cny rider Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 That would've been a painful bust in the winter but this time of year it means my backyard trees are still firmly set along the banks of the West Branch. Only about 0.75" last night now as the Dryslot works in. Seems like NVT was generally 0.5-1.25 based on the CoCoRAHS observations. Upper level low is like 50-100+ miles west of where it was progged to be, putting northern NY in the bullseye. The axis of heaviest runs from BGM's CWA almost due north to MSS instead of the models which had that heading more towards ALB/BTV. Lots of 3-5" 24hr amounts coming out of the BGM-UCA axis. 5.09" is the highest so far in the southern Adirondacks in Herkimer County. Pounded overnight here in central NY. Took 4X normal amount of time to drive to work due to multiple road closures from flooding. These are our county roads taking a serious hit not just little local roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 1.10" overnight, +SHRN off and on so far this am, 3.45" this week Only had 0.28" in the gauge at 7 AM (plus 0.01" in evening dz yest) and perhaps another 1/4" since then, judging by radar. The spells of RA/+RA only last a couple minutes, with 15-20 minutes of dz/-RA between. Thru 7 AM I'm at 1.6" for the week, just under 5" for June, plenty but not a washout. Of more concern for me is how many hours of sub-65 temps my garden has to endure. A cold rain this time last year took out all my squash and pumpkins - for the 2nd time; an even colder rain 6/3-4 had wiped out my 1st planting. Not enough frost-free time to start a 3rd one, nor if the same is occurring again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 1.78" here this week. Looks like you jackpotted on the rain. I bet those golf clubs are feeling awfully lonely. Yeah, The golf game is suffering, 1.35" from that near stationary cell on tues, 0.95" overnight Weds, 1.10" overnight last night, Have had multiple +SHRN this am so far, We keep tallying it up, Glad i do container gardening because it is flourishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Only had 0.28" in the gauge at 7 AM (plus 0.01" in evening dz yest) and perhaps another 1/4" since then, judging by radar. The spells of RA/+RA only last a couple minutes, with 15-20 minutes of dz/-RA between. Thru 7 AM I'm at 1.6" for the week, just under 5" for June, plenty but not a washout. Of more concern for me is how many hours of sub-65 temps my garden has to endure. A cold rain this time last year took out all my squash and pumpkins - for the 2nd time; an even colder rain 6/3-4 had wiped out my 1st planting. Not enough frost-free time to start a 3rd one, nor if the same is occurring again this year. Yeah, The golf game is suffering, 1.35" from that near stationary cell on tues, 0.95" overnight Weds, 1.10" overnight last night, Have had multiple +SHRN this am so far, We keep tallying it up, Glad i do container gardening because it is flourishing That's where my advantage is on the garden, If i had it in the ground right now i would have thrown my hands up in the air along with some choice words that only have 4 letters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 been doing nothing but a gray foggy mist here all morning, don't look like its breaking up at all edit: starting to see a few patches of blue in K9B1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Front is trying to claw its way back north. Pretty strong theta-e advection along the Mass Pike. I'm definitely a little intrigued by the thunderstorm threat this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Front is trying to claw its way back north. Pretty strong theta-e advection along the Mass Pike. I'm definitely a little intrigued by the thunderstorm threat this afternoon. Likewise. Some 0-1km shear and pretty low LCLs as well. If we can destabilize enough I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado somewhere in W SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Likewise. Some 0-1km shear and pretty low LCLs as well. If we can destabilize enough I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado somewhere in W SNE? It looks like we'll lull a bit with shear while instability builds. The RAP at least would suggest sufficient shear for supercellular structure will be working in from the SW by 20-21z. I'm about to dig more into the forecast for southern NH, but I almost feel like a tornado report is equally as likely as any other severe report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 It looks like we'll lull a bit with shear while instability builds. The RAP at least would suggest sufficient shear for supercellular structure will be working in from the SW by 20-21z. I'm about to dig more into the forecast for southern NH, but I almost feel like a tornado report is equally as likely as any other severe report. Looks like there's a little sweet spot where shear/instability juxtapose from the Monadnocks up through southern Lakes Region? May be another little maximum in the CT River Valley with channelled southerly flow and a veering wind at 850mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Things gotta change. We still have some plaguing shallow puke that somehow.... managed to evade the scouring power of those 20 to 30kt southerly wind gust that swept N on the back side of the convective arm of activity in the wee hours of the mornng. Fitchburg has a DP of just 60... What I find interesting is that shortly after that arm was lifted N of NYC, their winds went S and gusted to 30 kts, and their DPs shot to like 74. That was around 11pm. The arm was rotating up across SNE by 12:00am. I thought for sure I'd wake up this morning to partly sunny skies with similar DPs, and a south breeze post that arm sweeping through. Nope. DPs actually fell backward in N Mass. Skies remain murked over as I type. No wind. Dead calm. I don't see how this could be. I checked the overnight wind obs at FIT and they were almost calm the whole time, so it's not like a pulse of counter-balancing ageostrophic puke came rollin' down from the N. Not sure why the warm air failed to en road up this way. Interesting. Good old fashion physical defying SNE bowl effect - ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Looks like there's a little sweet spot where shear/instability juxtapose from the Monadnocks up through southern Lakes Region? May be another little maximum in the CT River Valley with channelled southerly flow and a veering wind at 850mb? I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Gee, where's the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Up to 11.05 for the month. Definitely garden and plant issues showing up. Sun in and out but cool with a decent breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Up to 11.05 for the month. Definitely garden and plant issues showing up. Sun in and out but cool with a decent breeze. Look on the bright side, great tubing conditions the next few weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 I agree. Liking that air mass at BDL and BAF already. Keep advecting that north. Ran a modified sounding for southern NH. Took things up to 76/68 and used the RAP to fill in for significant levels. Got about 500 J/kg, but near 200 m2/s2 SRH. That channeled flow will be key, because the farther south of the low you get the more the winds are veering behind this fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Liking that air mass at BDL and BAF already. Keep advecting that north. Ran a modified sounding for southern NH. Took things up to 76/68 and used the RAP to fill in for significant levels. Got about 500 J/kg, but near 200 m2/s2 SRH. That channeled flow will be key, because the farther south of the low you get the more the winds are veering behind this fine line. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2012/08/18/new-englands-longest-tornado/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FitzWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Warm air just arrived at Shrewsbury. Pt sunny wind out of the south. Very warm and humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Sun out now along Rt 2 up here, so the mix out can begin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Look on the bright side, great tubing conditions the next few weeks!Roger that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 http://ryanhanrahan.com/2012/08/18/new-englands-longest-tornado/ There are some similarities, that's definitely not lost on me. A little deeper into the murk this morning at GYX than in 2008, but the conditions aloft aren't completely off (we did have rain right at launch so it's a little tainted). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Sun out now along Rt 2 up here, so the mix out can begin... Still a lot of stations reporting OVC so not out of the woods yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Sun out now along Rt 2 up here, so the mix out can begin...Deluge here near rte Poop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 ORH and ORE both jumped to 70 dews in the last three hours (up from 61 and 62). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 ORH and ORE both jumped to 70 dews in the last three hours (up from 61 and 62). Let's bring those on up to SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Still a lot of stations reporting OVC so not out of the woods yet. Yeah it's a pal sun... and it is also dodgy, too. Be that as it may, I am now just over 70 in Ayer, and that's an 8F bounce over hour and half ago. So, we are changing things. Line of early convection may ruin it though. oy vay. I really need to charter a trip to Oklahoma one of these springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom MA wx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Framingham just jumped to 77 with a dew of 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Yeah it's a pal sun... and it is also dodgy, too. Be that as it may, I am now just over 70 in Ayer, and that's an 8F bounce over hour and half ago. So, we are changing things. Line of early convection may ruin it though. oy vay. I really need to charter a trip to Oklahoma one of these springs. Looks like that warm front is working north, having some trouble through Worcester county and western Middlesex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Deluge here near rte Poop I see that... I can see the CB wall on the opposite side of a big sky-light from here. Tops tipping NE so it makes sense that it's quasi training. From the looks of it, probably just heavy showers in high pwat. The convective turrets are not very dense and they don't appear to be very high. Just a guess... Anyway, right out ahead of that line there is a window of high sun angle sear. Just entered it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Looks like that warm front is working north, having some trouble through Worcester county and western Middlesex. Yeah, it's changing as I type. The sky just went hazy blue here with strong sun in the last 10 minutes. I can see the TCU/CB to the west along the slowly advancing line. My T/TD are moving up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Started at work site in west rox with fog and mist. Low vis. Started to clear, humidity increased. Had breaks and more sun coming through most recently. Feels as if temp is bumping up. Like the position of the line. Going to get nice breaks ahead of it due to slow storm motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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