N. OF PIKE Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Doesnt seem like any hope hfd to orh to psm se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 5:07 PM, CT Rain said: SPC WRF has NW Mass up through S NH getting nailed over the next few hours. Down here it will probably take until 22z or so to start getting the better forcing in. Do you think that's right? I don't see that to be likely (though there is the burst of activity down toward Westhampton/Huntington and the other one in SW NH (chesterfield????). BOX had also backed off on their concern for the NW areas. It's become mostly cloudy at this point here. 77.2/71 off a high temp of 78.6 at 10:30a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 5:12 PM, OceanStWx said: 6-30-2013 1-10-57 PM.png Seems the convection allowing models want to keep things NW again. This is the normalized probability of 40 dBZ echoes. Not too surprised by that with the stationary front hung up back that way. I think at least during the day most of the legit action stays west of SNE though W Mass/NW CT probably get in on it a bit. By evening once the LLJ begins to increase a bit and we get some assist from the UL disturbance in the Carolinas things should start sliding east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 5:12 PM, OceanStWx said: 6-30-2013 1-10-57 PM.png Seems the convection allowing models want to keep things NW again. This is the normalized probability of 40 dBZ echoes. Oh goodie--I'm in the red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 5:17 PM, moneypitmike said: Do you think that's right? I don't see that to be likely (though there is the burst of activity down toward Westhampton/Huntington and the other one in SW NH (chesterfield????). BOX had also backed off on their concern for the NW areas. It's become mostly cloudy at this point here. 77.2/71 off a high temp of 78.6 at 10:30a.m. I think you'll get a couple rounds of storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 5:18 PM, CT Rain said: Not too surprised by that with the stationary front hung up back that way. I think at least during the day most of the legit action stays west of SNE though W Mass/NW CT probably get in on it a bit. By evening once the LLJ begins to increase a bit and we get some assist from the UL disturbance in the Carolinas things should start sliding east a bit. I think that stationary/regenerating convection S of New England is that QPF that the Euro has consistently tried to hammer everyone with tomorrow. Wherever that front hangs up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 5:20 PM, CT Rain said: I think you'll get a couple rounds of storms today. That'll be cool. I'll [post reports of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 If the movement of the little blobs in western Hampshire county and SW corner of NH are any indication, folks getting any storms might be in for a lot of rain--they haven't moved at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 cell near POU is quite strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 rain beginning here in GC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Beaverdam Dam has failed... southern Scohaire county in NY in Albany's WFO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 You ca see the axis setting up nicely on radar now....Catskills, Berks, southern NH. Looks like NW of a HVN-BAF-CON axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 And then it shifts east this eve so everyone gets hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 6:02 PM, Wx Hype said: And then it shifts east this eve so everyone gets hit I thought it looked to be pretty stationary on the models, but I guess all bets are off. At least like the axis of heaviest rain probs looked to stay in the same general area of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Let all this stuff stay west right now. Getting some decent sun here at tines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Wow, some enormous 1 hour rain totals inside of 3 pixels in some cases... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 6:06 PM, powderfreak said: I thought it looked to be pretty stationary on the models, but I guess all bets are off. At least like the axis of heaviest rain probs looked to stay in the same general area of New England.Ryan had said it would roll east as the forcing shifts east and we rip the LLJ tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 12z Euro not overly impressive. Keeps the best stuff north and west tomorrow and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Toss. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Nasty cell east of POU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 6:25 PM, Wx Hype said: Ryan had said it would roll east as the forcing shifts east and we rip the LLJ tonight We'll get some stuff east but the big stuff will stay in western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 6:58 PM, weatherwiz said: Nasty cell east of POU Yeah probably severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 6:58 PM, weatherwiz said: Nasty cell east of POU Lots of action over there... storms seem to be sitting over the same general areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 6:58 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah probably severe. Could be a good sign for us later on perhaps...especially if we can keep cape values up around 2000 J when the LLJ arrives and better forcing for us. There have been some nice looking storms in eastern NY even with some rotation within them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 As height slowly rise from the east along with this ridge strengthening/retrograding, gradually reducing chances for convection should take place. The trough retrogrades west and fills, taking the convergence zones and vestigial mid level laps rates along with it. Not surprising to see models start pushing the better action NW... The 12z Euro looks like it would carry an impressive MCS threat for next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 7:03 PM, weatherwiz said: Could be a good sign for us later on perhaps...especially if we can keep cape values up around 2000 J when the LLJ arrives and better forcing for us. There have been some nice looking storms in eastern NY even with some rotation within them. Another isolated severe threat tomorrow. Marginal CAPE but plenty of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Tip says no convection . I'm confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 7:18 PM, Wx Hype said: Tip says no convection . I'm confused The best threat is certainly west and north of you. Again... weather that happens outside of Tolland still happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 On 6/30/2013 at 7:20 PM, CT Rain said: The best threat is certainly west and north of you. Again... weather that happens outside of Tolland still happens. Nice storms in NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 ML LAPSE RATES UP TO 6!!!!!!!!!!! Small pocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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