NYC/PHL 12/21-12/22 Threat

[isnice]

One thing I have to say is, this system is quite a bit different from the system occuring this weekend, the Xmas storm should be easier to handle for the models, Im not saying they are correct this far out, but we shouldnt see as much waffing, especially inside 100 hours.

Whenever there's a phase involved, there will be waffling. (see DT's thread)

[blazess556]

I like this threat. We actually will have a +pna which should slow down the flow.

[Mr Torchey]

Looks like an inverted trough over eastern li, eastern ct on the king.

[tombo82685]

the clipper gets put through the blender then gets eaten by the mtns from the euro

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

the clipper gets put through the blender then gets eaten by the mtns from the euro

Not a surprise...now on to the main event.

[Mr Torchey]

QPF?

Dont know, I had asked Will/ORH, only because I saw the signal today on the rgem and nam, seems like that signal on the euro is a bit further east whereas the RGEM was ok for you and I.

[tombo82685]

QPF?

im not sure if its inverted trof related but li gets scraped by .01-.1...the heavier stuff is offshore

[tombo82685]

the christmas storm is starting to come out to the plains at hr 126

[tombo82685]

hr 132 has a sub 1008 low over north tx, lgt to mod precip over northern plains and central plains

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

hr 132 has a sub 1008 low over north tx, lgt to mod precip over northern plains and central plains

A little later than GFS but sounds similar nonetheless

[SACRUS]

A little later than GFS but sounds similar nonetheless

So many threads to track here on the 12z. It sounds better than the ggem and thats a good thing.. Anyone see or have the 12z ukie?

[earthlight]

The Euro looks a bit more suppressive so far with heights over the Northeast..but the northern stream is stronger.

[tombo82685]

hr 144 has a broad area of 1016 low pressure looks to be centerd over southern missouri or norther ark, northern stream looks like its starting to get involved.... lgt precip over lakes ten valley and northern and central plains

[SACRUS]

The Euro looks a bit more suppressive so far with heights over the Northeast..but the northern stream is stronger.

Thanks earthlite. Can you merge this with the 21/23 threat one? Just a thought

[earthlight]

The PNA ridge is much stronger this go around..

[jlewis1111]

tombo thanks for ur analysis great job as always

[tombo82685]

hr 150 broad area of 1016 pressure looks to be over western ten. lgt precip over northern plains back ten valley where some lgt to mod precip is

[tombo82685]

hr 156 sub 1012 low over northeast alabama lgt precip oh valley through ten valley and se states, lgt to mod precip over ten valley

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

hr 150 broad area of 1016 pressure looks to be over western ten. lgt precip over northern plains back ten valley where some lgt to mod precip is

Hmmm starting to differ a bit in terms of strength, but still could be decent.

[Zir0b]

how's the confluence looking like over the Northeast?

[tombo82685]

hr 162 broad area of 1016 pressure looks to be centered over western nc.. lgt precip ohio valley then m/d line south lgt to mod precip se states and central and sotuhern va

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The PNA ridge is much stronger this go around..

This could very well be KEY to this being a little more realistic a threat than this weekend's storm ever was. And there will be at least a nose of strong cold high pressure to the north/nw of us.

WX/PT

[tombo82685]

hr 168 has 2 area of 1008 pressure one in norther sc.southern nc the other right off hse...lgt precip central nj to i80 in pa south lgt to mod precip se va and se states

[earthlight]

The Euro continues to indicate a big northern stream shortwave..it's gotten stronger every run and has the heights closed off this run as it comes into play. It's still trying to get the PV involved. This run will probably escape east..but the signal is very strong right now.

[SACRUS]

168 HRS 12Z EURO SIGNIFICANT LOW OVER EASTERN SC

500 trough phasing

from the main forum

[tombo82685]

hr 174 1004 pressure bout 100-150 miles ene of hse lgt precip m/d line south

[tombo82685]

the trof is very positive tilted so the only escape route is ene

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

hr 168 has 2 area of 1008 pressure one in norther sc.southern nc the other right off hse...lgt precip central nj to i80 in pa south lgt to mod precip se va and se states

Great, another two low idea

[earthlight]

For comparison..check out the GFS H5 from 12z at 138 hrs. At that time the Euro has a closed 546dm upper level trough over South Dakota. The confluence is stronger over the Northeast, but it's indication of a very strong northern stream shortwave are pretty alarming at this range.

[tombo82685]

hr 180 the storm is heading ene with some lgt precip over va and delmarva