tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 santa bought us all new bmw's wooo, hits us good hr 174 on joy to the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 174 mod snow for the tri state...low over se VA hr 180 miller b fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Very nice H5 setup on the GFS...great overrunning redeveloper setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:22 AM, tombo82685 said: santa is looming at hr 156, does he bring coal or gifts this run.... If you like snow, it looks like gifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 If the GFS has any semblance of a clue, this h5 setup would be very supportive of a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:25 AM, SnowGoose69 said: 91-92 had more snow by now in NYC than this winter does..... by 0.6 inches...of course the next snow did not fall til March That was a stretch of winters where we held onto each snow flake, not knowing when the next would arrive. 4" snowstorms were considered like blizzards back then lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:28 AM, A-L-E-X said: That was a stretch of winters where we held onto each snow flake, not knowing when the next would arrive. 4" snowstorms were considered like blizzards back then lol. 91-92 looked assured of shattering the 72-73 record by about a mile...I think we had not even one inch as of 3/14 and then suddenly in 4 days picked up over 10-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:27 AM, earthlight said: Very nice H5 setup on the GFS...great overrunning redeveloper setup. I know people love strong lows-- but we get those to work out so rarely-- overrunning is my favorite type of snow, storm usually lasts a long time and has a large areal coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:30 AM, SnowGoose69 said: 91-92 looked assured of shattering the 72-73 record by about a mile...I think we had not even one inch as of 3/14 and then suddenly in 4 days picked up over 10-12 inches. I remember we talked about that-- I think NYC had its first 6 inch snowstorm in a few years to end that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Polar Vortex phases in at 190..where have we seen this before? Much more support for a stronger shortwave this time around. The shortwave is very strong as it is literally a large piece of the big ULL over the Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 So long as we can keep that setup in SE Canada this event has a better chance of occurring....phasing or no phasing some snow would likely happen either way....this event needs much less "help" to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:30 AM, earthlight said: Polar Vortex phases in at 190..where have we seen this before? Much more support for a stronger shortwave this time around. The shortwave is very strong as it is literally a large piece of the big ULL over the Pac. Talk about perfect timing if it occurs. Snow starting Christmas Eve, storm peaking Christmas Day. I'm sure all the pain of this weekend would be taken away if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:27 AM, earthlight said: If the GFS has any semblance of a clue, this h5 setup would be very supportive of a snowstorm. Be nice to get some support from the ecm and ggem. Well it looks like the tracking continues. Rockin around the gfs, have a holly jolly time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:30 AM, A-L-E-X said: I know people love strong lows-- but we get those to work out so rarely-- overrunning is my favorite type of snow, storm usually lasts a long time and has a large areal coverage. This is a great overrunning pattern and gradient with the heights to our north if we can get a good shortwave to come out of the southwest--which the GFS is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:32 AM, SnowGoose69 said: So long as we can keep that setup in SE Canada this event has a better chance of occurring....phasing or no phasing some snow would likely happen either way. Strongly agree--and the Euro weeklies and GEFS means keep the block strongly in place through the next 10-14 days..which suggests things aren't changing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:33 AM, earthlight said: This is a great overrunning pattern and gradient with the heights to our north if we can get a good shortwave to come out of the southwest--which the GFS is doing. Overrunning and gradient-- sounds a bit like 93-94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 This threat still looking really good through 3 consecutive runs of the GFS. Here's to hoping the Euro comes around and this system can hang on for the next week (ugh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 This would be a great Christmas gift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 3 straight runs for the GFS of accumulating snow for Christmas Day. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:34 AM, A-L-E-X said: Overrunning and gradient-- sounds a bit like 93-94 Some great events that winter. 6 more days of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GFS then loads up another about HR 276! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:39 AM, RowanBrandon said: GFS then loads up another about HR 276! How are you getting data that far out? I'm only on hr 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:40 AM, ARyan said: How are you getting data that far out? I'm only on hr 168. NCEP site: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/model_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I know, I know...it's a long way away but did you see what is rolling up the coast 3 days after X-mas? It would be the 3rd storm in this pattern and isn't that usually the biggest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:40 AM, RowanBrandon said: NCEP site: http://www.nco.ncep....0/model_l.shtml Huh. Now I have it. Don't know what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:42 AM, Jet-Phase said: I know, I know...it's a long way away but did you see what is rolling up the coast 3 days after X-mas? It would be the 3rd storm in this pattern and isn't that usually the biggest? Old wives' tale. Depends on the synoptics. Sometimes, it happens perfectly and the storms do set each other up, but sometimes, they completely break the favorable pattern down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 HR 384 shows a nasty SE ridge building. First time I have seen the GFS break down the pattern by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:33 AM, earthlight said: This is a great overrunning pattern and gradient with the heights to our north if we can get a good shortwave to come out of the southwest--which the GFS is doing. and although not in an ideal position, there's a nice ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:44 AM, RowanBrandon said: HR 384 shows a nasty SE ridge building. First time I have seen the GFS break down the pattern by the end of the run. 12 days ago it did that on the 20th...we see how that worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 4:45 AM, SnowGoose69 said: 12 days ago it did that on the 20th...we see how that worked out. Exactly, it's done it from time to time. Last run was a severe Arctic chill at 384. 384 should not be there at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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