NYC/PHL 12/21-12/22 Threat

[tornadojay]

looks like it's trying to form a closed low already at 500 mb

[earthlight]

138 hrs is closed off at H5 546dm..the ridge is going nuts out west and the surface low is in Western TN

[tombo82685]

hr 138 has a sub 1012 low over the boot of mo, lgt to mod precip from western tn to se minnesota, lgt precip coming into ohio valley

[earthlight]

Euro is game on for a phase at 144

[tombo82685]

hr 144 sub 1012 low over north central tn/south central ky...lgt to mod precip from the lakes to gulf coast

[earthlight]

Kinda funny, but this run looks exactly like the GEFS means with QPF and surface low placement at 132-144

[earthlight]

Man, this is going to be close this run

[tornadojay]

Euro is game on for a phase at 144

yea, it does look game on.. the 50/50 low looks placed well right? I always forget exactly where that is.

[Collegestudent11]

Man, this is going to be close this run

This is actually not even that far away, if at hour 132 the features are on the field. I would expect there not to be rapid fluctuations then.

[earthlight]

Given the range we are at it's actually very similar to the GFS at 150 hrs..just a little less phased

[green tube]

You are correct. 40% chance in Somerset County, NJ for Christmas Day.

thursday evening they had an 80% chance of snow for tomorrow.

[tombo82685]

hr 150 1008 low in eastern ky lgt to mod precip lakes to se states, just startin to eanter wpa

[earthlight]

yea, it does look game on.. the 50/50 low looks placed well right? I always forget exactly where that is.

It's okay..the heights are insanely low there which does the job. Look at it trying to drop the PV in at 150

[Collegestudent11]

thursday evening they had an 80% chance of snow for tomorrow.

I think that was in part the EURO, the fact that it was around the holidays and the first potential snowstorm for the CWA, and thus advanced warning.

[LVblizzard]

As long as it has something remotely close to the GFS that's very good...at the range we're at we obviously can't expect absolute consistency and certainty from both models.

[earthlight]

Snowing in DC at 156 hrs..sfc low is weaker than the GFS but H5 is very, very close to going bonkers

[tombo82685]

hr 156 has a 1008 low in western wv, lgt precip coming to dc

[Kevin Druff]

Therres several of us from Richmond following, so if you can include this far south, we'd appreciate it.

[earthlight]

It's basically a weaker and less dramatic version of the GFS through 162..the phase occurs a hair late. Still a light to moderate snow for DC and into PHL at 162 hrs (Christmas day 18z)

[tombo82685]

hr 162 sub 1008 low over south central va lgt precip holmdel to quakertwon to wellsboro south, some lgt to mod precip over del marva

[LVblizzard]

Looks like it has a good chance to come up the coast at hour 162. Phasing occurring and almost a negative tilt with a secondary low forming in NC.

[Dsnowx53]

Man, that PV is so close to completely dropping in.

[earthlight]

It's trying it's hardest at 168 hrs...but the height field suggests it might go a hair east. No developed CCB either due to the upper level flow orientation..it's not favorable yet.

[tombo82685]

hr 168 sub 1004 low over hse lgt precip nyc to abe to wellsboro on south

[LVblizzard]

Broad 1004 low just north of Hatteras at 168, snowing in Philly-DC

[earthlight]

Man, that PV is so close to completely dropping in.

It's going to, it's just a matter of when

[tombo82685]

ill tell you one thing this puppy really slows down once it gets east of the miss, it like crawls

[earthlight]

I'd argue this run will probably take the sfc low southeast of the benchmark

[Thunder Road]

so even with no phase or a phase too late we still some snow?

tombo, can u hit me with qpf for the area? i wanna go to bed really soon

[LVblizzard]

Broad 1000 low east of VA, snow almost up to NYC at 174