powderfreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 That's good. It took long enough! I don't really see a lot of use for the SPC outlooks to be used by OCMs anyway. Plotting a line that shows a threat in half of a county as "slight" does that mean the rest of the viewing area as no threat? We're not that good with forecasting convection to get so specific. For relatively small geographical markets I don't really think it makes sense to show. Instead... timing and impacts are more important. It does seem good though for larger markets or national news. "Higher threat of SVR weather in the area shaded in yellow..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Yeah it seems to me that its one of those situations where you "know" if you are in a flood prone area in the northeast...or at least should know. If you are asking about it, you probably are safe unless we get like a hundred year flood or something. But maybe I think people are more in-tune with this stuff then they actually are. Up here though pretty much everyone seems tuned into the weather... its like when they issue the downslope high wind warnings in the winter synoptic events and the OCMs just say "you know who you are if you get affected by this" ... same with upslope snow events or lake effect snow. I've seen the NWS AFD's where they also say, "the usual areas, you know who you are" lol. But that might just be a local culture thing up here where there's so much weather variability across such short differences, but I would imagine still in SNE you know if you are in a flood prone area. A lot of it is related to where you are. In this area, people are definitely more savvy to coastal flood watches and warnings and know the consequences. But I think severe watches or flood watches aren't the most clearly interpreted unless they are weather savvy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Sun is coming out in much if Western CT now. Ryan with a nice call earlier . Looks like clearing us moving NE fairly quick. Dews are climbing as well. 68.7/68 here. Very rich and thick out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 Sun is coming out in much if Western CT now. Ryan with a nice call earlier . Looks like clearing us moving NE fairly quick. Dews are climbing as well. 68.7/68 here. Very rich and thick out there Yup we'll get into the sun and wash out the front. There's a window for severe storms in western areas around 00z but the timing looks off for anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Yup we'll get into the sun and wash out the front. There's a window for severe storms in western areas around 00z but the timing looks off for anything significant.Man what a pattern! This is one to archive! Just like a great winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Man what a pattern! This is one to archive! Just like a great winter Well if you are a beach or sun lover...not sure they feel the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I always send people to here when they want to know the difference:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=outreach_flw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 FWIW the higher res models are really pinning the heavy rain potential tonight to our north and west. Much closer to the sfc low. If the SPC WRF and RPM are right we may struggle to get a prolonged period of rain/convection in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 FWIW the higher res models are really pinning the heavy rain potential tonight to our north and west. Much closer to the sfc low. If the SPC WRF and RPM are right we may struggle to get a prolonged period of rain/convection in SNE. I'm perfectly content with little rain...it's been enough. Since we don't have a choice in the matter...hopefully that WAR pushes west enough to give us the TIP Bermuda TCU he loves with deep blue skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 68 overcast, light easterly breeze and nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Man DUJ about to get flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 It feels like someone turned on the AC out there...low ceilings and east wind with temps in the low to mid 60s. Far different than the 80/67 stuff at 10am in recent days. Hopefully this hangs around to keep BOS cool all day. Should at least still be cool at lunch hour anyway. The heaviest rain staying west would be good news...we don't need another 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Well if you are a beach or sun lover...not sure they feel the same.Well with the exception of today and maybe tomorrow morning there's been and will be plenty if sunny periods before pm storms. Weekend looks real summery with sun and then strong pm storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Feel the excitement!! @ryanhanrahan: Clouds have broken in Fairfield County... sun racing NE toward Hartford/New Haven! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Well with the exception of today and maybe tomorrow morning there's been and will be plenty if sunny periods before pm storms. Weekend looks real summery with sun and then strong pm storms Hopefully the euro op is wrong for next week...way too much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Hopefully the euro op is wrong for next week...way too much rain.Well that model has had it's issues lately as we know. Hopefully that new upgrade on it fixes the issues days 5-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Hopefully the euro op is wrong for next week...way too much rain. How much rain did it have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 Well that model has had it's issues lately as we know. Hopefully that new upgrade on it fixes the issues days 5-10 Moving forward... please try to keep the hype, wishcasting, and spin in the banter thread. I'll delete it from here and hand out warnings too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 How much rain did it have? Widespread 3-5", but you know someone would have way more in the favored orographic areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Widespread 3-5", but you know someone would have way more in the favored orographic areas. Yeah when you look at the setup it screams training of convection. Was the focus more over western or eastern areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 There's another timeframe for heavy rain that occurs early to midday Saturday depending on the model...we'll have to watch that. It seems to occur almost as the trough begins to retrograde slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 It definitely complicates things that the directive considers flood and flash flood watches as the same criteria for issuance. So basically it's up to the local office to decide which headline to give it. As Powderfreak said though, streamflows are high for this time of year (anything blue is above normal). So probably six in one, half dozen the other scenario. I just happen to think flash flooding is the greater threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 There's another timeframe for heavy rain that occurs early to midday Saturday depending on the model...we'll have to watch that. It seems to occur almost as the trough begins to retrograde slightly. Agreed. Also Sunday night/Monday morning could be another period as the LLJ cranks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 It definitely complicates things that the directive considers flood and flash flood watches as the same criteria for issuance. So basically it's up to the local office to decide which headline to give it. As Powderfreak said though, streamflows are high for this time of year (anything blue is above normal). So probably six in one, half dozen the other scenario. I just happen to think flash flooding is the greater threat. As was evident last night here, About 0.90"/hr here last evening in that training cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Hell of a south-east couplet to the LLJ (H9) on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I always send people to here when they want to know the difference: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=outreach_flw Ahhh very informative.... this makes sense then. It seems the Flood Watch sort of covers all aspects of flooding in one umbrella based on this definition: Flood Watches are issued to inform the public, cooperating agencies, and other interests that the current and/or developing weather pattern is such that there is a potential for rapid flooding (also known as flash flooding), more widespread areal flooding, or river flooding. The occurrence of flooding is neither certain nor imminent. Persons in the watch area are advised to check flood action plans, keep informed, and be ready to take necessary actions if a warning is issued or flooding is observed. And then these are the differences in the warnings... Areal Flooding vs Flash Flooding These two types of flooding may be confusing, so we thought we would take a minute to try and clarify the difference between them. A Flash Flood Warning is issued for flooding that normally occurs within six hours of heavy or intense rainfall. This results in small creeks and streams quickly rising out of their banks. Dangerous flooding in areas near these creeks and streams, as well as low-lying flood prone areas, develops very quickly and is a significant threat to life and/or property. An Areal Flood Warning is normally issued for flooding that develops more gradually, usually from prolonged and persistent moderate to heavy rainfall. This results in a gradual ponding or buildup of water in low-lying, flood prone areas, as well as small creeks and streams. The flooding normally occurs more than six hours after the rainfall begins, and may cover a large area. However, even though this type of flooding develops more slowly than flash flooding, it can still be a threat to life and property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 And then these are the differences in the warnings... Areal Flooding vs Flash Flooding These two types of flooding may be confusing, so we thought we would take a minute to try and clarify the difference between them. A Flash Flood Warning is issued for flooding that normally occurs within six hours of heavy or intense rainfall. This results in small creeks and streams quickly rising out of their banks. Dangerous flooding in areas near these creeks and streams, as well as low-lying flood prone areas, develops very quickly and is a significant threat to life and/or property. An Areal Flood Warning is normally issued for flooding that develops more gradually, usually from prolonged and persistent moderate to heavy rainfall. This results in a gradual ponding or buildup of water in low-lying, flood prone areas, as well as small creeks and streams. The flooding normally occurs more than six hours after the rainfall begins, and may cover a large area. However, even though this type of flooding develops more slowly than flash flooding, it can still be a threat to life and property. I guess that's where I'm coming at it from. I feel more likely to issue a flash flood warning tomorrow than an areal flood warning, therefore I think our watch should also be a flash flood. But again, the point is probably moot when it comes to public reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 It definitely complicates things that the directive considers flood and flash flood watches as the same criteria for issuance. So basically it's up to the local office to decide which headline to give it. As Powderfreak said though, streamflows are high for this time of year (anything blue is above normal). So probably six in one, half dozen the other scenario. I just happen to think flash flooding is the greater threat. Yeah that's what I got out of the official definitions. And even at the Warning level, it still seems open to interpretation... flash flooding is prolonged heavy to intense rainfall that causes streams to quickly leave their banks, while areal flooding is prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall that can also cause streams and creeks to leave their banks, just not "quickly." The Areal Flooding though seems to address gradual build-up of water or ponding of water in areas... although this one "normally" begins more than 6 hours after the rain starts to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Widespread 3-5", but you know someone would have way more in the favored orographic areas. Wow, where do we stand in terms of total Boston rainfall this month? IIRC a couple weeks ago on the news they were saying it was already the 12th rainiest June on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I guess that's where I'm coming at it from. I feel more likely to issue a flash flood warning tomorrow than an areal flood warning, therefore I think our watch should also be a flash flood. But again, the point is probably moot when it comes to public reaction. Yeah definitely moot. Just always interesting to know the little nuances of one over the other... even if in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter. I guess maybe if main stem rivers may come close to flooding, along with flash flooding...or if there is the chance of both types, the Flood Watch is the one to issue based on the definition though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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