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July 2013 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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A few records in jeopardy for ORD this weekend...

 

27th low max: 69 (1981)

27th low min: 52 (1985)

28th low max: 66 (1981)

28th low min: 51 (1984)

29th low min: 50 (1984)

 

Low max for tomorrow and low min for Sun have the best chances at being broken.

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DTX's aviation forecast for Saturday:

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

000
FXUS63 KDTX 270351
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
THE MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER SW LOWER MI TO ADVANCE INTO SE MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE BASES SHOULD LIFT A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SRN MI VERY
SLOWLY TODAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. SO
THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS THROUGH SE MI UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT.

FOR DTW...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT PASS THROUGH METRO UNTIL 20 OR
21Z. BUILDING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON.


//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TODAY.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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I'm thinking something like 48 or 49 for Sunday morning. What about you? I guess it could get a bit colder than that but I'm kinda feeling burned from last time.

Yeah...I like your thinking. But, things have to go "right" for upper 40's. You know?

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Yeah...I like your thinking. But, things have to go "right" for upper 40's. You know?

Well, if we can't do it with this airmass then I'm not sure what it would take. 850 mb temps are progged to be around 6C in our area. They were more like 9-10C last time.

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For here ( KBTL ) we have a shot at a few records both tomorrow and Sunday. Records are 70 for Saturday and 72 for Sunday. The July record is 62 for the coldest high temp. Coldest temp ever in July is 42 which happened twice. Doubt we get close though to the low temps thanks to the lake stuff and thus clouds and showers. Record lows are, 48 for the 28th, 46 for both the 29th and 30th, and 45 for the 31st.

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The record low is going down at IND tonight (54 in 2004), but the record at FWA is hopefully safe (44 in 1900). :shiver:

 

IND radiates poorly. 55º is my call and thus no soup.

 

LAF gets to 50º...upper 40's prove elusive.

 

Take it to the bank clock.  

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MKE observed a temperature of 64 at the 06z observation so the best we can do is tie the record low max. Thee best chance to break a record low would be tonight. Hopefully clouds dont mess it up;

 

They probably will with the scattered shower potential.  As for today's max temp, the daytime temp will probably be around 65F anyway so the early max won't be much of an issue.

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They probably will with the scattered shower potential.  As for today's max temp, the daytime temp will probably be around 65F anyway so the early max won't be much of an issue.

 

Only things mke weather won't let you down with are cooler by the lake in spring/early summer and breaking record warm temps. Rest of the weather near or at the airport will underachieve and disappoint any way possible 9.9 times outta 10.

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They probably will with the scattered shower potential.  As for today's max temp, the daytime temp will probably be around 65F anyway so the early max won't be much of an issue.

We will probably tie it, temps are not budging at all today.

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Only things mke weather won't let you down with are cooler by the lake in spring/early summer and breaking record warm temps. Rest of the weather near or at the airport will underachieve and disappoint any way possible 9.9 times outta 10.

 

Yep, rain totals at MKE have even been down this year compared to the surrounding metro area.  Seems the airport rarely gets the most intense storms/rain, yet in the heat waves the temps will often be hotter than Chicago, the surrounding sites not so much.

 

Mid 50s at the noon hour in many local sites, just crazy for about a week after the statistical warmest days of the year.

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A few records in jeopardy for ORD this weekend...

27th low max: 69 (1981)

27th low min: 52 (1985)

28th low max: 66 (1981)

28th low min: 51 (1984)

29th low min: 50 (1984)

Low max for tomorrow and low min for Sun have the best chances at being broken.

Today's low max might go down by quite a bit. It's only 63 with a lot of clouds.

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