blazess556 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Look at what the pattern supports. don't take model solutions verbatim. they are going to flip-flop. some will show hits, some suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Don't get your hopes up if you are north of philly for the christmas storm - EURO is suppressed - GFS trending that way - flow is still flat and progressive ..... Not sure if I would call this "flat and progressive" http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_156l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not sure if I would call this "flat and progressive" http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_156l.gif Yeah, the northern stream is just screaming down the back of the PNA ridge. I like this threat more than others so far because we have a well-defined +PNA and still some good blocking on the Atlantic side. The energy in the Plains looks much juicier and there's a lot of cold air available at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yeah, the northern stream is just screaming down the back of the PNA ridge. I like this threat more than others so far because we have a well-defined +PNA and still some good blocking on the Atlantic side. The energy in the Plains looks much juicier and there's a lot of cold air available at this time frame. Exactly, although the PNA ridge is a bit displaced, I dont get all the negativity, this setup is really nice with the Euro Ens/GFS agreeing on a near BM track. Still too far out, but were not dealing with a bunch of small vorts that need perfect phasing, like last time, so I'm a bit more confident at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 just looking at the 18z gfs ens, 1 member has a hit for us on christmas, the rest surpressed down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 just looking at the 18z gfs ens, 1 member has a hit for us on christmas, the rest surpressed down south Euro ensembles were further north than the OP, in no way agreeing with the 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Euro ensembles were further north than the OP, in no way agreeing with the 18z GEFS the euro mean took it off the outerbanks right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 the euro mean took it off the outerbanks right? Here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 18GFS ind. members are interesting at 36 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Here you go yea i just looked, the ens mean starts the low off further north, but ultimately looks like it gets to the same position of the op at hr 144, the 168 map looks interesting with the miller b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 18GFS ind. members are interesting at 36 hours! If the 18Z NAM and many of the 18Z GFS ensemble members verified dead on it would be a very frustrating sunday afternoon and evening for many of us...basically a miss by 75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GFS ensemble mean has .25"-.50" line for all of Suffolk County, LI and the .50"-.75" line for the forks of LI. .10"-.25" is from eastern Jersey, thru NYC and on east. This is well west of operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 i gotta say the 23z RUC is coming in west from 22z which was already decently far west fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GFS ensemble mean has .25"-.50" line for all of Suffolk County, LI and the .50"-.75" line for the forks of LI. .10"-.25" is from eastern Jersey, thru NYC and on east. This is well west of operational. Thats about how much it had for a good part of the area for the 2/5 storm...of course this is a totally different setup....there was a good description about the entire thing in the New England thread by one of the posters....basically those semi-secondary or NW low centers the NAM and GFS are both sort of indicating on their runs which bring the precip near LI would need to become the dominant low center for the storm, if that happened we would see one of the worst modern day forecast busts.....at this point its hard to say why the models are showing those semi low centers to the NW...as one poster said it could be the model is seeing the inverted/norlun trough feature and sort of overdoing it...or it could be having some sort of convective issue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Thats about how much it had for a good part of the area for the 2/5 storm...of course this is a totally different setup....there was a good description about the entire thing in the New England thread by one of the posters....basically those semi-secondary or NW low centers the NAM and GFS are both sort of indicating on their runs which bring the precip near LI would need to become the dominant low center for the storm, if that happened we would see one of the worst modern day forecast busts.....at this point its hard to say why the models are showing those semi low centers to the NW...as one poster said it could be the model is seeing the inverted/norlun trough feature and sort of overdoing it...or it could be having some sort of convective issue... We'll see what tonights 0z models do. If NAM and Srefs come in west again, there's a good shot of accumulating snow. Especially Huntington east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If the 18Z NAM and many of the 18Z GFS ensemble members verified dead on it would be a very frustrating sunday afternoon and evening for many of us...basically a miss by 75 miles. A few days ago I posted about how I had a feeling this would happen...and that's why I haven't been watching the last day or two. Extremely frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just finished my Sabbath and been outta the loop: Are some people still hoping something happens tomorrow? If yes, what are the chances and how much are people hoping for? The only thing that may make me even consider hoping for a surprise tomorrow is the fact that the set up is overall very complex right now, something too hard for models to get down, and maybe just maybe things will come together for a little bit of something. But overall I've moved on and looking forward to seeing what the Xmas storm may bring us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just to ask, were those amounts on the 18z posted for tomorrows event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not a RUC fan, but just looked at 23Z RUC hour 15, 22Z RUC hour 16, 21Z RUC hour 17, and 20Z RUC hour 18...the low and precip appears closr on each ensuing one...also the 23Z RUC shows a closed 850 low center as well at hour 15 when the others did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not a RUC fan, but just looked at 23Z RUC hour 15, 22Z RUC hour 16, 21Z RUC hour 17, and 20Z RUC hour 18...the low and precip appears closr on each ensuing one...also the 23Z RUC shows a closed 850 low center as well at hour 15 when the others did not. yea the 23z RUC at 18h is actually rather nice, throws precip over all of the southern half of new jersey. Dont know how this model performs at this range though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yea the 23z RUC at 18h is actually rather nice, throws precip over all of the southern half of new jersey. Dont know how this model performs at this range though I'll emphasize as well, the direction of motion on that the three hours leading up to this frame is about 340-350. http://www.nco.ncep....uc_slp_018m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 wat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Based on what we're seeing on the latest guidance,over/under 1" accumulation for TTN? Of course, we still have to monitor that incoming s/w and resultant farther northwest surface reflection, but things are looking up a bit, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I would think that the precipitation would have to start taking more of a NW movement since looking at the radar ..all the precipitation is just about off the coast already...and looks to be pressing East Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Why do I have the feeling we are going to see SACRUS's pinned charts tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I would think that the precipitation would have to start taking more of a NW movement since looking at the radar ..all the precipitation is just about off the coast already...and looks to be pressing East Northeast Based off water vapor, the deepest moisture is also racing ENE and not swinging back to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Based on what we're seeing on the latest guidance,over/under 1" accumulation for TTN? Of course, we still have to monitor that incoming s/w and resultant farther northwest surface reflection, but things are looking up a bit, eh? I don't think TTN is going to see anything. Maybe 1-2" for the Cape if they're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I don't think TTN is going to see anything. Maybe 1-2" for the Cape if they're lucky. Agreed, maybe some flurries along the shore in places like Sandy Hook, Seaside , etc , not much west of the immediate coast. Close but no snow-gar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Agreed, maybe some flurries along the shore in places like Sandy Hook, Seaside , etc , not much west of the immediate coast. Close but no snow-gar http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/index_slp_l_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 East end would get about 6 inches if there is no mixing on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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