SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 6:01 AM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Um i might be wrong, but I dont think GGEM was suppressed I think it was just weak...low in ohio valley wasnt it? it was more north than 12z but remained weak, only grazing the area. Trend noted. Onto the more important guidance.. now back to tombo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 5:58 AM, SACRUS said: Usually hits there around 2:00 but there are some other sites I lost the links to that it should be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 5:50 AM, earthlight said: Well this is my junior year break...let's repeat the results. This is my sophomore break. Let's not have a repeat winter of my sophomore year in high school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 5:50 AM, tornadojay said: Nice! I'll to that one! I'm way ahead of you on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 im not sure what would happen if your extropolate that ukmet map post 144. There is some nice ridgng out ahead of that storm, trof looks like its neutral, ridge axis is a little to far east. So my guess would be it would scoot off hse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 6:02 AM, tombo82685 said: Thanks tombo I must have been thinking dst. UK looks a bit south of the GFS, perhaps more in line with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GGEM was well north with the s/w, it doesnt match up with the Ukie IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 6:07 AM, SACRUS said: Thanks tombo I must have been thinking dst. UK looks a bit south of the GFS, perhaps more in line with the GGEM. No worry, i wasn't trying to call you out on it. That was the last post i saw of yours so i just replied to that. ukmet looks exactly like the 12z euro maybe a lil further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 6:02 AM, tombo82685 said: <br /><img src="http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif" /> This looks like much better positioning for folks down my way than the GFS. You boys need to move this to the main forum. Great stuff as always and much appreciated!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 6:09 AM, tombo82685 said: No worry, i wasn't trying to call you out on it. That was the last post i saw of yours so i just replied to that. ukmet looks exactly like the 12z euro maybe a lil further south. yeah, i'd chalk the ukmet in the miss or graze column. Hoping the ecm is more supportive of the storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 90 n 96 sne is getting there norlun/inverted trof up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 102 brings some lgt precip into nyc and northern nj from the inverted trof/norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I know this is a PHI and NYC thread but I just want to point out NWS already has 50% chance of snow for Baltimore Xmas eve and day...pretty bullish for this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 108 still some lgt precip over nyc metro and northern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Shortwave is much more amplified this run at 114 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 6:16 AM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I know this is a PHI and NYC thread but I just want to point out NWS already has 50% chance of snow for Baltimore Xmas eve and day...pretty bullish for this stage. mt holly has 40 i believe, correct me if im wrong but i believe thats what i saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Does the Euro not have any forecast maps at the Jet stream level?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 6:19 AM, earthlight said: Shortwave is much more amplified this run at 114 hrs Assuming over ks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 6:19 AM, tombo82685 said: mt holly has 40 i believe, correct me if im wrong but i believe thats what i saw. You are correct. 40% chance in Somerset County, NJ for Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 120 has a 1004 low in sw kansas lgt precip from northern plains to tx, lgt to mod precip over northern plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The height pattern is not terribly far off from the GFS but from what I can see there is no northern stream piece ready to phase in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 alot higher hgts in the east, 500mb low in canada is also further north so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Ridging out ahead of the shortwave looks great at 126..still don't see the big N stream amplification coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 sub 1012 over north central oklahoma at hr 126, lgt to mod precip from canada border to oklahoma with some mod precip in ks and mo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 6:22 AM, tombo82685 said: alot higher hgts in the east, 500mb low in canada is also further north so far. Yeah, this run is definitely improving. But I think we need the northern stream phase in order to create a GFS type solution. Otherwise this shortwave can try and do the work itself, but if it's just a hair too weak the surface low won't come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The ridge axis in the west is also stronger and further west than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 132 has a sub 1012 low over sw missouri lgt to mod precip from southern mn to ark, mod precip over missouri , southern iowa and western il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Here comes the northern stream at 132 hours..the ridging ahead of the system and the PNA ridge building out are really sights to see...haven't seen it yet this winter. This run may still be a bit south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Should be noted that at 132 hours the GFS is way more phased in with the N stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 See the RUC has caught up with reality and keeps the NYC area dry. Maybe it should not be run past hour 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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