tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 7:13 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The good news is the flow has been fast fast fast...in this case we want it to be as fast as possible for the shortwave to beat that 500mb low. what i dont get, is that h5 vortex is pretty far north like 300-400 miles wnw of maine, does that really have the capability of squashing the low that far south? It seems like the low should be further north, assuming we are talking about the same h5 vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 7:18 PM, RowanBrandon said: Why is the EURO so much slower and further south than the GFS? here is the h5 from the euro at hr 192, you see that big h5 low wnw of maine, the gfs has this low further north and west not squashing it as much. Atleast this is what i think the issue is in regards to why its further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 7:02 PM, Alpha5 said: H5 looks better though....I pointed out some things on both the UKMET and GFS, you'll see they are relatively close at H5 I'll be watching how the UKMET handles this system.It had the OTS solution 12z Thursday while the other models were hitting us with snow. From HPC discussion Thursday: 12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER OFF WHILE THE OP CMC HAS A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 7:18 PM, RowanBrandon said: Why is the EURO so much slower and further south than the GFS? Generically speaking the Euro has a slow bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 7:49 PM, bluewave said: I'll be watching how the UKMET handles this system.It had the OTS solution 12z Thursday while the other models were hitting us with snow. From HPC discussion Thursday: 12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER OFF WHILE THE OP CMC HAS A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK Relatively speaking for the last two events, the can ggem and fim were the steadiest in our corridor. The UKMET did not do well with last weekend's event, following it would have had more of an ill effect in the Great Lakes than our area. The fim output today is similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:04 PM, Rainshadow said: Relatively speaking for the last two events, the can ggem and fim were the steadiest in our corridor. The UKMET did not do well with last weekend's event, following it would have had more of an ill effect in the Great Lakes than our area. The fim output today is similar to the Euro. might wanna take a look at the current system..18z Nam says I'm not dead yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:04 PM, Rainshadow said: Relatively speaking for the last two events, the can ggem and fim were the steadiest in our corridor. The UKMET did not do well with last weekend's event, following it would have had more of an ill effect in the Great Lakes than our area. The fim output today is similar to the Euro. Right,the Euro did better with the storm last weekend.It hit it's 168 hr solution pretty much right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:15 PM, bluewave said: Right,the Euro did better with the storm last weekend.It hit it's 168 hr solution pretty much right on. The overall pattern looks more conducive and really at 168 hours thats all you ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:09 PM, KEITH L.I said: might wanna take a look at the current system..18z Nam says I'm not dead yet Yes, it puts out about an inch along the jersey coast and long island, maybe a litte more eastern end. Move it left 50 miles more west and many areas are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:04 PM, Rainshadow said: Relatively speaking for the last two events, the can ggem and fim were the steadiest in our corridor. The UKMET did not do well with last weekend's event, following it would have had more of an ill effect in the Great Lakes than our area. The fim output today is similar to the Euro. How is the FIM in general? I know it's experimental, but is it something we should regularly following like we do the major globals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:18 PM, Rainshadow said: The overall pattern looks more conducive and really at 168 hours thats all you ask for. It's good to see the PNA forecasted to rise heading into next weekend but we'll have to wait and see if all the pieces can come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:21 PM, gkrangers said: How is the FIM in general? I know it's experimental, but is it something we should regularly following like we do the major globals? I really don't know. I have been just taking looks at it for this weekend and last. It had alot of scraping solutions for this weekend and sided with the euro last weekend. For all I know it could be a stopped clock syndrome. But, since relatively speaking its had the right idea twice, I'm going to keep on looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:27 PM, bluewave said: It's good to see the PNA forecasted to rise heading into next weekend but we'll have to wait and see if all the pieces can come together. Yeah that was a big missing piece for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NAM at 60 has clipper system stronger and further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:31 PM, supermeh said: NAM at 60 has clipper system stronger and further north only issue now is that the coastal is basically sitting in the gulf of maine, meaning its even more likely to be sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Why do I just have a horrible feeling in my stomach about what is coming on the 00Z runs for tonight regarding tomorrow and Monday morning? Horrible as far as my forecasting busting, good for my personal snow desires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Actually, 18 z NAM .25 - .50 line touches LBI, Eastern LI and all of RI, touches Boston and the cape gets crushed. This just interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:34 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Why do I just have a horrible feeling in my stomach about what is coming on the 00Z runs for tonight regarding tomorrow and Monday morning? Horrible as far as my forecasting busting, good for my personal snow desires. can you please elaborate on this further? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:34 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Why do I just have a horrible feeling in my stomach about what is coming on the 00Z runs for tonight regarding tomorrow and Monday morning? Horrible as far as my forecasting busting, good for my personal snow desires. I'm with you, said it last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:35 PM, tombo82685 said: can you please elaborate on this further? I'm worried about the seemingly progressive inching of the precip shield closer on each run...of course I tend to always worry about my forecasts busting so its nothing unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:30 PM, Rainshadow said: I really don't know. I have been just taking looks at it for this weekend and last. It had alot of scraping solutions for this weekend and sided with the euro last weekend. For all I know it could be a stopped clock syndrome. But, since relatively speaking its had the right idea twice, I'm going to keep on looking. Do you have a link to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:36 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I'm worried about the seemingly progressive inching of the precip shield closer on each run...of course I tend to always worry about my forecasts busting so its nothing unusual. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PCNTOTNE_15z/srefloop.html I take it ETA5 is would bust your forecast big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:36 PM, gkrangers said: Do you have a link to it? http://fim.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Here is the FIM Model: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fimz&domain=244 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:38 PM, Rainshadow said: http://fim.noaa.gov/ Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:36 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I'm worried about the seemingly progressive inching of the precip shield closer on each run...of course I tend to always worry about my forecasts busting so its nothing unusual. i wouldn't worry yet, this could just be a bunk run, lets see what the gfs has. Cause the euro wasn't this close at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:38 PM, Alpha5 said: http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html I take it ETA5 is would bust your forecast big time ETA5+RSM2 FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:38 PM, Rainshadow said: http://fim.noaa.gov/ tony, im assuming this runs like the euro 12z and 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:42 PM, Zir0b said: ETA5+RSM2 FTW? Imagine if they were to be right.:whistle: Nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I have heard the NAM has a tendency to crush the N/W extent of the precipitation shield. On the 18z the .25 line it about 10 miles away from the .1 line in Southeast Coastal New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.