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July 2013 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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PWs are at around 2 inches across southern lower MI with little moisture advection occurring, so it probably won't change much by tomorrow. Currently 78/75 at DTW and 75/74 here. Just gross out.  Extremely moist ridge unlike last year's desert/drought-sourced specials, that's for sure.

 

The synoptic situation seems no more unfavorable tomorrow for Florida-like convection than it did today, but we'll see.

 

We are going to start off more moist (dewpoints well into the 70s versus Tuesday morning versus dewpoints only around 70*F Monday morning) and unstable (CAPE values greater than 2000 J/KG Tuesday morning versus only 1000 J/KG of CAPE on Monday morning), so that can't hurt. If anything, that may help us initiate things earlier in the day.

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87/74 here now!  :axe:

 

HI: 96°

 

Nice cumulus are up. I would say the lake breeze and showers are probably about to start developing.

 

LOT disco about the t-storm threat.

 

 

AS MENTIONED THERE IS NO FORCING ALOFT TODAY AS WE SIT PARKED ALMOST
DIRECTLY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...HOWEVER VWP SHOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS
OFF THE DECK DIMINISHING FROM THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMA AND THINK WE
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE A LAKE BREEZE FORM THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
LOW LFC`S THE SHALLOW FORCING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE WITH NO CAP
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ALREADY SEEING VERY HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD
BLOSSOMING NEAR THE CONVERGENCE ZONE DOWNTOWN...SO GIVEN THE SET UP
AM PLANNING TO BUMP UP POPS SOME TODAY OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES
IN ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR ALOFT TODAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
RAISES THE MICROBURST THREAT SOME OVER YESTERDAY AND THINK THE
THREAT OF A PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS A BIT GREATER TODAY.

 

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1058 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0730 PM FLOOD REDFORD 42.39N 83.29W

07/15/2013 WAYNE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

GAGE MEASURED 3.6 INCHES OF RAIN IN 1 HOUR RESULTED IN

SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING OF STREETS, BASEMENTS, AND GARAGES

AROUND THE AREA OF 5 MILE AND INKSTER ROADS.

Wow, truly a tropical style airmass in place right now.

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Already 3-4k SBCAPE in MI

 

DTW is at 89/76. HI 100. PWs > 2 inches, SBCAPE ~3.5kJ/kg, MLCAPE ~3kJ/kg. Nothing to steer storms anywhere. Wouldn't be surprised to see some storm reports along the lines of those from yesterday again.

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Impressive Wayne, MI rainfall tally!

 

Heat Advisory issued for the western MKX cwa.

 

 

 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1145 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY....A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITEDSTATES WILL KEEP A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSININTO FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER80S TO LOWER 90S AND DUE TO THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT LEVELS...HEATINDICES WILL HOVER IN THE 95 TO 99 RANGE SOME LOCALLY HIGHERVALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN RURAL AREAS WHERE FIELDS OF MATURING CROPSADD MORE MOISTURE TO THE AIR.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CANADIANHIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067-068-170045-/O.NEW.KMKX.HT.Y.0001.130716T1645Z-130720T0000Z/MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-SAUK-COLUMBIA-IOWA-DANE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...DARLINGTON...MONROE1145 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AHEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY.* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS AROUND 90 WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 99  EACH AFTERNOON. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT  HOURS AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE  LOWER TO MID 70S.* IMPACTS...THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS HEAT WAVE MAY CAUSE AN  INCREASE IN HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE  HEAT CAN BE MOST STRESSFUL ON SMALL CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY...OR  THOSE WITH MEDICAL CONDITIONS. LEAVING A CHILD OR A PET IN AN  ENCLOSED VEHICLE...EVEN FOR A SHORT TIME...CAN BE DEADLY.



			
		
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Showing 95F here today...  I need to live by the lake.  Dews in the lower 70Fs.. 

 

88F/73F already..ugh...few clouds out there to break up some of the sunshine.

 

Eh...you'll be glad that you don't in late November and wishing for snow.

 

Hit 90 here finally.

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Looks like some cool mornings coming up toward the end of the weekend and into early next week. I think we'll have a shot to best the 53 that we put up a few days ago.

850mb temps on the GFS drop to 6-8C. Could see some record lows for anyone directly under the surface high.

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IND has finally made it to 90 (91 to be exact).

 

#2 of the year for LAF today as well.

 

Looks like some cool mornings coming up toward the end of the weekend and into early next week. I think we'll have a shot to best the 53 that we put up a few days ago.

 

 First call of 52º for Monday morning. :D 

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