hazwoper Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 6:29 AM, A-L-E-X said: It was a classic huh. Lol, I never saw it or heard of it before now. Good lord you must be young. It is played every year (since 1968) and is the most well known Christmas special along with Charlie Brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 hr 156 santa has stopped in chicago making his way towards the ohio valley...this looks good, spot on with gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 6:30 AM, earthlight said: Euro has the shortwave at 150...a bit stronger with the confluence than the GFS but the surface low is in a similar spot and the precipitation field looks good so far. Let's see if it can trend better here. All of the guidance now has the potential..so I think it's safe to say we have something to watch here. That's what I was thinking.. all the models have the shortwave. From there, we will have to see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Christmas eve morning 12z and the Euro has a swath of snow heading east through the Upper midwest and OH Valley..knocking on DC's door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Northern stream trying to get involved at 156...this may end up a bit worse than the GFS though given the confluence over the east. Still good to see it has the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 hr 162 1012 low over missouri, broad area of lgt precip with some lgt to mod shades, lost some of its punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The low is very weak and over the MS river valley at 162..but the height field is amplifying, or at least trying to. This run will probably still give DC a white xmas morning...looks to be too much confluence up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 6:33 AM, earthlight said: Northern stream trying to get involved at 156...this may end up a bit worse than the GFS though given the confluence over the east. Still good to see it has the system. Why would this be worse if it phased more? Could it drive a cutter west of us despite the confluence, or just suppressed? Wouldn't phasing eliminate the threat of suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 6:31 AM, hazwoper said: Good lord you must be young. It is played every year (since 1968) and is the most well known Christmas special along with Charlie Brown. Im going to buy it though-- if we get snow on Christmas Day, it'll definitely put me in that mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Lol, it's phasing in the PV at 168...surface reflection is crap so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 6:34 AM, nzucker said: Why would this be worse if it phased more? Could it drive a cutter west of us despite the confluence, or just suppressed? Wouldn't phasing eliminate the threat of suppression? Sounds like that -4SD NAO signal doing its dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 hr 168 broad area of 1012 pressure over western ky, lgt to mod precip for tn and ky, lgt precip up into mich, wisc,ohio,, wpa n wny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 6:34 AM, nzucker said: Why would this be worse if it phased more? Could it drive a cutter west of us despite the confluence, or just suppressed? Wouldn't phasing eliminate the threat of suppression? I don't think there's much room for this to cut inland given the height field and orientation..but that could all change so who knows right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yup here comes a phase at 174..looks a bit south and east so far for my liking. DC snowing on Christmas morning at 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 hr 174 sub 1012 low over eastern ten lgt precip over oh valley and m/d line south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Nice hit for DC at 180 hrs..nothing too heavy but it's definitely moderate precip there 12z Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 hr 180 sub 1012 low over sw va lgt precip over pa central jerz south...lgt to mod precip m/d line south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 hr 180 mod snow from central Va to baltimore......light snow up to phl..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 186 the Pv is phasing in big time now with a lobe coming in over the Lakes...snowstorm DC-PHL-NYC (lighter in NYC)...1008mb surface low off the coast southeast of OC, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 6:40 AM, tombo82685 said: hr 180 sub 1012 low over sw va lgt precip over pa central jerz south...lgt to mod precip m/d line south That's an improvement for the Euro.. and we all know there will be changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Escapes east at 192..light snow hanging back to NYC and PHL. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 hr 186 sub 1008 low 75 miles east of norfolk, lgt precip for nyc, i78 south lgt to mod precip, with mod over delmarva back to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 6:40 AM, tombo82685 said: hr 180 sub 1012 low over sw va lgt precip over pa central jerz south...lgt to mod precip m/d line south Sounds pretty close to the GFS to me. A tad further south with precip, but low placement seems similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 6:41 AM, earthlight said: 186 the Pv is phasing in big time now with a lobe coming in over the Lakes...snowstorm DC-PHL-NYC (lighter in NYC)...1008mb surface low off the coast southeast of OC, MD. Maybe im wrong, but sounds somewhat similar to GFS, surface anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 hr 192 storm moves out lgt precip over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yeah...this has no chance of cutting into the lakes with this height orientation. There would have to be significant changes for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 6:41 AM, earthlight said: 186 the Pv is phasing in big time now with a lobe coming in over the Lakes...snowstorm DC-PHL-NYC (lighter in NYC)...1008mb surface low off the coast southeast of OC, MD. Cue the sleepless nights and days for snowlovers. Here is something that we could do with every threat. We could put a pinned thread and outline what could cause the storm to miss, ie synoptic features that might change. It would probably provide for less posts about what is happening, and consolidate and streamline the entire posting process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Could anyone estimate precip totals for PHL, NYC, DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 DC: 0.5 PHL: 0.3 NYC: 0.25 I like the synoptic setup...potential for a big system if the confluence lifts out any faster. I'm off to bed..later dudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Good thing is at least we have consensus on a storm for a couple runs and a hit for DC to PHI, As I said on another regional thread, I like the threat, its a west to east system, models should handle it better, not many other S/W's to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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