tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 looks like its about to phase at hr 150 with the northern stream, lgt to md orecip in western pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 dc getting hit good at hr 156 lgt precip just past phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 looks like its about to phase at hr 150 with the northern stream, lgt to md orecip in western pa I would assume this would lead to a more wrapped low pressure and a turn to the NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 These norlun/inverted trough events can be very sneaky and often surprise with a light to moderate snowfall. I recall the January 28th, 2007 norlun quite well as we hit the jackpot in Monmouth county with nearly 5" of snow. Sfc low pressure well offshore, 250-300 miles or so, but another disturbance to its west created a tongue of low level convergence in CNJ. Ended up being a nice light 4-5" snowfall here. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2007/28-Jan-07-SurfaceMaps.html Not saying it'll happen w/ this one, but don't expect models to have a good handle on the axis of most intense snow or the duration of it. Looks like it's going to come down to watching radar trends tomorrow as norluns are pure nowcast. We see the latest data is sniffing out the NW-SE tongue of pcpn extending toward CNJ/NYC/LI, a classic orientation. But I wouldn't be shocked if current QPF is a bit underdone especially in the areas the receive the brunt of the norlun - again - could be eastern LI, southern NJ, NYC, etc. Most likely it's somewhere on the LI, but overall we need to be on the look out for a light snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 159 lgt to mod precip phl to lewistown to erie on south, glgt precip bout to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 seems to be about 12 hours slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 lgt ot mod precip over phl to dc and majority of pa, mod precip over delmarva, this is going to try and come up, northern stream is really wrapped in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 168 getting clobbered sub 988 75-100 miles east of lewes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I like how much slower it is, even compared to the 12z run. That will probably allow it to come up north more once it hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 171 sub 984 100-150 miles east of lewes del phl to nyc hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Very positive run from the 00z GFS for the XMas Event, its also slower, and has more energy coming out of the Southwest. The 00z NAM was similar at 84 hours as the GFS @ 84 hours, so it has support. The two questions to me is how much energy comes out, how far north does the low form, and I guess a third would be how much confluence there is to shear it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 del southern nj over 1.25 qpf, phl approaching .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 lol the low is closed off hrs 171-177 pure hammerage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 7 straight runs of accumulating snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow long duration HECS for SE PA, can we get this to happen, lol, yeah right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 180 still getting hammered 976 low 100 miles east of toms river wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How is this upcoming setup different than this past event? Because at 150+ hours we were cheering things the models were deppicting as well.. So basically my question is, what makes this upcoming event more likely than perhaps this past event that as we are currently witnessing exiting WIDE right.. Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This is pure GFS Porn, Stalled out low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 through hr 183 1.5-1.75 qpf for nyc and phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How is this upcoming setup different than this past event? Because at 150+ hours we were cheering things the models were deppicting as well.. So basically my question is, what makes this upcoming event more likely than perhaps this past event that as we are currently witnessing exiting WIDE right.. Jeff Well Id say there is more energy associated with the STJ here, less confluence, and less phasing that needs to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Awesome setup aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This is pure GFS Porn, Stalled out low. seriously - it did the same this with this current storm at the 150 hour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How is this upcoming setup different than this past event? Because at 150+ hours we were cheering things the models were deppicting as well.. So basically my question is, what makes this upcoming event more likely than perhaps this past event that as we are currently witnessing exiting WIDE right.. Jeff The GFS never had that storm as consistently as it has this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Awesome setup aloft as SnowGoose and I were discussing here on friday...this is the best setup of the season by far... IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IN ITS DEPICTION (obviously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Awesome setup aloft So based upon what you are seeing right now- this set up looks much more favorable than this past storm debacle?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The ridging over west canada is really incredible. Allows for great digging and good storm set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's a Christmas miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Awesome setup aloft If only we got snow each time the setup aloft was awesome 168 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Thanks for the comments guys.. Perhaps this next 150+ hours will be as interesting as the past but this time end w/ a beautiful Christmas gift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's a Christmas miracle. Holy Sh-t - You guys aren't kidding?? Anyone think the Euro is going to be similar to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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