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NYC/PHL 12/21-12/22 Threat


hazwoper

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  On 12/18/2010 at 7:13 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

The good news is the flow has been fast fast fast...in this case we want it to be as fast as possible for the shortwave to beat that 500mb low.

what i dont get, is that h5 vortex is pretty far north like 300-400 miles wnw of maine, does that really have the capability of squashing the low that far south? It seems like the low should be further north, assuming we are talking about the same h5 vortex

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  On 12/18/2010 at 7:18 PM, RowanBrandon said:

Why is the EURO so much slower and further south than the GFS?

here is the h5 from the euro at hr 192, you see that big h5 low wnw of maine, the gfs has this low further north and west not squashing it as much. Atleast this is what i think the issue is in regards to why its further south.

12zeuro500mbHGHTNH192.gif

gfs_500_174m.gif

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  On 12/18/2010 at 7:02 PM, Alpha5 said:

H5 looks better though....I pointed out some things on both the UKMET and GFS, you'll see they are relatively close at H5

post-519-0-58973600-1292698922.gif

post-519-0-17762300-1292698929.gif

I'll be watching how the UKMET handles this system.It had the OTS solution 12z Thursday while the other models were hitting us with snow.

From HPC discussion Thursday:

12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER

OFF WHILE THE OP CMC HAS A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK

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  On 12/18/2010 at 7:49 PM, bluewave said:

I'll be watching how the UKMET handles this system.It had the OTS solution 12z Thursday while the other models were hitting us with snow.

From HPC discussion Thursday:

12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER

OFF WHILE THE OP CMC HAS A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK

Relatively speaking for the last two events, the can ggem and fim were the steadiest in our corridor. The UKMET did not do well with last weekend's event, following it would have had more of an ill effect in the Great Lakes than our area. The fim output today is similar to the Euro.

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  On 12/18/2010 at 8:04 PM, Rainshadow said:

Relatively speaking for the last two events, the can ggem and fim were the steadiest in our corridor. The UKMET did not do well with last weekend's event, following it would have had more of an ill effect in the Great Lakes than our area. The fim output today is similar to the Euro.

might wanna take a look at the current system..18z Nam says I'm not dead yet

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  On 12/18/2010 at 8:04 PM, Rainshadow said:

Relatively speaking for the last two events, the can ggem and fim were the steadiest in our corridor. The UKMET did not do well with last weekend's event, following it would have had more of an ill effect in the Great Lakes than our area. The fim output today is similar to the Euro.

Right,the Euro did better with the storm last weekend.It hit it's 168 hr solution pretty much right on.

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  On 12/18/2010 at 8:09 PM, KEITH L.I said:

might wanna take a look at the current system..18z Nam says I'm not dead yet

Yes, it puts out about an inch along the jersey coast and long island, maybe a litte more eastern end. Move it left 50 miles more west and many areas are in business.

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  On 12/18/2010 at 8:04 PM, Rainshadow said:

Relatively speaking for the last two events, the can ggem and fim were the steadiest in our corridor. The UKMET did not do well with last weekend's event, following it would have had more of an ill effect in the Great Lakes than our area. The fim output today is similar to the Euro.

How is the FIM in general? I know it's experimental, but is it something we should regularly following like we do the major globals?

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  On 12/18/2010 at 8:18 PM, Rainshadow said:

The overall pattern looks more conducive and really at 168 hours thats all you ask for.

It's good to see the PNA forecasted to rise heading into next weekend but we'll have to wait and see if all the pieces can come together.

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  On 12/18/2010 at 8:21 PM, gkrangers said:

How is the FIM in general? I know it's experimental, but is it something we should regularly following like we do the major globals?

I really don't know. I have been just taking looks at it for this weekend and last. It had alot of scraping solutions for this weekend and sided with the euro last weekend. For all I know it could be a stopped clock syndrome. But, since relatively speaking its had the right idea twice, I'm going to keep on looking.

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  On 12/18/2010 at 8:30 PM, Rainshadow said:

I really don't know. I have been just taking looks at it for this weekend and last. It had alot of scraping solutions for this weekend and sided with the euro last weekend. For all I know it could be a stopped clock syndrome. But, since relatively speaking its had the right idea twice, I'm going to keep on looking.

Do you have a link to it?

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  On 12/18/2010 at 8:36 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm worried about the seemingly progressive inching of the precip shield closer on each run...of course I tend to always worry about my forecasts busting so its nothing unusual.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PCNTOTNE_15z/srefloop.html

I take it ETA5 is would bust your forecast big time

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  On 12/18/2010 at 8:36 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm worried about the seemingly progressive inching of the precip shield closer on each run...of course I tend to always worry about my forecasts busting so its nothing unusual.

i wouldn't worry yet, this could just be a bunk run, lets see what the gfs has. Cause the euro wasn't this close at all.

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