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July 2013 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Wow DLL, that's some ferocious looking hail. I don't mind small hail, but I don't want to see any of that.

 

IWX mentions 2009 in their afternoon disco, (makes Chicagowx smile). Also mentioned lake effect rain showers, with some heavy rain possible. Oh, and the possibility of some waterspouts. Could a little interesting weather around the lake this weekend.

 

MUCH COOLER AIR COMES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST 8C WITH SOME MODELS DOWN TO
5C. A QUICK LOOK AT ANALOGS INCLUDING CIPS SHOWS A FEW EVENTS WITH
SIMILAR MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUT FEW IF ANY SHOWING 850MB TEMPS THIS
COOL FOR LATE JULY. PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE COOL SUMMER OF 2009.
DELTA T VALUES WOULD EASILY BE IN THE MID TEENS GIVEN RELATIVELY
WARM LAKE IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. MODELS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON
THIS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE AND EVEN MORE COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOWING SOME GOOD QPF FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH
ANOMALOUS LOW STILL OVER THE LAKES AND STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
INTRODUCE THE RARE JULY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER CHANCE TO FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IF RAIN SHOWERS CAN
DEVELOP THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN A FEW WARM
SEASON LAKE EFFECT RAIN EVENTS IN THE PAST. WATERSPOUTS WOULD ALSO
BE A POSSIBILITY WITH WARM LAKE AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS
BUT LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A MENTION HERE AT THIS
TIME.

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MET guidance is showing a high of 62 for both RAC and MKE on Saturday and fwiw, 4km NAM has us in the 40's Saturday morning.

 

MKE record low max and min's for 7/27-7/29

 

07/27/1981    64

07/28/1981    64

07/29/1882    67

 

07/27/1962    52 

07/28/1967    53

07/29/1981    49

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I'm not very confident in this happening but there's at least a mentionable chance that LAF doesn't hit 70 on Saturday. Sub 70 highs in July are very uncommon...in fact, there have only been 6 occurrences at the airport from 1944-2013 (some missing data so actual total may be higher). Interestingly, 3 of them have come since 2009.

68: 7/1/2009, 7/21/1996, 7/28/1971

69: 7/2/2013, 7/4/2009, 7/7/1992

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I'm not very confident in this happening but there's at least a mentionable chance that LAF doesn't hit 70 on Saturday. Sub 70 highs in July are very uncommon...in fact, there have only been 6 occurrences at the airport from 1944-2013 (some missing data so actual total may be higher). Interestingly, 3 of them have come since 2009.

68: 7/1/2009, 7/21/1996, 7/28/1971

69: 7/2/2013, 7/4/2009, 7/7/1992

 

Not happening for them, but I posted all the July sub 70º days for Indianapolis in the summer thread.

 

But, the record low maximum temp for tomorrow for Indy is 73º (set in 2004). Might have a chance...maybe. 

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Like back in June, just when it begins to get dry we get good rain.  Last night we got a nice 1.53" and the 1-2" totals were widespread across the area.  Combined with the cool weather that pretty much removes any chance the 'abnormally dry' shading on the drought map will creep into the northeast third of Iowa anytime soon.

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I feel for people along the lakes and on the water this weekend. Its going to be nasty. Hoodies in July is absured like T shirts in January. The real enjoyment will be in the state forest areas as it looks to be a good hiking weekend. Low temps and a few showers to keep it misty.

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0C contour showing up at 850mb on the mesoanalysis page.

 

98al1u.gif

 

 

Looks to be a pretty good chance MKE records a low in the 40's this weekend, which has happened 34 other times in July

 

07/01/1965    40
07/10/1963    44
07/04/1963    45
07/05/1972    45
07/09/1961    45
07/16/1945    45
07/04/1960    46
07/05/1967    46
07/06/1965    46
07/15/1960    46
07/02/2001    47
07/06/1983    47
07/09/1895    47
07/11/1945    47
07/15/1967    47
07/22/1947    47
07/04/1972    48
07/06/1967    48
07/07/1960    48
07/14/1950    48
07/01/1924    49
07/01/1944    49
07/02/1882    49
07/02/1942    49
07/03/1945    49
07/03/1968    49
07/06/1960    49
07/14/1930    49
07/14/1960    49
07/18/1979    49
07/21/1950    49
07/29/1981    49
07/30/1956    49
07/31/1891    49
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About 0.31" of rain here today. Was in Racine for awhile today during the downpours. Saw quite a bit of ponding on the roads. 

 

A somewhat decent looking line of storms moving into the northern suburbs now. 34k foot tops to them.

 

High of only 69° today - was supposed to be about 77°! haha

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Nice pics Kevlon! Like the pictures where you have a contrast between what's on the ground and the sky.

 

Looks like I'll miss the most intense part of this line. It's thundering here now.

 

Edit: Storm is meh. More of the same from earlier today.

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0.39" from the early morning and late afternoon stuff.  Had a brief but heavy shower beneath a developing storm around 4pm.  Dews have really dropped off the last hour or two.  Was in the mid 60s, but back into the mid 50s.  Skies are clear now, but the eastern and southeastern horizon is still full of thunderheads.

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