Modfan Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Nice line from south central CT in central Ma, some sort of boundry in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Oh and right before the breaks it got gusty. 25-30mph gusts for 30 mins. Bright sun breaking through as I type at lunch on Washington st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Oh and right before the breaks it got gusty. 25-30mph gusts for 30 mins. Bright sun breaking through as I type at lunch on Washington st I am on Washington St. lol. My office is at the corner of School and Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 That's where my advantage is on the garden, If i had it in the ground right now i would have thrown my hands up in the air along with some choice words that only have 4 letters My issue isn't water - the garden is semi-raised bed and with fairly well drained soil. It's the cool temps, and while containers would help some, it's not like the difference they make in soil moisture management. Even the tomatos and peppers amid the heavy black plastic are standing still, though I've no worries about their survival. Another "minute waltz" with +RA here in AUG, about the 8th one this morning, total duration is about 15 minutes. Quickly back to sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Nice line from south central CT in central Ma, some sort of boundry in this area? Seems like a slight temperature contrast from east to west, maybe a slight topographic influence as well? Looks like there may be some slight surface convergence too. Regardless, there's a lightning report in northern MA. Giggity gig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 I see that... I can see the CB wall on the opposite side of a big sky-light from here. Tops tipping NE so it makes sense that it's quasi training. From the looks of it, probably just heavy showers in high pwat. The convective turrets are not very dense and they don't appear to be very high. Just a guess... Anyway, right out ahead of that line there is a window of high sun angle sear. Just entered it here.We saw sun for 18 secondsAnother round of end o the world rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 comfy 76.7 / 75 up at uml , warm front came through about an hr ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 I am on Washington St. lol. My office is at the corner of School and Washington.Just ate at BK by the CVS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Suns out, the seeds of convection are planted. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 My issue isn't water - the garden is semi-raised bed and with fairly well drained soil. It's the cool temps, and while containers would help some, it's not like the difference they make in soil moisture management. Even the tomatos and peppers amid the heavy black plastic are standing still, though I've no worries about their survival. Another "minute waltz" with +RA here in AUG, about the 8th one this morning, total duration is about 15 minutes. Quickly back to sprinkles. Mine is clay based so i would be cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CT/MA/RI/NH...SERN NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 281647Z - 281915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...NEAR AND WITHIN BAND OF INITIALLY NON-SVR CONVECTION OVER DISCUSSION AREA -- MAY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SVR LEVELS THROUGH MID-AFTN. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LOW-END...CONDITIONAL AND LIMITED IN AREA FOR WW. DISCUSSION...16Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE FROM WARM-FRONTAL INTERSECTION NEAR VT/NH BORDER SWD NEAR CT/VT/NH JUNCTION SSWWD ACROSS CT TO NYC AREA. THIS FEATURE REPRESENTS WIND SHIFT BETWEEN RELATIVELY VEERED/SSWLY-SWLY FLOW OVER LOWER HUDSON REGION TO SSWLY/SLY FLOW OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND. BAND OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED INVOF THIS BOUNDARY OVER CT...EXTENDING OFF BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL MA...WHILE ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR SW CORNER OF NH. AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING FAVORABLY ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY AMIDST CLOUD BREAKS AND SFC INSOLATION. HOWEVER...GREATEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE EVIDENT E OF BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN CT...CENTRAL-ERN MA AND RI...AND W OF RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE ATLC MARINE LAYER. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OFFSET ENOUGH BY SFC HEATING TO YIELD 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...AND POCKET OF 100-200 J/KG 0-3 KM CAPE IS EVIDENT JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND OVER ERN CT AND E-CENTRAL MA. ERN FRINGES OF SUBTLE DCVA/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...RELATED SMALL SHORTWAVE THAT IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY PIVOTING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN PA...ALSO MAY SUPPORT NEW ENGLAND TSTM ENVIRONMENT. PERTURBATION ALOFT ALSO MAY MAINTAIN MID-UPPER GRADIENT FLOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MRGL EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 30-35 KT. QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURE ALREADY EVIDENT IN PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND APPEARS TO REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED/DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AS DOES LACK OF MORE ROBUST DEEP SHEAR...BUT SHORT-LIVED/STORM-SCALE ROTATION MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS SERN NY AND WRN CT...MOVING EWD INTO THIS AREA BEHIND INITIAL BAND. THOUGH SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE IN WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR THAN FARTHER E...ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 06/28/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Suns out in wakefield, GO GO GO ! Things may get wild later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Good discussion... pretty much what I was thinking. Worth babysitting the radar but at this point widespread severe looks unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Storms in CT are holding their own but not strengthening much. Certainly below severe limits. No rotation of note either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Storms in CT are holding their own but not strengthening much. Certainly below severe limits. No rotation of note either. Does this boundary continue sliding east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Does this boundary continue sliding east Yeah it's slowly moving east. Interesting, but not surprising, behind it the wind remains channeled in the valley with due southerly winds at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Just finished work...judging by the MCD we aren't looking at anything else to develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Think you will see the line strengthen but not tremendously. Instability is still rising moderately ahead of the line. Probably see it pulse up. Maybe some cells ahead of the line as surface instability increases. Very windy here again. Mostly cloudy with good breaks of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 A few booms of thunder to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Wow...sun out big time here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Awesome towers on the storms to my east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Sun in then out and breezy 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 East toward mht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 So what's the deal? Is more stuff going to fire or not? SPC is poop pooing on this with a "watch unlikely", others are doing the same. 12z WRF is very active later on. Satellite looks pretty solid right now with plenty of sunshine and we're getting into peak heating. Dews are in the low 70's, and shear is still pretty decent, helicity not as high as earlier but certainly more elevated than usual. How is it we can't get severe from a pretty decent setup like this...not talking outbreak but scattered severe, while some of these other setups which look worse than this produce crap...what the hell gives? May as well just take this whole synoptic pattern and stick it up mother nature's ass b/c it's providing no good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 So what's the deal? Is more stuff going to fire or not? SPC is poop pooing on this with a "watch unlikely", others are doing the same. 12z WRF is very active later on. Satellite looks pretty solid right now with plenty of sunshine and we're getting into peak heating. Dews are in the low 70's, and shear is still pretty decent, helicity not as high as earlier but certainly more elevated than usual. How is it we can't get severe from a pretty decent setup like this...not talking outbreak but scattered severe, while some of these other setups which look worse than this produce crap...what the hell gives? May as well just take this whole synoptic pattern and stick it up mother nature's ass b/c it's providing no good at all. Lapse rates are pretty crappy. Isolated severe is more likely. Just one of those set ups where a tornado is probably just as likely as a bowing segment producing a severe wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 So what's the deal? Is more stuff going to fire or not? SPC is poop pooing on this with a "watch unlikely", others are doing the same. 12z WRF is very active later on. Satellite looks pretty solid right now with plenty of sunshine and we're getting into peak heating. Dews are in the low 70's, and shear is still pretty decent, helicity not as high as earlier but certainly more elevated than usual. How is it we can't get severe from a pretty decent setup like this...not talking outbreak but scattered severe, while some of these other setups which look worse than this produce crap...what the hell gives? May as well just take this whole synoptic pattern and stick it up mother nature's ass b/c it's providing no good at all. The timing appears off. There's some broken segments out in western PA that look pretty healthy. That's going to arrive too late. There's good shear in place and even some decent supercell/tornado parameters in place across eastern southern New England, but things probably got going in CT too soon and limited destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Lapse rates are pretty crappy. Isolated severe is more likely. Just one of those set ups where a tornado is probably just as likely as a bowing segment producing a severe wind gust. Lapse rates do suck, but shouldn't these dews compensate somewhat? I'm fine with isolated severe. I'm just wondering why it seems the towel is being thrown in for later on. Unless I'm interpreting the MCD wrong, it sounds as if they aren't expecting much of anything to develop later on across the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 The timing appears off. There's some broken segments out in western PA that look pretty healthy. That's going to arrive too late. There's good shear in place and even some decent supercell/tornado parameters in place across eastern southern New England, but things probably got going in CT too soon and limited destabilization. Even with the sun coming out now? We get solid sun over the next 60-90 minutes and temps could quickly soar into the lower 80's...low 80's/70F dews should yield some pretty solid cape, even with meh lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 hmmm...lapse rates down here are actually fairly decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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