tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 174 sub 1000 low about 100 miles east of norfolk lgt precip holmdel to quakertown to tawanda pa on south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 its so close to do a phase job its scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 162 sub 1008 low over south central va lgt precip holmdel to quakertwon to wellsboro south, some lgt to mod precip over del marva I dont think I've ever seen my small town used as a landmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 There's virtually no moderate to heavy precipitation on the cold side of this system. it's having trouble developing the dynamics there thanks to the upper level shortwave and heights..but it's generally in agreement with the GFS which is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 sub 992 low 100 miles east of ac lgt precip over the region heavier by dc and balt and delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 storms during semester break are the best! no interruptions. I was in the middle of my Junior year of college during the Jan 96 storm. It was an awesome time! My first year at rutgers had sponge break for the 93 super storm and ended it with winter break bliz of 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 it looks like the right direction. QPF seems a bit distorted, but looks like a positive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 qpf is sparse to say the least only .13" at BWI through 168 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 its so close to do a phase job its scary It's a complete phase at 180...problem is the phase is oriented weird so the precipitation can never really develop on the northwest side of the low pressure. It will in the next frame I can guarantee you that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 186 has sub 988 at bm lgt to mod precip aloing coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 My first year at rutgers had sponge break for the 93 super storm and ended it with winter break bliz of 96. That was quite some time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 There we go...CCB develops at 186 right over NYC..SNE should do well this run..low is tracking maybe 50 miles southeast of the 40/70 and at 988mb. Awesome signal right now...too far away to get me excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 192 sne gets spanked sub 984 low 100 or so miles east of cc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 qpf nyc .25-.5 abe .01-.1 dc .5 balt .25-.5 phl .2-.25 ac .5 mdt .1 ttn .1-.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I would say this run is 3-6 hours away from giving I-95 a MECS. So you can all sleep happy tonight, the Euro and GFS both develop a sub 990mb low over the BM on Christmas Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I would say this run is 3-6 hours away from giving I-95 a MECS. So you can all sleep happy tonight, the Euro and GFS both develop a sub 990mb low over the BM on Christmas Night. yep.. and sleep sounds good right about now.. We have something to follow, at least. Both models have a fairly significant system around the same time frame and the pattern looks pretty good. We shall see. Later, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I dont think I've ever seen my small town used as a landmark I was thinking the same thing (it is a very nice town, though!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 My first year at rutgers had sponge break for the 93 super storm and ended it with winter break bliz of 96. During my tenure at Rutgers from 2006-2010, we did not have a single appreciable/significant snow event in our area. Literally from ~12/21 to 1/20 for 4 years straight, no event of over 1-2". Pretty remarkable actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I know it will change and this isn't the final result, but it sure is something how central and northeast PA keeps getting punked even when there IS a good storm. Central PA is really a unique kind of screwzone so many times it's not even funny. They very often miss the redeveloper storms because they dryslot the area when they bomb in time to nail our area and New England, they often get screwed by lake cutters with sleet/ice, and they sometimes get screwed by miller As that go too far east for them. The one kind of storm that often overproduces (west of the Susquehanna) are clippers, since the mountains enhance what snow they have left before they die off. That was the one kind of "money in the bank" storm I could count on at Penn State. Every other kind 9/10 was a screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Central PA is really a unique kind of screwzone so many times it's not even funny. They very often miss the redeveloper storms because they dryslot the area when they bomb in time to nail our area and New England, they often get screwed by lake cutters with sleet/ice, and they sometimes get screwed by miller As that go too far east for them. The one kind of storm that often overproduces (west of the Susquehanna) are clippers, since the mountains enhance what snow they have left before they die off. That was the one kind of "money in the bank" storm I could count on at Penn State. Every other kind 9/10 was a screwjob. yea when I went to PSU I did some research on local snow climo and found that most of their average snowfall comes 1-3" at a time. Their probabilities of getting a snowfall of greater then 6" is actually very low comparitavely with other places that average over 40" of snow. For instance they average about 5" more then where I live now but the odds of me seeing a snowfall of 8" or more in a winter are probably greater where I live then State College. Its kinda a sucky place to be if you like big snowstorms. If you like to see a ton of 2" snows its heaven. People in that region complain way too much about what is actually their climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 During my tenure at Rutgers from 2006-2010, we did not have a single appreciable/significant snow event in our area. Literally from ~12/21 to 1/20 for 4 years straight, no event of over 1-2". Pretty remarkable actually. That is pretty remarkable considering if you were there during most of the least snowest years last decade. I'll never forget Feb 1994 when the state closed Rutgers for 3 days in a row because of the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Rather significant change in the RUC all in a five hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 SPC-WRF says "yes" if you're looking for flakes on Eastern Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If you tally up the accumulated precip from now to Saturday, it is likely, if not probable that NYC will be in the literal donut's hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The RUC is well E of LI. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The RUC is well E of LI. Interesting. I mentioned earlier maybe they shouldn't have extended it past hour 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I mentioned earlier maybe they shouldn't have extended it past hour 12. The HRRR rapid refresh is the replacement for the RUC. It should replace it soon. The RUC has had its issues. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 here is the gfs indiv ens mean at hr 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 168 hrs pretty impressive http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_0z/f168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 heres hr 174, very good agreement with the ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.