SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0z NAM showing a very nice prolonged snow event for eastern Long Island... Could see a 2/25/99 type scenario, although the track of this system is different where Montauk saw over a foot and only 2-3 inches fell 30 miles or so west of there...won't see one foot plus amounts but could see 6 possibly...the bust potential remains high on this system still given another 50-75 mile shift and measurable snow could fall over all of LI and parts of NYC albeit not much....the RUC continues to be closer than the NAM. I still am not sure why the NE and SE Suffolk zones did not get a watch on the afternoon package...its so early in the year perhaps they didnt want a wolf crying event out of the gate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 While the NAM & the RUC may be closer to the coast and even give eastern LI snowfall etc....all one really has to do is look at the radar and the steering currents that are in place and you can see moisture is going ENE and majority if not all will be sliding south and east of the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Imagine living in SNE. Do you trust the NAM? It shows over 1" to as much as 1.50" of QPF. On the coast it's half rain but just away, the NAM has over a foot for them. Try forecasting on TV for that area. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 While the NAM & the RUC may be closer to the coast and even give eastern LI snowfall etc....all one really has to do is look at the radar and the steering currents that are in place and you can see moisture is going ENE and majority if not all will be sliding south and east of the area.. This was predicted by both the RUC and the NAM, look at the 700mb chart. Massive cyclongenesis begins to occur in 12 hours. The secondary low hasn't even formed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 While the NAM & the RUC may be closer to the coast and even give eastern LI snowfall etc....all one really has to do is look at the radar and the steering currents that are in place and you can see moisture is going ENE and majority if not all will be sliding south and east of the area.. Its still too early on in the situation, the RUC and NAM both indicate NE movement of the precip shield until 10Z-13Z when it begins blossoming west of the low off the Delmarva and then move north-north-northeast...the radar trends won't look good for another 9-10 hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Could see a 2/25/99 type scenario, although the track of this system is different where Montauk saw over a foot and only 2-3 inches fell 30 miles or so west of there...won't see one foot plus amounts but could see 6 possibly...the bust potential remains high on this system still given another 50-75 mile shift and measurable snow could fall over all of LI and parts of NYC albeit not much....the RUC continues to be closer than the NAM. I still am not sure why the NE and SE Suffolk zones did not get a watch on the afternoon package...its so early in the year perhaps they didnt want a wolf crying event out of the gate. I agree, a watch should be warranted, especially less than 24 hours out. I my own opinion they should put one out, as it makes little sense to have a watch a few hours before a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 While the NAM & the RUC may be closer to the coast and even give eastern LI snowfall etc....all one really has to do is look at the radar and the steering currents that are in place and you can see moisture is going ENE and majority if not all will be sliding south and east of the area.. They develop the precip later tonight. Newest RUC, 01z, brings the precip shield into all of NYC and LI now. RUC did great with that surprise snow a few nights ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 RUC usually gives people some hope at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 They develop the precip later tonight. Newest RUC, 01z, brings the precip shield into all of NYC and LI now. RUC did great with that surprise snow a few nights ago. Quite interesting, does it make the shield cut into the entire tri-state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Quite interesting, does it make the shield cut into the entire tri-state? NYC, SWCT and all of LI. It's the RUC though. RUC is weird. Sometimes it will nail an event, like it did a few nights ago and other times it's horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Could see a 2/25/99 type scenario, although the track of this system is different where Montauk saw over a foot and only 2-3 inches fell 30 miles or so west of there...won't see one foot plus amounts but could see 6 possibly...the bust potential remains high on this system still given another 50-75 mile shift and measurable snow could fall over all of LI and parts of NYC albeit not much....the RUC continues to be closer than the NAM. I still am not sure why the NE and SE Suffolk zones did not get a watch on the afternoon package...its so early in the year perhaps they didnt want a wolf crying event out of the gate. Not enough justification, the RGEM, which to me is more reliable than the NAM, gives a minimal amount to L.I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 While the NAM & the RUC may be closer to the coast and even give eastern LI snowfall etc....all one really has to do is look at the radar and the steering currents that are in place and you can see moisture is going ENE and majority if not all will be sliding south and east of the area.. Not true, actually lp will be forming out over the ocean and will be captured by a nice vort max sliding off the delmarva coast, 300 500 700 mb all look fantastic, storm intensifies quickly and a ccb works northwest backing into southern new england. YOu will be witnessing snow backing in from the se and east tomorrow on radar........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 What is the typical model deviation from reality in terms of surface features and QPF about a day out? I remember hearing about a small range of error before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 What is the typical model deviation from reality in terms of surface features and QPF about a day out? I remember hearing about a small range of error before. Typically, in this day and era not much, but as pointed out earlier, the ocean-atmosphere interaction with the developing cyclone might be causing problems. As an aside, you see with nascent tropical cyclones you also have high model errors, this, in a way is somewhat analogous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Its still too early on in the situation, the RUC and NAM both indicate NE movement of the precip shield until 10Z-13Z when it begins blossoming west of the low off the Delmarva and then move north-north-northeast...the radar trends won't look good for another 9-10 hours at least. What other model besides the RUC & NAM develop a low off the delmarva? The only area of low pressure I see is currently east of Hatteras and another low will or should develop to the SE of that and then the two look to merge together and still press off to the ENE.. You can clearly see when looking at the water vapor what is actually going on ... Water Vapor Eastern US So i am afraid that I am going to have to respectfully disagree HPC backs up the above thinking as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 While the NAM & the RUC may be closer to the coast and even give eastern LI snowfall etc....all one really has to do is look at the radar and the steering currents that are in place and you can see moisture is going ENE and majority if not all will be sliding south and east of the area.. The NAM and RUC are not synoptic models. They are not meant to handle the complex evolution of a storm in the medium range IMO; they are best for determining surface temperatures, alignment of deformation axis, potential for convection, etc. I don't think what the NAM says means much, and I wouldn't even be getting that excited in Boston right now. The radar and WV loops show the storm sliding out to sea, and none of the globals have latched onto the degree of retrograding or intense banding that the NAM has. The NAM often exaggerates such features and is notorious for fooling weenies at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 What other model besides the RUC & NAM develop a low off the delmarva? The only area of low pressure I see is currently east of Hatteras and another low will or should develop to the SE of that and then the two look to merge together and still press off to the ENE.. You can clearly see when looking at the water vapor what is actually going on ... Water Vapor Eastern US So i am afraid that I am going to have to respectfully disagree HPC backs up the above thinking as well... I have to agree with ya especially looking at water vapor. I do not see any sign of deep moisture sticking around and looking at the NAM plots for forcing, I do not see how some of those totals come about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I have to agree with ya especially looking at water vapor. I do not see any sign of deep moisture sticking around and looking at the NAM plots for forcing, I do not see how some of those totals come about. It looks like the main shield of precipitation breaks off from the initial low and then it decides to expand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I have to agree with ya especially looking at water vapor. I do not see any sign of deep moisture sticking around and looking at the NAM plots for forcing, I do not see how some of those totals come about. What is going on with the shortwave in Kentucky? It looks like it wants to the phase in a big way. I think this is what the NAM and RUC are keying in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 What is going on with the shortwave in Kentucky? It looks like it wants to the phase in a big way. I think this is what the NAM and RUC are keying in on. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_500_015l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 00Z RGEM says no dice, but it brings precip. close, as rain for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 00Z RGEM says no dice, but it brings precip. close, as rain for some reason. interesting to see what the gfs does, but i think the nam may be snorting the white stuff, and its not snow. No real support at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 interesting to see what the gfs does, but i think the nam may be snorting the white stuff, and its not snow. No real support at all. Unless the RGEM says it, I don't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 interesting to see what the gfs does, but i think the nam may be snorting the white stuff, and its not snow. No real support at all. It did a horrible job in NC. I was following the runs last night it was way to slow and west with the moisture and I think this is the same with the runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It did a horrible job in NC. I was following the runs last night it was way to slow and west with the moisture and I think this is the same with the runs tonight. do they have verification scores for the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 do they have verification scores for the nam? Honestly I am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Gfs doesnt even come really close at all with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the norlun/inverted trof is there again aimed right at nyc and li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gfs actually has some precip from the norlun/inverted trof. it shifted south its focused in central nj to almost ttn, with .1 just to almost ac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS indicates light snow for the entire region..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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