Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It is better for OBS, long commute for the forecasters. Transitional mets who were close to retiring and didn't want to move, it was a problem. Now most people live close and its actually less of a hassle. As much as I loved working at 30 Rock, I can't complain about the 15 minute drive to work now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 18z HRRR composite reflectivity for 0z Looks like virga on the northern end with 850mb RH real low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Also, the ETA6 is hitting bermuda so that doesn't help in the opposite way. Enjoy the rsm and eta solutions while you got them: SREF A major upgrade to SREF is planned now for FY11Q4 which eliminates the members based on the legacy Eta and RSM models and adds members based on the NEMS-NMMB. Membership will remain at 21 by having 7 members generated each by NMMB, WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM. This upgrade would also increase resolution from 32-25km to 22-25 km, add a BUFR output, and may transition to an ensemble perturbation approach. The WRF Development Testbed Center (DTC) is helping evaluate different initial perturbation possibilities. The Eta and RSM models will be discontinued, pending all dependencies on Eta and RSM models can be removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 and also remember that Upton doesnt forecast just for NYC their CWA stretches into eastern CT to the RI border. Geographically speaking the NWS station is relatively close to the middle of the CWA I think they have the toughest forecast area because occasionally their coastal zones do not act as coastal as you expect during winter events...coastal NJ is easy for Mt. Holly because no matter what a NNE, NE, E wind has an ocean component...same for Taunton, but for Upton sometimes that mix or changeover is delayed or does not happen at all...their coastal zones are much easier to keep trapped in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 RSM5 seems to have shifted 200 miles NW. Brings .25 to Central Jersey. I also find it funny that ETA5 also shifted NW, despite the fact that it's always been so robust. You'd think it would have corrected itself by now. It's not giving up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I think they have the toughest forecast area because occasionally their coastal zones do not act as coastal as you expect during winter events...coastal NJ is easy for Mt. Holly because no matter what a NNE, NE, E wind has an ocean component...same for Taunton, but for Upton sometimes that mix or changeover is delayed or does not happen at all...their coastal zones are much easier to keep trapped in the cold air. Very true, much of the CT coast and norther LI coast is not exposed to the open ocean and as a result are usually the last of coastal areas to change over (if at all) during marginal events. Not to mention Upton has to watch out for over 21 million people.....do they have the most populous CWA in the country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 12Z EURO ENSEMBLES ...better looking than I thought... matches the 0z euro ensemble mean closely Now can we keep this going for 6 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 heres the 18z rgem at 24 hrs, doesn't really support the nams closer to the coast idea, but does have the inverted trof or norlun signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Long Island and coastal CT...always a tricky forecast during winter storms...takes very, very little to throw a forecast off for that area... coastal ct= most sheltered coast in the NE, perhaps the coldest at times as well (maine gets some serious marine air invasions from easterly winds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Also, the ETA6 is hitting bermuda so that doesn't help in the opposite way. 12z GFS had some measurable here on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I've always argued that Fairfield County has respectable winters and the Bridgeport snowfall record is questionably low.. It is, I average around 35" which is very good for being within 10 miles of the coast. We do well in almost every type of storm...miller a/b overunning's usual give us a good front end dump too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I've always argued that Fairfield County has respectable winters and the Bridgeport snowfall record is questionably low.. Having grown up in New Fairfield (far NW corner of the County) in the late 70's and 80's, I can attest to some very respectable winters and a sizable difference in snowfall even as compared to Danbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GFS is rolling Lets see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I hear GFS is coming around to the NAM....not sure tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GFS is rolling Lets see what happens Its west too, light precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The GFS is a HAIR further west. Nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The GFS is a HAIR further west. Nothing significant. yeah i think its just picking up on the bigger precip shield, but that still wont cut it...On to the clipper/xmas threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saloo Kaloo Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Looking too see about the clipper event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 gfs a good bit further east with precip shield compared to 12z almost reaches phl for the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saloo Kaloo Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Since the first storm is weak looks like our clipper could be a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Since the first storm is weak looks like our clipper could be a bit stronger. 970MBs NOT weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I really like the Christmas storm. a lot of consistency/agreement on the gfs/euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GFS goes south and east on the clipper. Still brings accumulating snow. 6 runs in a row of accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I want this south and east for at least a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 18 Z GFS is much further south on the Christmas storm thru 144 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Vort energy is not as tightly wound around the H5 low and things are just generally more disorganized....as a result the storm passes a hair OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Total QPF on the 18 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Don't get your hopes up if you are north of philly for the christmas storm - EURO is suppressed - GFS trending that way - flow is still flat and progressive ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Don't get your hopes up if you are north of philly for the christmas storm - EURO is suppressed - GFS trending that way - flow is still flat and progressive ..... The storm is still 6-7 days out. no should be getting their hopes up or down. its too early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Don't get your hopes up if you are north of philly for the christmas storm - EURO is suppressed - GFS trending that way - flow is still flat and progressive ..... il take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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