IWXwx Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Wow DLL, that's some ferocious looking hail. I don't mind small hail, but I don't want to see any of that. IWX mentions 2009 in their afternoon disco, (makes Chicagowx smile). Also mentioned lake effect rain showers, with some heavy rain possible. Oh, and the possibility of some waterspouts. Could a little interesting weather around the lake this weekend. MUCH COOLER AIR COMES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH 850MBTEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST 8C WITH SOME MODELS DOWN TO5C. A QUICK LOOK AT ANALOGS INCLUDING CIPS SHOWS A FEW EVENTS WITHSIMILAR MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUT FEW IF ANY SHOWING 850MB TEMPS THISCOOL FOR LATE JULY. PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE COOL SUMMER OF 2009.DELTA T VALUES WOULD EASILY BE IN THE MID TEENS GIVEN RELATIVELYWARM LAKE IN THE LOWER 20C RANGE. MODELS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ONTHIS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE AND EVEN MORE COARSE GFSAND ECMWF SHOWING SOME GOOD QPF FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. WITHANOMALOUS LOW STILL OVER THE LAKES AND STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILLINTRODUCE THE RARE JULY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER CHANCE TO FORECASTFOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IF RAIN SHOWERS CANDEVELOP THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN A FEW WARMSEASON LAKE EFFECT RAIN EVENTS IN THE PAST. WATERSPOUTS WOULD ALSOBE A POSSIBILITY WITH WARM LAKE AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS BUT LITTLECONFIDENCE IN THIS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A MENTION HERE AT THISTIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Beautiful day, 77 was the high. although have had 7 nights this month in the 40's... 3 of those nights were even low 40's. took this today at Rex beach a few miles from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Pretty nice night again. Warmer of course, but not humid. 67/57 Overall temperatures this month averaging near normal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 NAM has freezing levels around 6,000 feet in Green Bay on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 MET guidance is showing a high of 62 for both RAC and MKE on Saturday and fwiw, 4km NAM has us in the 40's Saturday morning. MKE record low max and min's for 7/27-7/29 07/27/1981 64 07/28/1981 64 07/29/1882 67 07/27/1962 52 07/28/1967 53 07/29/1981 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 NAM hires showing a spot of 30s in WI Saturday morning. NAM op model has a spot of freezing levels at 850mb also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 I'm not very confident in this happening but there's at least a mentionable chance that LAF doesn't hit 70 on Saturday. Sub 70 highs in July are very uncommon...in fact, there have only been 6 occurrences at the airport from 1944-2013 (some missing data so actual total may be higher). Interestingly, 3 of them have come since 2009. 68: 7/1/2009, 7/21/1996, 7/28/1971 69: 7/2/2013, 7/4/2009, 7/7/1992 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 I'm not very confident in this happening but there's at least a mentionable chance that LAF doesn't hit 70 on Saturday. Sub 70 highs in July are very uncommon...in fact, there have only been 6 occurrences at the airport from 1944-2013 (some missing data so actual total may be higher). Interestingly, 3 of them have come since 2009. 68: 7/1/2009, 7/21/1996, 7/28/1971 69: 7/2/2013, 7/4/2009, 7/7/1992 Not happening for them, but I posted all the July sub 70º days for Indianapolis in the summer thread. But, the record low maximum temp for tomorrow for Indy is 73º (set in 2004). Might have a chance...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 -18 - -20 500mb temps coveing the glov this weekend....about 4 std. devs. below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Like back in June, just when it begins to get dry we get good rain. Last night we got a nice 1.53" and the 1-2" totals were widespread across the area. Combined with the cool weather that pretty much removes any chance the 'abnormally dry' shading on the drought map will creep into the northeast third of Iowa anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 I feel for people along the lakes and on the water this weekend. Its going to be nasty. Hoodies in July is absured like T shirts in January. The real enjoyment will be in the state forest areas as it looks to be a good hiking weekend. Low temps and a few showers to keep it misty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 OP Euro did a much better job than its ensemble mean, from 10 days out, on sniffing out this cold shot. Alas, blind squirrel... 0z 7/19 850 temp forecast for 0z 7/29: 0z 7/26 850 temp forecast for 0z 7/29: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Some showers building in this morning. About 66° right now. Kind of breezy too. Right now I've got 49° in my point and click for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Turning out to be a really cool day and rainy. Some healthy downpours moving through! Edit: Hasn't made it beyond 70 yet today. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Raw model output continues to advertise mid 40s here on Sunday morning while MOS from both models is warmer (50). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 going to be a great weekend around here to start chopping and splitting wood for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Lots of wind the last hour or so.... nice day with sun and clouds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Picked up 0.66" of rain so far and its been stuck in the 60's all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 0C contour showing up at 850mb on the mesoanalysis page. Looks to be a pretty good chance MKE records a low in the 40's this weekend, which has happened 34 other times in July 07/01/1965 40 07/10/1963 44 07/04/1963 45 07/05/1972 45 07/09/1961 45 07/16/1945 45 07/04/1960 46 07/05/1967 46 07/06/1965 46 07/15/1960 46 07/02/2001 47 07/06/1983 47 07/09/1895 47 07/11/1945 47 07/15/1967 47 07/22/1947 47 07/04/1972 48 07/06/1967 48 07/07/1960 48 07/14/1950 48 07/01/1924 49 07/01/1944 49 07/02/1882 49 07/02/1942 49 07/03/1945 49 07/03/1968 49 07/06/1960 49 07/14/1930 49 07/14/1960 49 07/18/1979 49 07/21/1950 49 07/29/1981 49 07/30/1956 49 07/31/1891 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Bull Valley. Garden (corn field) variety t-storm. Nice to watch roll in. Thunder. Breezy with some moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 About 0.31" of rain here today. Was in Racine for awhile today during the downpours. Saw quite a bit of ponding on the roads. A somewhat decent looking line of storms moving into the northern suburbs now. 34k foot tops to them. High of only 69° today - was supposed to be about 77°! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Nice pics Kevlon! Like the pictures where you have a contrast between what's on the ground and the sky. Looks like I'll miss the most intense part of this line. It's thundering here now. Edit: Storm is meh. More of the same from earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 0.39" from the early morning and late afternoon stuff. Had a brief but heavy shower beneath a developing storm around 4pm. Dews have really dropped off the last hour or two. Was in the mid 60s, but back into the mid 50s. Skies are clear now, but the eastern and southeastern horizon is still full of thunderheads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Some 40s up around Lake Superior. Grand Marais Minnesota has a wind chill of 37. Ouch. EDIT: Wind chill now at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Wow, that's impressive - wind chills in the 30s in the Midwest! Cold front passing through now. 0.35" of rain today total. Broke the 28" mark today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 INL shattered their record low max for today, with a high of 57. Old record was 62 in 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Picture of storm after it passed this evening. Amazing view with the setting sun illuminating the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 It actually feels like late Sept out there..I had on long sleeves on my bike ride. Gorgeous night to sit around a campfire and get loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Sitting at 60° now. Should make it down to the low 50s tonight. Most of eastern WI with 850mb's under 2.5°C Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 43 at LAF...I'll eat my hat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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