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Cut-Off Woes Next Few Days


CT Rain

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That would've been a painful bust in the winter but this time of year it means my backyard trees are still firmly set along the banks of the West Branch.

Only about 0.75" last night now as the Dryslot works in. Seems like NVT was generally 0.5-1.25 based on the CoCoRAHS observations.

Upper level low is like 50-100+ miles west of where it was progged to be, putting northern NY in the bullseye. The axis of heaviest runs from BGM's CWA almost due north to MSS instead of the models which had that heading more towards ALB/BTV.

Lots of 3-5" 24hr amounts coming out of the BGM-UCA axis. 5.09" is the highest so far in the southern Adirondacks in Herkimer County.

 

 

 Pounded overnight here in central NY.

Took 4X normal amount of time to drive to work due to multiple road closures from flooding.  These are our county roads taking a serious hit not just little local roads.

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1.10" overnight, +SHRN off and on so far this am, 3.45" this week

 

Only had 0.28" in the gauge at 7 AM (plus 0.01" in evening dz yest) and perhaps another 1/4" since then, judging by radar.  The spells of RA/+RA only last a couple minutes, with 15-20 minutes of dz/-RA between.  Thru 7 AM I'm at 1.6" for the week, just under 5" for June, plenty but not a washout.  Of more concern for me is how many hours of sub-65 temps my garden has to endure.  A cold rain this time last year took out all my squash and pumpkins - for the 2nd time; an even colder rain 6/3-4 had wiped out my 1st planting.  Not enough frost-free time to start a 3rd one, nor if the same is occurring again this year.

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1.78" here this week. Looks like you jackpotted on the rain. I bet those golf clubs are feeling awfully lonely.

 

Yeah, The golf game is suffering, 1.35" from that near stationary cell on tues, 0.95" overnight Weds, 1.10" overnight last night, Have had multiple +SHRN this am so far, We keep tallying it up, Glad i do container gardening because it is flourishing

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Only had 0.28" in the gauge at 7 AM (plus 0.01" in evening dz yest) and perhaps another 1/4" since then, judging by radar.  The spells of RA/+RA only last a couple minutes, with 15-20 minutes of dz/-RA between.  Thru 7 AM I'm at 1.6" for the week, just under 5" for June, plenty but not a washout.  Of more concern for me is how many hours of sub-65 temps my garden has to endure.  A cold rain this time last year took out all my squash and pumpkins - for the 2nd time; an even colder rain 6/3-4 had wiped out my 1st planting.  Not enough frost-free time to start a 3rd one, nor if the same is occurring again this year.

 

 

Yeah, The golf game is suffering, 1.35" from that near stationary cell on tues, 0.95" overnight Weds, 1.10" overnight last night, Have had multiple +SHRN this am so far, We keep tallying it up, Glad i do container gardening because it is flourishing

 

That's where my advantage is on the garden, If i had it in the ground right now i would have thrown my hands up in the air along with some choice words that only have 4 letters

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Front is trying to claw its way back north. Pretty strong theta-e advection along the Mass Pike. I'm definitely a little intrigued by the thunderstorm threat this afternoon.

 

 

 

Likewise. Some 0-1km shear and pretty low LCLs as well. If we can destabilize enough I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado somewhere in W SNE? 

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Likewise. Some 0-1km shear and pretty low LCLs as well. If we can destabilize enough I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado somewhere in W SNE? 

 

It looks like we'll lull a bit with shear while instability builds. The RAP at least would suggest sufficient shear for supercellular structure will be working in from the SW by 20-21z. I'm about to dig more into the forecast for southern NH, but I almost feel like a tornado report is equally as likely as any other severe report.

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It looks like we'll lull a bit with shear while instability builds. The RAP at least would suggest sufficient shear for supercellular structure will be working in from the SW by 20-21z. I'm about to dig more into the forecast for southern NH, but I almost feel like a tornado report is equally as likely as any other severe report.

 

Looks like there's a little sweet spot where shear/instability juxtapose from the Monadnocks up through southern Lakes Region? May be another little maximum in the CT River Valley with channelled southerly flow and a veering wind at 850mb? 

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Things gotta change.  We still have some plaguing shallow puke that somehow.... managed to evade the scouring power of those 20 to 30kt southerly wind gust that swept N on the back side of the convective arm of activity in the wee hours of the mornng.  Fitchburg has a DP of just 60...

 

What I find interesting is that shortly after that arm was lifted N of NYC, their winds went S and gusted to 30 kts, and their DPs shot to like 74. That was around 11pm.  The arm was rotating up across SNE by 12:00am.   I thought for sure I'd wake up this morning to partly sunny skies with similar DPs, and a south breeze post that arm sweeping through. 

 
Nope.  DPs actually fell backward in N Mass.  Skies remain murked over as I type.  No wind. Dead calm.  I don't see how this could be.   I checked the overnight wind obs at FIT and they were almost calm the whole time, so it's not like a pulse of counter-balancing ageostrophic puke came rollin' down from the N.  Not sure why the warm air failed to en road up this way.  Interesting.  
 
Good old fashion physical defying SNE bowl effect - ha! 
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I agree.

 

Liking that air mass at BDL and BAF already. Keep advecting that north.

 

Ran a modified sounding for southern NH. Took things up to 76/68 and used the RAP to fill in for significant levels. Got about 500 J/kg, but near 200 m2/s2 SRH. That channeled flow will be key, because the farther south of the low you get the more the winds are veering behind this fine line.

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Liking that air mass at BDL and BAF already. Keep advecting that north.

 

Ran a modified sounding for southern NH. Took things up to 76/68 and used the RAP to fill in for significant levels. Got about 500 J/kg, but near 200 m2/s2 SRH. That channeled flow will be key, because the farther south of the low you get the more the winds are veering behind this fine line.

 

http://ryanhanrahan.com/2012/08/18/new-englands-longest-tornado/

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Still a lot of stations reporting OVC so not out of the woods yet.

 

Yeah it's a pal sun... and it is also dodgy, too.  Be that as it may, I am now just over 70 in Ayer, and that's an 8F bounce over hour and half ago.  So, we are changing things. 

 

Line of early convection may ruin it though.  

 

oy vay.  I really need to charter a trip to Oklahoma one of these springs.  

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Yeah it's a pal sun... and it is also dodgy, too.  Be that as it may, I am now just over 70 in Ayer, and that's an 8F bounce over hour and half ago.  So, we are changing things. 

 

Line of early convection may ruin it though.  

 

oy vay.  I really need to charter a trip to Oklahoma one of these springs.  

Looks like that warm front is working north, having some trouble through Worcester county and western Middlesex.

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Deluge here near rte Poop

 

I see that... I can see the CB wall on the opposite side of a big sky-light from here.  Tops tipping NE so it makes sense that it's quasi training.  From the looks of it, probably just heavy showers in high pwat.  The convective turrets are not very dense and they don't appear to be very high.  Just a guess...  Anyway, right out ahead of that line there is a window of high sun angle sear. Just entered it here.      

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Looks like that warm front is working north, having some trouble through Worcester county and western Middlesex.

 

Yeah, it's changing as I type.  The sky just went hazy blue here with strong sun in the last 10 minutes.  I can see the TCU/CB to the west along the slowly advancing line.  My T/TD are moving up fast.  

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