Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 DT ain't thrilled with it. Thinks its unlikely to happen based on set up aloft. Wish I understood though why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GFS is basically a classic setup for a historic snowfall across from PHL to NYC. The H500 setup is very simliar to the big ones that we had in the past. In fact, all the levels are quite classic to see. H500 closed low, H700 closed low Southeast of PHL, ideal track along with rapid cyclogenesis.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If we can get that ridging to poke that strongly into Canada, I don't see why this can't be a good snow event for us. That FORCES the northern stream to help interact with our bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Buon Natale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I agree Tom and am anxiously awaiting the SUNY 0z graphics...regretably, by the time they get out to hour 3 the 60 hours will be up... Agree William. Your area is probably at highest risk right now w/ this norlun but it's tought to say where it sets up. Should be an interesting tracking week to say the least between tomorrow and the potential Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GFS is basically a classic setup for a historic snowfall across from PHL to NYC. The H500 setup is very simliar to the big ones that we had in the past. Not to be pessimistic, but again, we saw this type of run (historic in nature) 150 hours ago w/ this current "storm" And DT didn't buy that set up either.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 DT is right, look at the 500mb at 144 HRS, theres no way its going to suddenly go negative like it portrays, but its fun to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not to be pessimistic, but again, we saw this type of run (historic in nature) 150 hours ago w/ this current "storm" And DT didn't buy that set up either.. GFS actually never showed a big snowstorm until around 120-144 hours out, and then finally lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not to be pessimistic, but again, we saw this type of run (historic in nature) 150 hours ago w/ this current "storm" And DT didn't buy that set up either.. Actually, Dave created the "WOOF" thread where he was early to ID a threat nobody's perfect in this business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Awesome setup aloft Yeah, can't ask for too much better than that. QPF could be slightly underdone with those charts. Suggests snow approaching as early as Christmas Eve and lasting 24-36 hours. I'm setting my personal bar at 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not to be pessimistic, but again, we saw this type of run (historic in nature) 150 hours ago w/ this current "storm" And DT didn't buy that set up either.. The difference is this time we have a west coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 here comes the HM storm at 300 hrs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_300l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 DT ain't thrilled with it. Thinks its unlikely to happen based on set up aloft. Wish I understood though why. He feels the GFS is over phasing the shortwaves and deepening the trough to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Actually, Dave created the "WOOF" thread where he was early to ID a threat nobody's perfect in this business I know, I know.. I'm overreacting... I just feel like this past storm was such a disappointment.. Thursday - Noon, this place was going crazy and it just seemed as though this storm was going to come to fruition, but then bailed on us as quickly and it "came back" to us.. I hope that this depiction of this upcoming event has some teeth to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I know, I know.. I'm overreacting... I just feel like this past storm was such a disappointment.. Thursday - Noon, this place was going crazy and it just seemed as though this storm was going to come to fruition, but then bailed on us as quickly and it "came back" to us.. I hope that this depiction of this upcoming event has some teeth to it. The only reason Thurs Noon the place was going nuts was because of the EUROs hiccup run, NOT the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not to be pessimistic, but again, we saw this type of run (historic in nature) 150 hours ago w/ this current "storm" And DT didn't buy that set up either.. I am just reporting what the GFS shows. But the GFS is quite likely way too fast with the negative tilt. But it is quite fun to see sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Now I don't know it things will end up nearly as close as the gfs depicts, but as far as the setup is concerned, it looks more favorable than this weekend system that's way OTS. First off, the shortwave is much stronger than the one depicted for the storm we were supposed to be getting this weekend, the blocking will be breaking down and there will be less confluence, and there's semblance of western ridging. However, the key here will be the trough positioning and the latitude of the shortwave. If the shortwave is too far south and the trough too far east, then we'll just see a quick west to east system putting down a few inches on the north side in places like Virginia, Kentucky, maybe up to DC and Baltimore, but we wouldn't see much, if anything. It looks goods this far out but I'm very skeptical. I don't think it will be able to phase in time, I think the western ridging and the trough are a bit out of place. I'm favoring quick west to east shortwave giving those places I mentioned a few inches and maybe giving us a few snow showers. Usually snow begets snow in the same places that have been seeing snow as we've clearly seen last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The only reason Thurs Noon the place was going nuts was because of the EUROs hiccup run, NOT the GFS. This is true.... What do people think the Euro is going to show tonite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 7 straight runs of snow now. That has to be at least somewhat significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If I had a dollar for every inch of snow the GFS gave me at 168 hours + ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 DT ain't thrilled with it. Thinks its unlikely to happen based on set up aloft. Wish I understood though why. I would venture a guess his pessimism is partly due to the relative ugliness of the vortex and associated height field in the north Atlantic as well as the low heights east of New England. This year several storms have had trouble making turns up the coast, preferring a much wider path into the Maritimes. This could happen again. Caution is warranted, but the persistence and consistency of the threat in guidance and ensembles as well as the modeled strength of the s/w traversing the country are encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 He feels the GFS is over phasing the shortwaves and deepening the trough to much. Good point. Still a good set-up for a moderate snow even if it doesn't bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 whats interesting the gfs ens mean agrees with the nam for tomorrows event for sne and skirts jerz coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Now I don't know it things will end up nearly as close as the gfs depicts, but as far as the setup is concerned, it looks more favorable than this weekend system that's way OTS. First off, the shortwave is much stronger than the one depicted for this storm, the blocking is breaking down and there is less confluence, and there's semblance of western ridging. However, the key here will be the trough positioning and the latitude of the shortwave. If the shortwave is too far south and the trough too far east, then we'll just see a quick west to east system putting down a few inches on the north side in places like Virginia, Kentucky, maybe up to DC and Baltimore, but we wouldn't see much, if anything. It looks goods this far out but I'm very skeptical. I don't think it will be able to phase in time, I think the western ridging and the trough are a bit out of place. I'm favoring quick west to east shortwave giving those places I mentioned a few inches and maybe giving us a few snow showers. I disagree about one thing, that it might remain like the previous storm. This one seems to be at a higher latitude to begin with, and thus could potentially spread qpf further north. I could be wrong, however, these are just observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If I had a dollar for every inch of snow the GFS gave me at 168 hours + ... How much would you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How much would you have? he would be poor lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The difference w/ this potential event is we have a pretty significant PNA spike coming D4-5 which will amplify the pattern and cause energy to bundle into the sern stream short wave at the base of the trough. However, with strong blocking still in place downstream, there is some risk of suppression and/or phasing offshore, etc. I like this potential better though as it's very important to couple the -NAO w/ a PNA ridge it the east coast wants a storm of 10"+ magnitude. With a flat ridge in the West like we've got this weekend, there's no impetus to force the short wave to dive SE and consequently turn the corner up the coast. But late week, what goes up must come down, so there's bound to be amplification aka a pretty well developed/organized low in the SE US. Question is, where is the PV, will it be overbearing and suppress the low to a point where its a TN Valley-Carolina storm, then eastern New England as the storm veers NWD. Something to track for sure - I think the best shot we've had so far this year. But even still there are things that can go wrong, so let's please keep our expectations/hopes grounded at this early stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 whew, that was fun, lets do it again in 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm very encouraged by the potential here if the PNA spike does occur as modeled. The amplification there could make this entire pattern very supportive of a big snow event in the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.