NYC/PHL 12/21-12/22 Threat

[earthlight]

Well I would pass on this morning's afd, I know the person who wrote it.

Yeah, I usually pass on his AFD's too

[Rainshadow]

I really like tonight's Euro in regards to the H5 heights and surface low track w/ the Christmas potential. That's a pretty good pattern for getting some overrunning type snows into the Northern Mid Atlantic. The surface low tracks from Eastern KS basically into Western TN and then redevelops off the Mid-Atlantic coast. It's a ways away but the GEFS means also offer some hope.

The pattern is there, before it goes it will deliver. Heights are pretty suppressed across the conus even if the flow is coming from some part of the Pacific.

Nzucker, the 00z nam had measurable in Tennessee, the nam seems to still have spin-up problems generating pcpn in its first 6 hours. Looks like its right under the jet streak, the problem is the jet outruns the system for our latitude.

Have a good night (morning?) everyone.

[Dark Energy]

Yeah, I usually pass on his AFD's too

Tony's! Never!!!

[SnowGoose69]

The money quote was from the guy who said we don't have winters anymore, which was the prevailing thought for the public during the winters of the mid-'80's to the early-'90's.

At some point when I read that article about 2 years ago, there was a link from it to an article written 3-4 days earlier and some NWS NYC meteorologist at the time was quoted, the article was about how weak the winter had been to that point and he said..."we might see some rain on Friday but at this point no signs of snow are on the horizon" Amazing that only 4-5 days before the 89 event they did not even expect it to hit NYC, much less be a snow event!

[earthlight]

Tony's! Never!!!

Best around if you ask me..

[Dark Energy]

At some point when I read that article about 2 years ago, there was a link from it to an article written 3-4 days earlier and some NWS NYC meteorologist at the time was quoted, the article was about how weak the winter had been to that point and he said..."we might see some rain on Friday but at this point no signs of snow are on the horizon" Amazing that only 4-5 days before the 89 event they did not even expect it to hit NYC, much less be a snow event!

you do realize that met interns usually answer the phones at most nws offices. it wasnt likely that a seasoned met was on the line that day.

[earthlight]

you do realize that met interns usually answer the phones at most nws offices. it wasnt likely that a seasoned met was on the line that day.

Isn't he talking about a storm in like 1988?

Lord I am so confused...usually a good sign it's time for bed.

Goodnight dudes.

[SnowGoose69]

you do realize that met interns usually answer the phones at most nws offices. it wasnt likely that a seasoned met was on the line that day.

I don't believe he was an intern, I recalled the name and I think he was one of the senior mets, he was old enough that he was gone by the time they moved to Upton in like 93 or 94 but the name is not coming to me now....but you are correct, all the quotes I see in newsday etc. are always the interns.

[Dark Energy]

Isn't he talking about a storm in like 1988?

Lord I am so confused...usually a good sign it's time for bed.

Goodnight dudes.

doesnt matter. The protocal at most nws offices is that interns take the calls.

[Rainshadow]

Best around if you ask me..

Thank-you for your very kind words.

[Rainshadow]

I don't believe he was an intern, I recalled the name and I think he was one of the senior mets, he was old enough that he was gone by the time they moved to Upton in like 93 or 94 but the name is not coming to me now....but you are correct, all the quotes I see in newsday etc. are always the interns.

I'm getting confused about which event (or non-event). Was that the one that dropped two feet of snow in ACY and nearly nothing in NYC? I'm going to just throw some names out because I was an intern in NYC that winter: Joe Harrison, Tom Grant, Ed Yandrich, Bob Stalker, Jim Poirier, Ralph Izzo, Nick Condos, Bob Mchelhearn, Ben Scott, Mike Washington, Steve Thomas, Stan Wasserman. Joe Harrison issued a winter storm warning for that storm (Feb '89), he was extremely upset when it didn't snow, it bothered him for years until he retired.

I'll check this thread later today. good night again.

[SnowGoose69]

I'm getting confused about which event (or non-event). Was that the one that dropped two feet of snow in ACY and nearly nothing in NYC? I'm going to just throw some names out because I was an intern in NYC that winter: Joe Harrison, Tom Grant, Ed Yandrich, Bob Stalker, Jim Poirier, Ralph Izzo, Nick Condos, Bob Mchelhearn, Ben Scott, Mike Washington, Steve Thomas, Stan Wasserman. Joe Harrison issued a winter storm warning for that storm (Feb '89), he was extremely upset when it didn't snow, it bothered him for years until he retired.

I'll check this thread later today. good night again.

It was Stan Wasserman who was quoted I believe...I just remembered a few other things from that list of names...Ed Yandrich if I remember correctly I read in some publication back in school during the 90s was the forecaster who issued the blizzard warning the morning of the April 1982 event and won some sort of award for it....Izzo I met at an open house once I believe, if he's the guy who had an exceptionally deep voice.....Stalker is an unforgettable name as well, I'm pretty sure anyone who watched TWC in the 80s and 90s remembers that one from the special statements I think it did snow on Long Island during that event, but I don't think it was quite warning criteria, maybe 3-4 inches?

[SteveB]

This threat still looking really good through 3 consecutive runs of the GFS.

Here's to hoping the Euro comes around and this system can hang on for the next week (ugh).

GFS still has it and the Euro is on board with the setup leading up to the storm.

Do we buy it or wait this one out??

Seems like a true W->E system may be our only hope in this pattern, so while I do like the potential, I'm still a bit hesitant to put both feet on board....yet.

[Voyager]

GFS still has it and the Euro is on board with the setup leading up to the storm.

Do we buy it or wait this one out??

Seems like a true W->E system may be our only hope in this pattern, so while I do like the potential, I'm still a bit hesitant to put both feet on board....yet.

I'm hesitant to even stick one toe in the water at this point.

[lindywx]

How great it would be after a 44 year hiatus to have a Christmas Eve Snowstorm. Still to this day my memories of that storm are vivid and unfortuneately not much else is. Actually, the only other big Christmas Eve event I can recall is the Great Arctic Front passage of 1980. There are some similarities with the Xmas threat and the 1966 storm. That one came out of West Texas and took a more southern track and then eventualy jumped to and redeveloped on the coastal front before heading northeast. This one looks to take a more northern west-east track but also intensifies off the coast. The sprawling high over the northern plains extending eastward is similar in both cases and sets up a nice thermal gradient for overrunning snow to develop. The ridge was steeper hence the trough deeper with the 1966 storm but both have an ULL north of the Great Lakes. Maybe not a great analog but somewhat similar.

[uncle W]

How great it would be after a 44 year hiatus to have a Christmas Eve Snowstorm. Still to this day my memories of that storm are vivid and unfortuneately not much else is. Actually, the only other big Christmas Eve event I can recall is the Great Arctic Front passage of 1980. There are some similarities with the Xmas threat and the 1966 storm. That one came out of West Texas and took a more southern track and then eventualy jumped to and redeveloped on the coastal front before heading northeast. This one looks to take a more northern west-east track but also intensifies off the coast. The sprawling high over the northern plains extending eastward is similar in both cases and sets up a nice thermal gradient for overrunning snow to develop. The ridge was steeper hence the trough deeper with the 1966 storm but both have an ULL north of the Great Lakes. Maybe not a great analog but somewhat similar.

the 1966 storm was great when you look back on it...But at the time the change to sleet in the afternoon kept us from getting a foot...1961 and 1963 are close to that year...5"+ on the ground Christmas morning three times in in six years...It hasn't happen since...

[WeatherX]

Me likey, me likey very much

[chubbs]

12/24/66 is one of those storms you never forget (delco phl suburbs). Awoke to light snow with temps in mid 20s. Frustratingly light snow in the morning/early afternoon not much more than an inch. Then a steady increase in intensity to moderate snow in the late afternoon and heavy snow in the evening. After dinner big dry flakes filled the air and you could almost see the snow accumulate. Winding down by late evening. Ended up with roughly a foot. Crystal clear Xmas AM

[SACRUS]

Maybe we should merge this thread with the Christmas threat thread?

GFS and Euro looking good for Christmas / 12/26. GGEM remains the most suppressed. Its nice to see some consistency and hope it conitnues this time around.

UK has the sw at 144 and is also looking farily good

[RowanBrandon]

4 straight runs of accumulating snow on the GFS now.(Christmas)

[hazwoper]

Don't merge just yet. I don;t start threads so maybe my mojo is working with That Chrismas Threat thread

[ChescoWx]

I had just turned 3 that Christmas Eve but I do remember it for watching santa running between houses in my neighborhood in NE Philly and falling face first in front of my house in the snow. It was snowing with thunder and lightning. I don't remember how much NE Philly received but here in Chester County we received over 20" of snow that Christmas Eve.

Merry Christmas Season to all!

[hazwoper]

I wasn't alive yet but my parents tell me how they got stuck in a snow drift just a few blocks away from our house in Bensalem on their home from NE Philly. They tell me they had a foot in Bensalem. Had to walk home the rest of the way.

[SnoSki14]

I don't know why the gfs blows this storm so much off along and off the coast for Christmas, it seems highly unlikely in the pattern we're in. The system kind of looks like your typical clipper but with a little kick, it'll probably get stronger as it treks east but nowhere near as strong as the gfs indicates. Also, there's a possibility that the confluence shreds it apart before it can do anything which is why I'm not concerned at this moment. I do hope to have some snow on Christmas, but maybe that's asking for too much.

[JTA66]

I was 3 months old for Christmas 1966. But growing up, my parents always told me about the snowstorm that year.

I remember the arctic outbreak of 1980. The light/moderate snowfall of 2002. And a couple of nickel and dime snow events over the years on Christmas Eve/Day.

But I've never experience a really good snow storm on Christmas. Every year I keep my fingers crossed. Is this the year?

[jrodd321]

DGEX now jumping on for the storm. Has it right off the coast now where it had absolutely nothing previous runs.

[RowanBrandon]

The December 21st clipper keeps getting shred up. Looking like nothing more than snow showers at this point.

[gkrangers]

The December 21st clipper keeps getting shred up. Looking like nothing more than snow showers at this point.

Maybe I should contemplate a move to the upper midwest, just for routine clipper snows.

[Edge Weather]

At 129 hrs you can already see the interaction between the southern stream and the northern stream. This should be interesting this run.

[Edge Weather]

Really starting to develop in the Tennessee Valley at 138 hrs.