NYC/PHL 12/21-12/22 Threat

[Edge Weather]

Very good interaction with the Northern Stream at 144 hrs. in the Tennessee Valley.

[gkrangers]

Really starting to develop in the Tennessee Valley at 138 hrs.

Yeah, much stronger storm than the 6z with the low centered over Arkansas. Much heavier precip to its north so far.

[Edge Weather]

Snow makes it to Philly at 153 hrs.

[jrodd321]

The December 21st clipper keeps getting shred up. Looking like nothing more than snow showers at this point.

It was never anything more than snow showers for our area.

[blizzardof09]

I don't know if anybody will agree though with me, hopefully I can get a met response on this. This storm as being progged for 24th to 25th looks great so far and the set up with this storm looks to be "easier" compared to the last threat, but with the past models performances this week and how poor and relatively inconsistent they were wouldn't it be wise to take a step back and don't make any kind of false hopes till we get into the 96 hour or less range till the event?

[Edge Weather]

Low starting to really deepen near Cape Hatteras at 159 hrs.

[Edge Weather]

Sub 996mb low near Hatteras at 162 hrs, about to get captured by the northern stream and come north.

[Edge Weather]

Sub 988 near the VA Capes at 168 hrs., hammering DC

[chubbs]

I wasn't alive yet but my parents tell me how they got stuck in a snow drift just a few blocks away from our house in Bensalem on their home from NE Philly. They tell me they had a foot in Bensalem. Had to walk home the rest of the way.

One of our neighbors got stuck in the street in front of his house. I remember him arguing with the plow driver on Xmas eve

[Edge Weather]

171 hrs has not moved, DC getting crushed.

[Edge Weather]

Sub 984 off the DelMarva at 177 hrs. DC gets crushed, heavy snow through Boston

[Edge Weather]

Sub 976 off the NJ coast at 186 hrs,approaching the benchmark at 189

[RowanBrandon]

GFS has another big hit for Christmas Day.

5 straight runs of accumulating snow.

[gkrangers]

Beautiful run, especially for a little southwest of our area.

[SACRUS]

this is (i count) 5 straight runs of the gfs

[earthlight]

Still very far into the long range for my liking, but it's certainly good to see this signal

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f174.gif

[jrodd321]

That is one hell of a storm on 12z today. Loving the signal for this storm.

[Alpha5]

Euro was like this, but weaker at 0z

Not that far out too 150 hours, and no small annoying sw's to argue about, were looking at a big boy dislodging from the PAC NW ULL

[Edge Weather]

Total 60 hrs precip through 192 hrs.

[LVblizzard]

Euro was like this, but weaker at 0z

Not that far out too 150 hours, and no small annoying sw's to argue about, were looking at a big boy dislodging from the PAC NW ULL

Very simple setup with teleconnections in our favor. This is definitely a legit threat.

[green tube]

this is (i count) 5 straight runs of the gfs

only about 25 more runs and we're golden.

...or white, as the case may be.

[chubbs]

Nice trends on GFS with mid-week clipper getting a little further east + Xmas bomb.

[bmc10]

At least with the christmas threat we see some substantial west coast ridging!

[SACRUS]

only about 25 more runs and we're golden.

...or white, as the case may be.

Indeed, storms on a weekend. This already seems to have more (consistent) support already.

[TomieV]

Wont fall for it again

[Alpha5]

Oh no it didnt....

[chubbs]

This one should be more stable with well defined shortwave and large 50/50

[SnoSki14]

Isn't this another case where the shortwave needs to phase with the northern stream or else we just see a weak disturbance heading east and OTS? Seems like another thread the needle event where we need the confluence to be weaker and more amplification and phasing although this is more Nina-esque than the last threat. Appears to be strong miller B like system on the gfs.

Euro is a no go, same thing as this weekend, believe me, we're not getting snow on Christmas.

[blizzardof09]

I posted in the christmas threat thread also, but would it be wise after this weeks modeling inconsistency with this past storm that it would be wise to not overanalyze the models till the 96 hour or less mark? Granted the setup with this storm looks relitively "easier" than the other threat but I think just waiting till the 96 hour or less period to be getting pumped about this system would be a better approach. Would like an opinion, thank you

[HSNN4]

Well the 96 storm was like this where the EURO and GFS where neck and neck a week out before it hit it was a horse race by the models.