ROOSTA Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 BD is making some progression SW. Immediate coastal obs. in New Hampshire are now reporting NE winds and the whole of Maine is enjoying a reprieve from the dank crap. All it will take is just one cell to pop and beachfront locals in Mass should swing over on the outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Hopefully it doesn't make much more progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 @WX1BOX: SKYWARN Activation with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT to monitor svr wx/flash flood... http://t.co/KckmBbjY7M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Hopefully it doesn't make much more progress.It is through CON now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 where's all the heavy rains forecast for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Are we certain there won't be a BD into NE/E areas this afternoon? High resolution visible imagery loop shows that an air mass is rolling and wedging back S along the ME/NH coast, lifting this hazy humid murk and producing an excessively dense llv strata loading behind the boundary. There is currently a 1028 mb high slipping N of ME, and that combined with our unique topography that so uniquely feeds back into BD phenomenon is kind of a touch-and-go set up to me -- could see leafs on trees start flipping over toward the SW along with flags, bit more than models would suggest. Just wonderin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 My yard is a swamp, Mushrooms are abundant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 This is one of the sickest air masses... It's 80 of 74 is a few places. I bit you could find these numbers in a S/A jungle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 What say ye? maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 You can see the progression nicely on satellite. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ne/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 You can see the progression nicely on satellite. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ne/flash-vis.html even better on: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/box/mflash-rgb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 where's all the heavy rains forecast for today? Patience ... If it is going to happen it will take place with destablization/diabatic heating later this afternoon, which has been weak to this point because the area deals with lots of debris/dirty warm sector skies. There is modest heating taking place, however (LWM is 81/72!). Where a TCU matures would dumb just incredible silvery air blind choking fall rates in an air mass like this, and given to the stream line nature to the deep layer flow, training would add to that concern. We just are not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 This is one of the sickest air masses... It's 80 of 74 is a few places. I bit you could find these numbers in a S/A jungle It's really a thing of beauty and it seems the majority of posters are enjoying it and appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 You can see the progression nicely on satellite. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ne/flash-vis.html Yup, exactly what I was seeing, too -- it doesn't seem from that image like its stopped coming south. I dunno, if the NAM is right it will have to stop on dime like...right now. Newburyport up in NE mass appears to have BD'ed. Looking at the last 4 cycles of NAM and BOS has zippo contention with any BD boundary ... I don't think the Euro had one either. Ha. or maybe I missed something. I'll go check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Couple of nice cells starting to pop in SE NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 It is through CON now.Keep it coming sw, 79 here still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 By the way, just want to point something out.... I have been musing over the recent GGEM runs, but this has been very persistent. This is +594dm heights, and a plume of diurnally charged air that exceeds +20C at 850mb -- it cyclically materializes of SNE during the afternoons from Thursday onwards... If it is really 21C at 850mb, with a WSW wind through 576dm thickness and in a cage where heights are half way to the moon, that's going to exceed MOS by a bit. That's an under-the-forecaster radar blip signaling something uniquely torrid. Considering the antecedent pig moisture anomaly into the region, we'd be talking like 94/75 and heat advisory stuff. The GGEM has had this for days worth of runs. I dunno -- maybe it shouldn't be ignored. The Euro looks pretty damn hot last night, though it lacks the same panache...probably upper 80s/low/mid 70s DP, so just difficult as opposed to oppressive. However, it does bring in an episode of Big Heat in the D7-8 range, and I suspect that's an interesting queue considering that the model overcomes a chillier heights signal bias for that particular time range in getting to that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Looks like BDF is triggering some small cells to pop. in NE MA and S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Keep it coming sw, 79 here stillDumping here in Pembroke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Looks like BDF is triggering some small cells to pop. in NE MA and S NH. It does appear this air mass is lifting over that wedge and is towering a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Looks like BDF is triggering some small cells to pop. in NE MA and S NH. Yup and it should help the BDF's southerly momentum as well since we're getting convection on the cold side of the sfc boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Dumping here in Pembroke. Pembroke has always sounded like a good name for a state penitentiary. "You been inside?" "Yeah, I did a bid up in Pembroke -" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 It does appear this air mass is lifting over that wedge and is towering a tad Would that not lend credence to the BDF making a bit more progress S & W? Just thinking aloud. Is this airmass solid enough to cut through the muck that we have here, driving that warm/moist air upward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Yup and it should help the BDF's southerly momentum as well since we're getting convection on the cold side of the sfc boundary. Would that not lend credence to the BDF making a bit more progress S & W? Just thinking aloud. Is this airmass solid enough to cut through the muck that we have here, driving that warm/moist air upward? Think you just answered my question. Kewl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Yup and it should help the BDF's southerly momentum as well since we're getting convection on the cold side of the sfc boundary. Momentous fail on the part of the models ? I think they did have it as far S as NH/MA border, but coming to a halt there. TAN's AFD from this morning suggests it it moves slowly N all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Yeah just had a heavy shower roll through here. Various fungi are loving this weather around my house. Probably more than wxhype. Actually just standing outside, the trees off in the distance caught a good gust and since that the air definitely is cooler than just five minutes before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 up to 74.9, backdoor is secure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Would that not lend credence to the BDF making a bit more progress S & W? Just thinking aloud. Is this airmass solid enough to cut through the muck that we have here, driving that warm/moist air upward? Yeah, these things get complicated... We could see a couple heavier cells and/or training help pool a meso-high in "addition" to the BD air mass, and that sort of like repositions it SW with the out flow, but since the governing support for moving the boundary SW is attenuating in time, it's like you have a mock BD. Meso analysis and certainly sensibly, it becomes impossible to separate the two. We'll have to see how this plays out. I am in Ayer, N of RT 2 in NE Mass, and I'm still safely SW at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Momentous fail on the part of the models ? I think they did have it as far S as NH/MA border, but coming to a halt there. TAN's AFD from this morning suggests it it moves slowly N all day We'll see. 12Z 4km NAM had it getting to about CON around 18Z and then slowly moving northward again by 21Z. It plowed through CON with no problem a little after 16Z... METAR KCON 021614Z AUTO 04012G17KT 10SM BKN012 BKN031 OVC050 21/19 A3014 RMK AO2 METAR KCON 021551Z AUTO 14005KT 10SM FEW010 OVC050 25/23 A3014 RMK AO2 RAE1459B18E27 SLP204 P0000 T02500228 = Since then we have the occasional +SHRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 We'll see. 12Z 4km NAM had it getting to about CON around 18Z and then slowly moving northward again by 21Z. It plowed through CON with no problem a little after 16Z... METAR KCON 021614Z AUTO 04012G17KT 10SM BKN012 BKN031 OVC050 21/19 A3014 RMK AO2 METAR KCON 021551Z AUTO 14005KT 10SM FEW010 OVC050 25/23 A3014 RMK AO2 RAE1459B18E27 SLP204 P0000 T02500228 = Since then we have the occasional +SHRA. It may yet be more of a Central NE deal...though perhaps a "micro bust" of sorts for having it down to Newburyport in NE Mass... LWM to Beverly MA is a good axis for monitoring for these sort of things, and both are still up over 80F/72 DP *(yuck) with SW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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