Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:42 PM, tombo82685 said: tony, im assuming this runs like the euro 12z and 0z? Yup, twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 does anyone have a link to that 48hr ruc forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:45 PM, Collegestudent11 said: I have heard the NAM has a tendency to crush the N/W extent of the precipitation shield. On the 18z the .25 line it about 10 miles away from the .1 line in Southeast Coastal New Jersey. The nam tendency is the opposite, it tends to place the surface low too far northwest into the cold air. What is occurring with the 18z nam has to do with short wave that will be in Missouri this evening, that is the point to investigate with the soundings this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 My winds were out of the WSW(now westerly) for a time, shouldn't the winds be coming from the north? Alot of interesting stuff going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:42 PM, Ericjcrash said: Imagine if they were to be right.:whistle: Nightmare. I think a significant snowfall is definitely possible for the twin forks, norlun trough or not, these systems not always but frequently manage to have the precip shield a bit NW of where its forecast to be...I might have put a watch out for the east suffolk zones this afternoon to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:49 PM, Rainshadow said: The nam tendency is the opposite, it tends to place the surface low too far northwest into the cold air. What is occurring with the 18z nam has to do with short wave that will be in Missouri this evening, that is the point to investigate with the soundings this evening. long shot but what would we need that shortwave to do to make it more "interesting" for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:49 PM, Rainshadow said: The nam tendency is the opposite, it tends to place the surface low too far northwest into the cold air. What is occurring with the 18z nam has to do with short wave that will be in Missouri this evening, that is the point to investigate with the soundings this evening. I'm aware it does that, but doesn't it sometimes have the gradient of the precip a bit sharper than actually verifies on alot of systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:49 PM, Rainshadow said: The nam tendency is the opposite, it tends to place the surface low too far northwest into the cold air. What is occurring with the 18z nam has to do with short wave that will be in Missouri this evening, that is the point to investigate with the soundings this evening. Does it predict the the s/w will pull the low back towards the area, and thus the shift westward? On the NAM question, i noticed the GFS provides more qpf coverage on maps than others Is this due to the lower resolution, and thus it just decided to put large precipitation totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:42 PM, Zir0b said: ETA5+RSM2 FTW? ETA 5 It would have many people dumbfounded monday morning when they wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:50 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I think a significant snowfall is definitely possible for the twin forks, norlun trough or not, these systems not always but frequently manage to have the precip shield a bit NW of where its forecast to be...I might have put a watch out for the east suffolk zones this afternoon to be safe. You work at NWS upton? i always wondered why the NWS office was never in New York City proper, instead of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:53 PM, Collegestudent11 said: You work at NWS upton? i always wondered why the NWS office was never in New York City proper, instead of Long Island. No...I believe it was moved due to the doppler radar installation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:53 PM, Collegestudent11 said: You work at NWS upton? i always wondered why the NWS office was never in New York City proper, instead of Long Island. Cheaper rent on Long Island. It's on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory. There are probably benefits to having facilities like that collocated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It was until 1993. On 12/18/2010 at 8:53 PM, Collegestudent11 said: You work at NWS upton? i always wondered why the NWS office was never in New York City proper, instead of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:51 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I'm aware it does that, but doesn't it sometimes have the gradient of the precip a bit sharper than actually verifies on alot of systems? The nam qpf overall is just frustrating. Alot of times its spin up is so slow its already 6 hrs late at fcst hour 12 and in the short term too stingy with qpf. But then once it gets the idea about qpf it overdoes it, sussex county de on the 06z nam the other night was suppose to get .25" w/e, didn't event get half and the same run IIRC didn't bring measurable to PHL which was also wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Interesting, i always wondered about the seemingly random locations for NWS offices, such as Mount Holly, Upton, and Binghamton. The first time i heard about upton, i had to google it to find out where it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:50 PM, tombo82685 said: long shot but what would we need that shortwave to do to make it more "interesting" for our area? I think it has to get here faster, but this is a guess on my part, I can't overlay features I want from home. I need an awips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:54 PM, SnowGoose69 said: No...I believe it was moved due to the doppler radar installation. The Doppler that hits the water tower behind it which messes with the scan of the Orange County area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 15z SREF coming in better than 9z. 9z 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:54 PM, SnowGoose69 said: No...I believe it was moved due to the doppler radar installation. That would be a thread in itself on how the radar got there. Good luck with Long Island, I must admit I didnt think we were very good with Suffolk County when I was still working at 30 Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/history.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:59 PM, bluewave said: 15z SREF coming in better than 9z. 9z 15z you can see majority are out to sea, the 2 wet ones skew the mean pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:58 PM, Collegestudent11 said: Interesting, i always wondered about the seemingly random locations for NWS offices, such as Mount Holly, Upton, and Binghamton. The first time i heard about upton, i had to google it to find out where it was. The idea was to move it out of the cities to remove ground clutter problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 9:03 PM, Rainshadow said: The idea was to move it out of the cities to remove ground clutter problems. It is better for OBS, long commute for the forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 9:02 PM, tombo82685 said: you can see majority are out to sea, the 2 wet ones skew the mean pretty good. Yeah,but some of the other less extreme members are just a tad wetter also. 12z GFS had some measurable for the LI Crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not for nothing, but the individual 15z SREF's do look further NW then the 9z SREF's did. On 12/18/2010 at 9:02 PM, tombo82685 said: you can see majority are out to sea, the 2 wet ones skew the mean pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 9:04 PM, Collegestudent11 said: It is better for OBS, long commute for the forecasters. and also remember that Upton doesnt forecast just for NYC their CWA stretches into eastern CT to the RI border. Geographically speaking the NWS station is relatively close to the middle of the CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 9:05 PM, bluewave said: Yeah,but some of the other less extreme members are just a tad wetter also. On 12/18/2010 at 9:05 PM, Rtd208 said: Not for nothing, but the individual 15z SREF's do look further NW then the 9z SREF's did. yea i deff agree...the 18z rgem is coming out now, lets see what this show for li and jerz shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 9:04 PM, Collegestudent11 said: It is better for OBS, long commute for the forecasters. I'm sure plenty of them live on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 8:53 PM, Yes_Probably_Maybe_No said: ETA 5 It would have many people dumbfounded monday morning when they wake up. an Indian Grocery in town has a sign on its door that says "HEAVY SNOW STORM TONIGHT" So I guess ETA5 is right after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 9:05 PM, bluewave said: Yeah,but some of the other less extreme members are just a tad wetter also. Also, the ETA6 is hitting bermuda so that doesn't help in the opposite way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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