NYC/PHL 12/21-12/22 Threat

[IsentropicLift]

I posted on the other forum that at 500mb on the 18z gfs ridging was much better established over the midwest since the PV slid far enough west. I also mentioned that I thought this could lead to quicker rises along the coast and possibly bring it into range however taking a glance at the 00z GFS the PV looks more elongated and knocks down the ridging. The ridging however as weak as it is manages to supress the gulf low and displaces it to the south and east. The same can be said about 18z which displaced the low even farther SE. Ultimatly the PV is killing us. If it had managed to move far enough west it looks as if the ridging would have been much more established and it wouldnt have taken much to dig a nice trough.

[Allsnow]

The confluence seem to be lifting out faster compared to 18z gfs....hope this holds our clipper together better

[Riptide]

Maybe an inch in southern DE.

They probably received more snow during the recent clipper.

[Absolute Humidity]

Looks to definitely crush the clipper as it retrogrades toward Maine.

[tombo82685]

yup, the clipper went through the blender, then was mixed into a drink and fed to the mtns. I still think this will bring lgt snows to the area as we get closer.

[Zir0b]

Interesting read from HM on the main forum...should make you guys happy.

[Atlas]

The Xmas day event looks real on the GFS, the ensembles looked very good for this far out. I put no stock in the EURO attm.

[Allsnow]

Looks to definitely crush the clipper as it retrogrades toward Maine.

yep at hr 99 its ripped apart...the confluence looks better by lifting out on this run...but this storm is just sitting under the block and killing it

[Isotherm]

The Xmas day event looks real on the GFS, the ensembles looked very good for this far out. I put no stock in the EURO attm.

This weekend's storm looked real 7 days ago as well, with virtually every model in support of it. Looks like for the Christmas threat we may have an added bonus with the MJO more favorable for east coast cyclogenesis, but even still, it could easily fall apart. I refrain from putting too much stock in any model at this stage.

[Isotherm]

I have been talking about that the last two days...we need this costal to move out and be weak....idk why analog96 was saying we need the storm to retrograde and help our clipper....that really makes little sense to me.....it would just dampen it out

Yep, the last thing we need is for this storm to retrograde. The 00z GFS looks slightly better, but confluence holds tight east of the mountains thereby killing any precp.

[tombo82685]

we need that "suppose" to be hecs to either move faster or that clipper to slow down

[tmagan]

Look at the total precip. for the previous 60 hours on the 00Z GFS at hour 84, kind of says it all.

[Zir0b]

This weekend's storm looked real 7 days ago as well, with virtually every model in support of it. Looks like for the Christmas threat we may have an added bonus with the MJO more favorable for east coast cyclogenesis, but even still, it could easily fall apart. I refrain from putting too much stock in any model at this stage.

seriously, just look at the changes that occur over the pacific between the 18z and 0z run of the GFS...

0Z

18Z

[Allsnow]

Yep, the last thing we need is for this storm to retrograde. The 00z GFS looks slightly better, but confluence holds tight east of the mountains thereby killing any precp.

yep and after it does its dirty work on the clipper....it promplty lifts out....while waving its middel finger at us as it parts

[A-L-E-X]

There seem to be two main tracks this winter-- much like what happened in the tropical season. The one takes flat waves across the southern MA and out to sea, the other develops storms well off shore and retrogrades them to Maine. We just happen to be the monkeys in the middle

[A-L-E-X]

How about, "dec 21-23: if this threat is a no-go, we're gonna pull a midlo and make our own snow"

How about if we dont get any snow, lets blow up this **** hole of a planet and move to Saturn where they see some real snow!

[SnoSki14]

Wait I don't get it, what's the potential, for a few snow flakes? Cause that's all I see on the models, if even that. I guess a possible storm near Christmas would be considered more of a threat but we all know how this Day 8 deals work out.

[Allsnow]

I know this is typical for nina...but man is MSP having a great winter so far....every storm just finds a way to snow there...pretty crazy

[SnowGoose69]

Its funny because if we had a +NAO there is no doubt the clipper system drops a couple of inches of snow on the area.

[A-L-E-X]

I'm not too ethused about it right now. With the amount of blocking we've got downstream, that may actually hurt our chances by keeping the newly formed H5 vortex positioned near/just NE of New England. Thus the W-E propagating Miller B clipper won't even have a fighting chance w/ that monster, vertically stacked low placed there. I can't look ahead as far as Christmas after experiencing this most recent defeat. After all, it's obvious the models will be highly erratic and essentially useless beyond 3-4 days in a convoluted regime of numerous small short waves ejecting ewd from the Pacific jet, extreme high latitude blocking, plus the backdrop of a strong la nina. So Iet's focus on the Tuesday clipper for now, which doesn't look that hot. But we've now got to root against the weekend system - hope that it's as weak/flat as possible, and consequently closes off further NE. More importantly, it needs to exit stage right or at least lift far enough NE so that the NLY confluence is no longer shielding our region from any type of precip.

You know, you'd think strong blocking would be a good thing to suppress the SE Ridge, which is favored in strong la ninas-- but I guess we got too much of a good thing.

[IsentropicLift]

let's hope that the Christmas day storm holds true this run...looks good so far out to hr130. That and lets hope that the Euro is not in a completely different world

[Isotherm]

How about if we dont get any snow, lets blow up this **** hole of a planet and move to Saturn where they see some real snow!

More like start a movement to turn the Poconos and Catskills into one giant lake, so that we'd be in a new snow belt. You heard it here first.

[tombo82685]

santa is looming at hr 156, does he bring coal or gifts this run....

[A-L-E-X]

I know this is typical for nina...but man is MSP having a great winter so far....every storm just finds a way to snow there...pretty crazy

You would have hated the 1991-92 winter lol (and the winters that came before it lol)-- Minny had an epic winter and it began early..... and all our mets were saying to watch out because that snowfall pattern would migrate eastward as the winter went on. Well, it didnt happen until two years later lol.

[A-L-E-X]

More like start a movement to turn the Poconos and Catskills into one giant lake, so that we'd be in a new snow belt. You heard it here first.

Yes, now that's what Im talking about! Let's take our knowledge of making particle bombs and change the structure of the earth

[tmagan]

CBS2 just did a commercial about the Monday storm.

[Allsnow]

hr 168 snowing from central VA to PA low of eastern KY.

[A-L-E-X]

Its funny because if we had a +NAO there is no doubt the clipper system drops a couple of inches of snow on the area.

How ironic lol. But such was the case in 93-94 also-- when we had a big snow winter with a +NAO

[SnowGoose69]

You would have hated the 1991-92 winter lol (and the winters that came before it lol)-- Minny had an epic winter and it began early..... and all our mets were saying to watch out because that snowfall pattern would migrate eastward as the winter went on. Well, it didnt happen until two years later lol.

91-92 had more snow by now in NYC than this winter does..... by 0.6 inches...of course the next snow did not fall til March

[Boreal]

Maybe an inch in southern DE.

I nominate this post for the new thread name. Fits yesterday's, Sunday's, and the clipper event beyond.