Cut-Off Woes Next Few Days

[CT Rain]

Pretty classic warm-season cut-off will lead to some unsettled weather over the next few days. Obviously flooding will be a concern but there is a severe weather threat Friday and Saturday.

 

I doubt severe weather today due to the late arrival of the LLJ. 

[CT Rain]

Backdoor front is pretty interesting to see. Obviously weak/shallow back this way but KDXR has NE winds. The front also is bisecting Long Island with NE winds at KMTP and KBID with SSW winds at KISP/KFRG. 

 

Turbulent mixing should wash out the front pretty quickly from metro NYC up north and east. Will probably stall somewhere over CT and that could really be a focus for heavy rain later today. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Is there any threat for meso or severe along the front?

[CoastalWx]

Is there any threat for meso or severe along the front?

 

Maybe closer to the low center in NY state.

[CT Rain]

Is there any threat for meso or severe along the front?

 

Doubtful this way. LLJ doesn't arrive until after 00z. Timing is off for today. Where timing is more favorable across parts of NJ and E PA it's possible. 

[N. OF PIKE]

What currently look to be axis for potential svr wx fri and sat

[powderfreak]

Already the wettest May/June combination on record (130-year period) in the BTV area and it won't even be close after this event... we need Blizz to hype a damaging drought this fall and winter.  Maybe then we can turn that hype into the snowiest winter on record, too.

 

Here's the top 5...

Rank Value Ending Date

1. 16.35 6/26/2013
2. 13.87 6/30/2006
3. 13.07 6/30/1973
4. 12.27 6/30/1998
5. 12.19 6/30/2011

 

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 509 AM EDT THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH
SOME ISOLATED AMOUTS OF 4 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ADIRONDAKCS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
3 INCHES POSSIBLE. IF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN
MATERIALISES...FLOODING IS LIKELY. THE GROUND IS SO SATURATED IT
SIMPLY CANNOT HANDLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...AND ANY RAIN WILL RUN
OFF IMMEDIATELY. ANY PLACE THAT RECEIVES AN INCH OF RAIN IN HALF
AN HOUR...OR 1.5 INCH IN AN HOUR WILL LIKELY SEE FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...MANY AREAS SINCE LATE MAY HAVE EXPERIENCED FLOODING OF
SOME FORM OR ANOTHER...AND THOSE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO RENEWED FLOODING.

 

 

Forecast rainfall...

 

[CoastalWx]

Bye bye PF. It was nice knowing you.

[OceanStWx]

Already the wettest May/June combination on record (130-year period) in the BTV area and it won't even be close after this event... we need Blizz to hype a damaging drought this fall and winter.  Maybe then we can turn that hype into the snowiest winter on record, too.

 

Here's the top 5...

Rank Value Ending Date

1. 16.35 6/26/2013

2. 13.87 6/30/2006

3. 13.07 6/30/1973

4. 12.27 6/30/1998

5. 12.19 6/30/2011

 

.HYDROLOGY...

AS OF 509 AM EDT THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF

RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH

SOME ISOLATED AMOUTS OF 4 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN

THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ADIRONDAKCS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION

WILL 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF

3 INCHES POSSIBLE. IF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN

MATERIALISES...FLOODING IS LIKELY. THE GROUND IS SO SATURATED IT

SIMPLY CANNOT HANDLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...AND ANY RAIN WILL RUN

OFF IMMEDIATELY. ANY PLACE THAT RECEIVES AN INCH OF RAIN IN HALF

AN HOUR...OR 1.5 INCH IN AN HOUR WILL LIKELY SEE FLOODING. IN

ADDITION...MANY AREAS SINCE LATE MAY HAVE EXPERIENCED FLOODING OF

SOME FORM OR ANOTHER...AND THOSE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN

PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO RENEWED FLOODING.

 

 

Forecast rainfall...

 

forecastprecip.png

 

This discussion is exactly how I feel about the upcoming event. Yet I'm still confused as to why only BOX wanted to go with flash flood watches. To me it seems rivers are the lowest flood threat at this time, and runoff causing flash flooding is much higher. But I guess that's just me. We seem to be averse to flash flood watches in New England.

[powderfreak]

Bye bye PF. It was nice knowing you.

 

I've got the inner tube ready.  Will be able to whitewater raft down the river out back as it drains all of Mansfield's eastern basin past my house.  When I bought this they said you'd never need flood insurance... now I'm curious.

 

But congrat's to all of us from the HPC...

 

[CT Rain]

This discussion is exactly how I feel about the upcoming event. Yet I'm still confused as to why only BOX wanted to go with flash flood watches. To me it seems rivers are the lowest flood threat at this time, and runoff causing flash flooding is much higher. But I guess that's just me. We seem to be averse to flash flood watches in New England.

 

It drives me crazy when OKX and BOX go flash flood watches and ALY leaves me with one county in a "flood watch". I just change the color and make all of them flash flood watches. Makes no sense. 

[powderfreak]

This discussion is exactly how I feel about the upcoming event. Yet I'm still confused as to why only BOX wanted to go with flash flood watches. To me it seems rivers are the lowest flood threat at this time, and runoff causing flash flooding is much higher. But I guess that's just me. We seem to be averse to flash flood watches in New England.

 

I can tell you that rivers around here seem to be abnormally very, very high for this time of year.  The one behind my house is usually ankle deep and relatively placid this time of year... for like 5 days straight its been a torrent that I won't let my dog go anywhere near even though that's her first instinct is to go swimming.

 

All the little creeks and such are pretty much full (like 10 foot wide beds)...

 

But I'm not sure what classifies as flash flooding vs other flooding... if the West Branch out back comes out of its banks, is that a flash flood or a river flood?  The Winooski River is much larger, if that comes out is that river flooding?   I also think the aerial flood watch would cover all the standing water around these parts... there are fields that look like ponds and such. 

 

I've always sort of though that a Flood Watch sort of covered flash flooding if that occurred too...but if the rain is this widespread I think the flooding will be a lot more widespread than a Flash Flood type deal in one localized mountain drainage.

[OceanStWx]

It drives me crazy when OKX and BOX go flash flood watches and ALY leaves me with one county in a "flood watch". I just change the color and make all of them flash flood watches. Makes no sense. 

 

Well poor collaboration for one, we should be trying to make things easier for the OCMs. And two I think it's just not the most accurate product to describe the situation (regular flood watch that is).

[powderfreak]

It does seem like BTV sort of explains it in the Watch... some Flash Flooding is also possible in thunderstorms.  But seems the biggest concern is just the high water levels of all the area rivers.

 

I liked the "localized landslides" comment, haha.

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAYEVENING...THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR* ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...EXCEPT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...  NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY.* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING* FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS MODERATE TO HEAVY  RAINFALL MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN WILL  DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH  2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN  NEW YORK AS WELL AS CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS  OF 4 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SEE 1.5 TO  2.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES  POSSIBLE. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN  THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST MONTH HAS SATURATED  SOILS...AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  THE WET CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE  RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FLOOD THREAT.* SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SEE SHARP RISES AT THE ONSET OF  THE HEAVY RAIN. SOME MAIN STEM RIVER WILL ALSO EXCEED OR  APPROACH BANK FULL. AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING  OVER THE PRECEDING WEEKS WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO  RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO HAVE THE  POTENTIAL TO WASH OUT ROADS AND CULVERTS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL  WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED LANDSLIDES  AND DO FURTHER DAMAGE TO ROADWAYS ALREADY DAMAGED OR WEAKENED BY  FLASH FLOODING EARLIER THIS WEEK.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY AWAY FROMFLOOD WATERS.REMEMBER, TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

[CT Rain]

Well poor collaboration for one, we should be trying to make things easier for the OCMs. And two I think it's just not the most accurate product to describe the situation (regular flood watch that is).

 

Is one easier to verify than the other? 

 

Some of the hydro products get very confusing sometimes and can vary between offices. 

[powderfreak]

Well poor collaboration for one, we should be trying to make things easier for the OCMs. And two I think it's just not the most accurate product to describe the situation (regular flood watch that is).

 

Care to clarify the differences between the two watches?  To me flash flooding seems more like a localized threat.  Or can you have like 6 county clusters under Flash Flood Warnings type deal? 

 

Is it the response time of the flooding?  Like if a river immediately goes into Flood is that a flash flood, rather than a situation where a river goes into flood a day later as rainfall drains from the mountains?  To me, BTV seems to think they'll have a decent amount of river gages go into flood stage.

[OceanStWx]

I can tell you that rivers around here seem to be abnormally very, very high for this time of year.  The one behind my house is usually ankle deep and relatively placid this time of year... for like 5 days straight its been a torrent that I won't let my dog go anywhere near even though that's her first instinct is to go swimming.

 

All the little creeks and such are pretty much full (like 10 foot wide beds)...

 

But I'm not sure what classifies as flash flooding vs other flooding... if the West Branch out back comes out of its banks, is that a flash flood or a river flood?  The Winooski River is much larger, if that comes out is that river flooding?   I also think the aerial flood watch would cover all the standing water around these parts... there are fields that look like ponds and such. 

 

I've always sort of though that a Flood Watch sort of covered flash flooding if that occurred too...but if the rain is this widespread I think the flooding will be a lot more widespread than a Flash Flood type deal in one localized mountain drainage.

 

I mean really river flooding is for rivers where we have forecast points. Smaller stuff that rapidly comes out of its banks is pretty close to flash flooding, especially when it affects houses or roads. I mean I would argue even rivers like the Saco at Conway and Swift at Roxbury are more flashy rivers than anything else.

 

I mean the rivers may be abnormally high for this time of year, but most are still several feet from flood stage (6+ feet). I guess my thought is that we should tailor the product to the most impactful weather event. In this case, I think it will be flash flooding. Of course I could be entirely off base.

[CoastalWx]

It seems like flood watches are a good way to broad brush the threat, but if a heavy cell stalls or trains over an area, flash flood warnings probably would have a good handle. I mean do people really treat a flood watch vs flash flood watch any different? I doubt it.

[CT Rain]

It seems like flood watches are a good way to broad brush the threat, but if a heavy cell stalls or trains over an area, flash flood warnings probably would have a good handle. I mean do people really treat a flood watch vs flash flood watch any different? I doubt it.

 

Yeah I think this is true. Also depends on how NWS is communicating behind the scenes to media/emergency managers to prep beyond just the watch product. 

[Modfan]

I've got the inner tube ready.  Will be able to whitewater raft down the river out back as it drains all of Mansfield's eastern basin past my house.  When I bought this they said you'd never need flood insurance... now I'm curious.

 

But congrat's to all of us from the HPC...

 

p168i.gif

That's 3+ inches over 7 days, so maybe not so bad, better than all at once!

[Tropopause_Fold]

It seems like flood watches are a good way to broad brush the threat, but if a heavy cell stalls or trains over an area, flash flood warnings probably would have a good handle. I mean do people really treat a flood watch vs flash flood watch any different? I doubt it.

i wonder if people even do anything when a flood watch is issued?

 

i was thinking about this a bit earlier in the week when it seemed apparent that there would be flood issues late in the week. if it's not widespread river flooding, this seems like a real challenging one to convey and / or prepare for too.

[OceanStWx]

Is one easier to verify than the other? 

 

Some of the hydro products get very confusing sometimes and can vary between offices. 

 

 

Care to clarify the differences between the two watches?  To me flash flooding seems more like a localized threat.  Or can you have like 6 county clusters under Flash Flood Warnings type deal? 

 

Is it the response time of the flooding?  Like if a river immediately goes into Flood is that a flash flood, rather than a situation where a river goes into flood a day later as rainfall drains from the mountains?  To me, BTV seems to think they'll have a decent amount of river gages go into flood stage.

 

These both reminded me, if a river with a gage is rapidly rising through flood stage you can issue a flash flood warning on them as well. The best example I can think of is an ice jam. And as far as flash floods go, the warning can be fairly large in an areal sense. And much of if not all of the CWA could be flash flood warned.

 

As for verification, they are both fairly easy to verify.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I think this is true. Also depends on how NWS is communicating behind the scenes to media/emergency managers to prep beyond just the watch product. 

 

I understand explaining the differences to the media and EM people, but just not sure how the general public treats these watches.

[CT Rain]

I understand explaining the differences to the media and EM people, but just not sure how the general public treats these watches.

 

Though I'm not sure those conversations have taken place locally yet. At least I haven't seen any. 

[CoastalWx]

i wonder if people even do anything when a flood watch is issued?

 

i was thinking about this a bit earlier in the week when it seemed apparent that there would be flood issues late in the week. if it's not widespread river flooding, this seems like a real challenging one to convey and / or prepare for too.

 

I know people who are just like, "are we all going to get flooding?...I see that the whole area is under a flood watch..." Meanwhile, the idea behind that is to prepare if you are prone to river or poor drainage/low lying flooding. Not anyone's fault...but just shows you how the public can view watches.

[powderfreak]

I mean really river flooding is for rivers where we have forecast points. Smaller stuff that rapidly comes out of its banks is pretty close to flash flooding, especially when it affects houses or roads. I mean I would argue even rivers like the Saco at Conway and Swift at Roxbury are more flashy rivers than anything else.

 

I mean the rivers may be abnormally high for this time of year, but most are still several feet from flood stage (6+ feet). I guess my thought is that we should tailor the product to the most impactful weather event. In this case, I think it will be flash flooding. Of course I could be entirely off base.

 

I agree with you there then, if its for places without USGS gages or forecast points.  I get what your saying about flashy type rivers as the river out back is something that'll come up 2 feet in like a half hour if its pouring on Mansfield... then it'll flow itself out pretty quickly after the rain stops, too.  I lived along the Winooski River (one of the main stem in this area) and that thing seemed to rise like 24 hours after a heavy rain event. 

 

Anyway, I just have always looked at it as a more localized threat "flash flood watches" vs. a possibly much larger impact over a big geographical area.

 

This stuff they are talking about this afternoon definitely seems like flash flooding threat though...localized slow moving t-storms.

 

[CoastalWx]

Though I'm not sure those conversations have taken place locally yet. At least I haven't seen any. 

 

I do notice a better communication of the SPC outlooks. I see OCM's now saying "this area in yellow highlights a greater possibility of severe wx," instead of "The SPC has put us in a slight risk for severe wx.."

[CT Rain]

I do notice a better communication of the SPC outlooks. I see OCM's now saying "this area in yellow highlights a greater possibility of severe wx," instead of "The SPC has put us in a slight risk for severe wx.."

 

That's good. It took long enough! 

 

I don't really see a lot of use for the SPC outlooks to be used by OCMs anyway. Plotting a line that shows a threat in half of a county as "slight" does that mean the rest of the viewing area as no threat? We're not that good with forecasting convection to get so specific. For relatively small geographical markets I don't really think it makes sense to show. Instead... timing and impacts are more important. 

[powderfreak]

I know people who are just like, "are we all going to get flooding?...I see that the whole area is under a flood watch..." Meanwhile, the idea behind that is to prepare if you are prone to river or poor drainage/low lying flooding. Not anyone's fault...but just shows you how the public can view watches.

 

Yeah it seems to me that its one of those situations where you "know" if you are in a flood prone area in the northeast...or at least should know. 

 

If you are asking about it, you probably are safe unless we get like a hundred year flood or something. 

 

But maybe I think people are more in-tune with this stuff then they actually are.  Up here though pretty much everyone seems tuned into the weather... its like when they issue the downslope high wind warnings in the winter synoptic events and the OCMs just say "you know who you are if you get affected by this" ... same with upslope snow events or lake effect snow.  I've seen the NWS AFD's where they also say, "the usual areas, you know who you are" lol. 

 

But that might just be a local culture thing up here where there's so much weather variability across such short differences, but I would imagine still in SNE you know if you are in a flood prone area.

[dryslot]

I've got the inner tube ready.  Will be able to whitewater raft down the river out back as it drains all of Mansfield's eastern basin past my house.  When I bought this they said you'd never need flood insurance... now I'm curious.

 

But congrat's to all of us from the HPC...

 

p168i.gif

 

Thats a depressing map, My golf clubs are crying for there momma