OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 High res models have a convection bonanza across SE NY, NE PA, and N NJ today. Flight to PHL fail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Flight to PHL fail... Bumpy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 And what about SNE where we actually live,? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Taste it, to quote Scott. They've been tolerable here, only had the ac on a couple nights. The high temps in the lower 80's have made it pretty meh considering how it could be much worse. Not to rehas the a/c-no/ac dialogue, but for this one who does not have a/c, we have used the fan the last couiple of nights--at least until it wakes my wife becuase it's too cool for her. Hot and humid run---76.0/70, but quite the refreshing breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 And what about SNE where we actually live,? If you want oppressive try this... http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kbdl/2010/7/21/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 And what about SNE where we actually live,? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Are we still dealing with a strong llj for later or did models back off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 BOX AFD offers less enthusiasm for anything today, revised GC forecast still has pops at 50%. Wife just got in from the store and says "wow, it feels so much cooler". The power of the breeze ftw. 77.5/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Convection beginning to fire in western Mass and parts of NY. Should be a very active day in western Mass, NW CT and parts of NY/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 80.7/ 75. This is a dream Then we roar storms thru western and central areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Convection beginning to fire in western Mass and parts of NY. Should be a very active day in western Mass, NW CT and parts of NY/NJ. Do we still have a low spin up threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 80.7/ 75. This is a dream Then we roar storms thru western and central areas The last few days have actually been pretty pleasant. It hasn't been hot enough to make the house unbearable. With open windows and fans it's been really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Do we still have a low spin up threat? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Yes. SWEET!!! When I woke up from my hungover ness I saw sun and got excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 BTV set the wettest May on record last month and is only 0.37" away from setting the wettest June on record. Not even close on wettest May/June on record, as its hard to get back-to-back wettest months on record. What a way to run a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 I'm surprised no watch for delmarva, e pa, nj. Seems like the atmosphere is ripe for severe. Classic "see text" outbreak day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 I'm surprised no watch for delmarva, e pa, nj. Seems like the atmosphere is ripe for severe. Classic "see text" outbreak day. Capes are quite high here....2000 on the other meso thing and 3000 on the RAP one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 BTV WRF seems to have a decent handle on things right now... starts convection off in the higher terrain of the Catskills, Southern VT, and SW NH. Then evolves into some very heavy rainers on an axis through central New England and eastern NY.... like BGM-ALB-RUT-LEB-Dendrite axis. Not much at all south and east of the Berkshires and NW MA/S.NH on that model today, or up in northern VT. An eastern NY to central New England day? Some convection already firing in southern VT into western NH, so the axis is probably pretty accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Seems better than most of our slight risk days? ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENING...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY FROMTHE VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT ALONG THE CNTRL/NRN APPALACHIANS EWDACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THISINSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BELT OF MODESTLY STRONG MIDLEVELFLOW /I.E. 500-MB WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 KT/ WHICH WILL BOOST VERTICALSHEAR AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OFMAINLY HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERMGUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 1311. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Seems better than most of our slight risk days? ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT ALONG THE CNTRL/NRN APPALACHIANS EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BELT OF MODESTLY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW /I.E. 500-MB WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 KT/ WHICH WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 1311. What's your feeling for time-frame? At least SNE-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Do you think rising heights and weakening instability will limit svr potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Mid-level lapse rates are very underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 What's your feeling for time-frame? At least SNE-wise SPC WRF has NW Mass up through S NH getting nailed over the next few hours. Down here it will probably take until 22z or so to start getting the better forcing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Mid-level lapse rates are very underwhelming. Welcome to the tropics. No one's going to get impressive mid level lapse rates with PWATs exceeding 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Been socked in with clouds down here all day. Visibilies over parts of LI down to 0.5 miles in fog. Fog adviosory up over the waters. Certainly doesn't feel threatening out there. At least it's warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Do you think rising heights and weakening instability will limit svr potential? Rising heights certainly aren't putting a lid on convection. There's a mess of little PV disturbances in the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic coming north. At the same time we're in the right entrance region of a developing jet streak near Quebec City. Plenty of synoptic scale ascent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Rising heights certainly aren't putting a lid on convection. There's a mess of little PV disturbances in the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic coming north. At the same time we're in the right entrance region of a developing jet streak near Quebec City. Plenty of synoptic scale ascent. That is a pretty impressive ULJ we have to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Seems better than most of our slight risk days? Seems the convection allowing models want to keep things NW again. This is the normalized probability of 40 dBZ echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 81.2F and rising, warmer than previous days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Man looks like some mesos just hammer the same corridor over and over today , spreading ne as pm wheres on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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