earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The difference w/ this potential event is we have a pretty significant PNA spike coming D4-5 which will amplify the pattern and cause energy to bundle into the sern stream short wave at the base of the trough. Weird, seems like we're literally on the same wavelength. Strongly agree with your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How much would you have? At least enough for another bottle of Grey Goose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If what the GFS is showing tonight for the Christmas storm is still there in 72hrs and the Euro also comes on board I will begin to get much more excited then I am now, although I have to admit that its hard not to get a little excited by what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ggem to 96. it'd be nice to see the ggem to trend at least less suppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS Ensemble mean now very wet--bringing 0.75" to Eastern Long Island with Sunday/Monday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 He feels the GFS is over phasing the shortwaves and deepening the trough to much. On what basis do you think a person could make that claim? I mean, a forecast model is not a human being. It doesn't make guesses. Sure, anybody can identify an outlier or an anomalous feature (maybe that's what he means), but nobody can out calculate a super computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Weird, seems like we're literally on the same wavelength. Strongly agree with your post. Yeah, the pattern is pretty favorable and we're probably going to be disappointed if we can't pull an accumulating snow event out of this -NAO/AO/PNA spike considering it could be one of the best opportunities of this entire winter for big snows. Getting the PNA to spike in a strong nina is difficult and thus 10"+ events basically unheard of. This storm has the potential to do it but it could also be suppressed. Interesting tracking week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gem at hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Ensemble mean spaghetti plots are very robust so far with the Christmas potential...huge jump towards the OP solution compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GGEM 120 looks better further north with the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Ensemble mean spaghetti plots are very robust so far with the Christmas potential...huge jump towards the OP solution compared to 18z with the super ensembles pointing to a decent snow event for many and Usetobe on board, the intangibles are with us on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow..the GFS Ensembles are absolutely screaming at us right now at 162-168..the ensemble mean (for a spread at this hour) are tightly clustered and bringing the low up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not to be pessimistic, but again, we saw this type of run (historic in nature) 150 hours ago w/ this current "storm" And DT didn't buy that set up either.. It's a world apart different set up mister. +PNA with extreme ridging in Canada, and not too many factors have to come together just right and the right time like this more recent potential storm for it to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The mean low is 996 and broad over or maybe just southeast of the 40/70 at 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I feel like I'm repeating myself a bit, but the GFS has had accumulating snow for the past seven runs. For an inconsistent model, that is consistency that is rarely seen. It has to be picking up on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GGEM looks good enough for me at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Been m.i.a for a while, after the dissapointing outcome of this weekend's solution, but seeing that norlun feature on guidance is providing some innate hope for some accumulating snows, especially for LI, as for NYC, maybe snow showers. As for Christmas, if that PNA spike is real and persistent for that weekend, there is a def higher chance for a snowstorm, unlike this weekend. But there is always a fly in the soup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GGEM looks good enough for me at this stage. . So far a big step in the right (north) direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS Ensemble mean now very wet--bringing 0.75" to Eastern Long Island with Sunday/Monday event tomorrow and monday u mean?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 tomorrow and monday u mean?? Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's a world apart different set up mister. +PNA with extreme ridging in Canada, and not too many factors have to come together just right and the right time like this more recent potential storm for it to work. Technically won't make +PNA by CPC calculation standards, but we're transitioning from about -2.0/-2.2 to just under neutral, a pretty big jump and a definite Archambault signal for hvy pcpn event on the ec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS Ensemble mean now very wet--bringing 0.75" to Eastern Long Island with Sunday/Monday event Where do the 0-.1, .1-.25, .25-.5 and the .5-.75 lines setup respectively? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Larry Cosgrove also mentioned the strong signal coming from the models for X-mas weekend. Maybe the GFS is locked on and will ride it for the next several days....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I feel like I'm repeating myself a bit, but the GFS has had accumulating snow for the past seven runs. For an inconsistent model, that is consistency that is rarely seen. It has to be picking up on something. No, you have a point definitely. Except for the 18z GFS, every other run has had accumulating snows and a turn up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Larry Cosgrove also mentioned the strong signal coming from the models for X-mas weekend. Maybe the GFS is locked on and will ride it for the next several days....? Well this event is certainly showing up on more consecutive runs than this current weekend storm. With that said, the signal could easily be lost as we approach the time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I feel like I'm repeating myself a bit, but the GFS has had accumulating snow for the past seven runs. For an inconsistent model, that is consistency that is rarely seen. It has to be picking up on something. yes, and it can pick up on something in future runs that can turn this into a dud. So make sure you just take it as it is until a day or 2 before the event, especially this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 here is the ggem at hr 144, a lot further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ggem is weak and mostly a miss still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ggem is further north and would imply light snow in the area between 144 and 168 (we'll see qpf on the later panels once theyre out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ggem is weak and mostly a miss still This far out, I take it as a positive that it came north and now looks to give us something. More like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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