earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gfs actually has some precip from the norlun/inverted trof. it shifted south its focused in central nj to almost ttn, with .1 just to almost ac We found some good news. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gfs actually has some precip from the norlun/inverted trof. it shifted south its focused in central nj to almost ttn, with .1 just to almost ac Given how consistent the models have been showing that feature there is a good chance it develops somewhere, but trying to guess exactly where, how long it sets up for, and how much snow it produces is a major dart at the board deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS indicates light snow for the entire region..... huh? for who and when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 HRRR has precip as far west as Philly and eastern PA at 14Z LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 HRRR has precip as far west as Philly and eastern PA at 14Z LOL... If i have never heard of the model, i am assuming accuracy and reliability might be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 huh? for who and when? Looks like CT and especially eastern LI at this point-This is not news for those of us who knew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If i have never heard of the model, i am assuming accuracy and reliability might be an issue. Its basically one of the higher resolution models like the MM5 I believe, its very useful for supercells and such in severe wx season...some people will say that when mesoscale models are seeing differences the larger scale ones are not in the short range means they're onto something but its hard for me to believe the GFS and even NAM are THAT off right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like CT and especially eastern LI at this point-This is not news for those of us who knew lol u said entire region so i was thinking like everyone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Its basically one of the higher resolution models like the MM5 I believe, its very useful for supercells and such in severe wx season...some people will say that when mesoscale models are seeing differences the larger scale ones are not in the short range means they're onto something but its hard for me to believe the GFS and even NAM are THAT off right now. Interesting, i guess all models have their strong point. The main point to take away is the qpf gradient is awfully close to the area, regardless of the NAM or GFS. It is about 100 miles off the New Jersey Shoreline (.25 line), and the .1 looks to be on the coast. I asked earlier what the average error is, and i did see the response with respect to cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS shreds up the clipper again. Probably won't even get flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Interesting, i guess all models have their strong point. The main point to take away is the qpf gradient is awfully close to the area, regardless of the NAM or GFS. It is about 100 miles off the New Jersey Shoreline (.25 line), and the .1 looks to be on the coast. I asked earlier what the average error is, and i did see the response with respect to cyclones. I think it probably averages only 25 miles or so at this range if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think it probably averages only 25 miles or so at this range if I had to guess. That is not a large standard error from what someone would expect with all the complicated features to handle. 25 miles might bring the .1 line into most of eastern New Jersey on the GFS, so flakes might fly in the eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS shreds up the clipper again. Probably won't even get flurries. No surprise there, that event has been in the crapper for awhile...the XMas event is the one that we have a chance with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gfs is a little slower with the christmas day storm so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS shreds up the clipper again. Probably won't even get flurries. From a large qpf shield coverage to nothing in six hours. The Christmas storm behind it looks slightly weaker than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 lol u said entire region so i was thinking like everyone lol I did say that, lol....you are right......I'd be somewhat encouraged though if I lived out on the island and the environs...... Sorry Tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 a good bit further north to, but that may only be cause its slower we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gfs is a little slower with the christmas day storm so far That is not what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 through hr 123 gfs is a good bit further north has a sub 1008 low over northern oklahoma, where as 18z gfs had it in ne tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That is not what we want. The PV looks to be much further northeast though on the 500mb map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 through hr 123 gfs is a good bit further north has a sub 1008 low over northern oklahoma, where as 18z gfs had it in ne tx So long as that 500mb vort in Canada does not drop south the X-Mas storm is going to track well north of where most guidance has had it, because even prior to the models seeing that feature they were way too far south with the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 129 sub 1008 in se missouri, alot further noirth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 So long as that 500mb vort in Canada does not drop south the X-Mas storm is going to track well north of where most guidance has had it, because even prior to the models seeing that feature they were way too far south with the low track. through hr 132 the vort is way up into canada, the low is in south central missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 129 sub 1008 in se missouri, alot further noirth I'm not surprised at all, with a neutral NAO and no real block any longer this makes more sense, doesn't mean it won't start heading SE at later frames but I still won't buy a south track unless that vort is encroaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 By the way, the 03Z RUC is drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 just north of st louis is getting clobbered at hr 135, lgt to mod precip up to chicago at hr 135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 sub 1004 low in se ky hr 138, northern stream is starting to get involved now, better ridging out ahead of the storm compared to 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 sub 1004 low in se ky hr 138, northern stream is starting to get involved now, better ridging out ahead of the storm compared to 18z gfs The Midwest will probably have a foot plus of snow by christmas with this weeks clipper and the christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 wow check the placement of the storm from 18z gfs at hr 150 to 0z at hr 144, remarkable, a good bit slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like we might see a solution similar to 12z here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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