO/AO only suppresses things and keeps them to the south, we dont need a -NAO 2. Phasing has to occur for the storm to become a big one; otherwise, it's just a clipper event. Very srong vort associated with the cross country storm, it will be harder to miss the phase 3. GFS history on the storms the last couple of weeks has not been very good. Too bad the GFS is in agreement with the GEFS, Euro, Euro ens, and GGEM 4. Models are not in agreement on a big storm. see number 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Why does Henry call it a clipper? Doesn't this come from the west coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Why does Henry call it a clipper? Doesn't this come from the west coast? It isn't clipper. It is a strong s/w that is coming from the Pacific. It maybe called a bowling ball system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The overall 6z GFS ensemble mean appears to be somewhat south and east of the 6z OP GFS run; although, I have not seen the individual members yet. I'm playing catchup and just saw the 06z GFS ensembles. This was the first somewhat disconcerting ens population in a few days. Hopefully they come back strong next few runs. For 6 days out it's still a strong ens signal even after backing off somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 CRAS torches the Northeast areas thru NE fwiw.....which isn't much but figured I'd mention it. On Eastern, the only one to mention the CRAS was...Ralph Wiggum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It isn't clipper. It is a strong s/w that is coming from the Pacific. It maybe called a bowling ball system. Does it earn a strike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM has a 700 mile inverted trough into Canada at 72 hours, this thing is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Did anyone see this on the NAM? It can't be serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On Eastern, the only one to mention the CRAS was...Ralph Wiggum? If I remember correctly Wiggum's real name was Steve, and being from Ivyland, it's quite possible that it's him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomieV Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Whats with the wolf head about to take a bite out of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If I remember correctly Wiggum's real name was Steve, and being from Ivyland, it's quite possible that it's him. Who the hell is Ralph Wiggum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Who the hell is Ralph Wiggum? Oh lord the Wiggum storm is making a comeback . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Oh lord the Wiggum storm is making a comeback . Nah, those were retired with Camille and Katrina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Whats with the wolf head about to take a bite out of New England good eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Nah, those were retired with Camille and Katrina Thank the good lord , now let us just hope there will be no Steve storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Man, the GFS is really hitting this shortwave hard as it comes ashore. That's a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Man, the GFS is really hitting this shortwave hard as it comes ashore. That's a beast. Keep us updated!!! Your analysis is second to none! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Keep us updated!!! Your analysis is second to none! Thanks and you got it bud! Through 108--the shortwave is more amplified than the 00z run, but the ridge axis on the west coast is a good bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Man, the GFS is really hitting this shortwave hard as it comes ashore. That's a beast. Hey, if you didnt know, there's a thread for 12z model discussion! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Phasing at hr 111, shortwave is over the Texas Panhandle and confluence over New England. For an h5 setup at 111 hours--that is almost as good as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Thanks and you got it bud! Through 108--the shortwave is more amplified than the 00z run, but the ridge axis on the west coast is a good bit further east. nevermind, you usually have bad news...j.k.....sort of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Hey, if you didnt know, there's a thread for 12z model discussion! Wow! Don't worry I'm getting both of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow, 123 hours the entire northern stream is phasing in big time. The surface low is well developed over Western TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Don't worry I'm getting both of them Lets hope this thing stays consistent. And then we can tax the hell out of this new server. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Lets hope this thing stays consistent. And then we can tax the hell out of this new server. If this stays consistent for another day or 2 you are going to need a faster server guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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