July 2013 General Discussion

[OSNW3]

Sharing some more cycling weather pattern junk.

 

18Z GFS shows promise in it's range, as the OSNW3 LRC ISO ensemble for Oshkosh, WI has it pegged. We will see.

 

 

I've been working on a 3 member ensemble for a couple months. At the moment, and for the remainder of 12-13, the locations on the site project with a "full blend" cycle only...

[Geos]

Bit warmer tonight at this hour compared to the past 2 nights. 66/63 right now.

[Stebo]

I am getting interested in the period toward the end of the week, when the jet starts to sink south into this very unstable pattern. Any sort of ripple could spark a pretty good wind convective outbreak, more so wind than tornadoes. The 2 days I am looking at are Thursday and Friday.

[IWXwx]

I am getting interested in the period toward the end of the week, when the jet starts to sink south into this very unstable pattern. Any sort of ripple could spark a pretty good wind convective outbreak, more so wind than tornadoes. The 2 days I am looking at are Thursday and Friday.

 

SPC has also taken notice:

 

[Stebo]

SPC has also taken notice:

 

day48prob.gif

Yeah SPC busting out the big guns there, Day 5-7 risks

  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0356 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013   VALID 171200Z - 221200Z   ...DISCUSSION...   MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLE D5 /THU JUL 18/ THROUGH D7 /SUN JUL   20/   MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS...ECMWF AND CMC GLOBAL MODELING   SYSTEMS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION   DURING THE D4-8 PERIOD SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH   MOVING ACROSS SERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES.  AS   THIS OCCURS A SURFACE LOW...INITIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WILL   MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND SERN CANADA WHILE A   TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS   GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES.  ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS   AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE EXHIBITED MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THAN   THE GFS IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORT WAVE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED   WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...A SIMILAR LARGE   SCALE SIGNAL FROM MULTIPLE MODELING SYSTEMS SUGGESTS PATTERN   PREDICTABILITY IS RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE REGION   OF INTEREST.   A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT OVER THE   NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN STATES ON D4-5 IN   ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE   POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL TO   OCCUR WITH SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.    ALTHOUGH PRIMARY THREAT AREAS MAY BE MODULATED BY EFFECTS OF PRIOR   CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING   APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO DELINEATE REGIONS OF ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL   DURING THIS PERIOD.     D5 /THU JUL 18/...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY   LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG/NORTH OF A   WARM FRONT...WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY SPREADING EWD DURING THE   OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE   SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD AND THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS...STRENGTHENS AND   BECOMES COUPLED WITH A STRONG WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED   IMMEDIATELY TO ITS NORTH.     D6 /FRI JUL 19/...THE ELONGATED COUPLED LOW/MID LEVEL JET STRUCTURE   IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NERN   STATES AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND THE COLD   FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD/ESEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT   FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NRN PARTS OF THE NERN STATES.   D7 /SAT JUL 20/...THE COLD FRONT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE   ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NERN STATES AND NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC   REGION MAINTAINING A SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS AREA.

[OSNW3]

I read @JoshKetchenWx FB post the other day. Tossed some images together in regards to cycling weather patterns.

 

Images located at my Tweet (https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/355695084676730881) or the FB post linked above.

 

Safe to say a "full blend" of cycles was on target months ago.

[Geos]

Humid weather is definitely back today! 78/68 currently.

 

It will be interesting to see if our summer pattern so far will continue till the end. With trough, then ridge/ring of fire pattern, then back to trough.

[Chitown Storm]

84/64 here now and it feels sticky already. Low 90s/low 70s gonna feel gross this week. Corn will be sweating bullets.

[cyclone77]

86/67 here with some building fair-weather cu.  Finally starting to dry out for the first time since late winter.  Looks like a hot and dry week ahead around these parts.  NWS has included a token 20% chance of rain several days this week, but it looks like the rain should mainly stay northeast of here. 

[Powerball]

eck!!!

 

Also on July 14, 1992, Detroit had a high temperature of 83 degrees. This is about the average high temperature for mid July, but it was the warmest day in Detroit in July of 1992, the second coldest July on record and part of the "Cold Summer of 1992".

[Powerball]

There goes that GGEM popping a 600dm ridge again...

 

[Geos]

That's nasty looking Powerball!

 

82/67 here at about 2:30pm. Warm, but nothing like it will be later in the week.

 

Edit:

Pretty cool sat image of the cumulus field this Sunday afternoon.

 

[daddylonglegs]

86F/63F here...dews still aren't climbing...  i wonder if the dry soils are helping...maybe the corn just isn't big enough yet to really transpire a lot of moisture?  Who knows...  the grass here is turning crunchy brown...  been watering a lot lately.

[OSNW3]

Humid weather is definitely back today! 78/68 currently.

 

It will be interesting to see if our summer pattern so far will continue till the end. With trough, then ridge/ring of fire pattern, then back to trough.

 

August will cool down mid way through. Should be active around here (WI) as well.

[OSNW3]

Had a little rain this morning...enough to wet the ground..sun back out now...  humidity still hasn't risen much...dews in the upper 50fs still.

 

 

Was in Lake Michigan for about 2 hours today... Kohler Andrae State Park (WI). Water temps felt about upper 60's like this map shows. Chilly at first touch, but perfectly fine seconds afterward.

[daddylonglegs]

Mississippi River here must be in the mid/upper 70Fs..  

 

90F/61F...we tagged another 9 o...

[hm8]

There goes that GGEM popping a 600dm ridge again...

 

 

 

GFS joins the club

 

 

ukie too

 

[Geos]

83° for a high today here. Wind continued off the lake today. Lots of boats on the lake as well.

[Hoosier]

GFS joins the club

ukie too

Gotta get it on a RAOB. It's that whole if the tree falls in the forest thing.

Some of the highest 500 mb heights on the planet are going to be in our backyards this week. Would much rather have severe wx to track but gonna have to wait a while for decent chances.

[daddylonglegs]

Geos-

 

I wish i would have had the camera with down at Riverside last night...the river was just full of boats...  The weather was gorgeous and it was Sat nite, so not shocking...but it was just wave after wave of bass boats, pontoons, run abouts, little fishing boats...  I've got a few neighbors that seem to go out every single day..   lots of "river rats" in this area.

 

If I lived near L Michigan, i would drive a boat right across to Michigan...  although i'd probably run out of fuel and the winds would pick up and waves would build quickly...and i'd end up swimming.

[jmg378s]

Gotta get it on a RAOB. It's that whole if the tree falls in the forest thing.

Some of the highest 500 mb heights on the planet are going to be in our backyards this week. Would much rather have severe wx to track but gonna have to wait a while for decent chances.

 

I think the 0z Pittsburg sounding already measured a 6000m 500mb height right?

[Hoosier]

I think the 0z Pittsburg sounding already measured a 6000m 500mb height right?

Yep, good catch.

Date:0000Z 15 JUL 13
Station: KPIT
WMO ident:  72520
Latitude:   40.50
Longitude: -80.22
Elevation: 373.00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   205                                                                 
SFC  983   373  30.0  19.0  52 11.0  22.2   0   0 304.6 307.3 296.0 347.0 14.21
  2  979   408  29.0  18.0  52 11.0  21.3  26   1 304.0 306.5 295.2 343.8 13.38
  3  941   749  25.8  15.8  54 10.0  19.0 170   4 304.2 306.4 294.4 340.2 12.08
  4  925   895  24.2  15.2  57  9.0  18.1 165   3 304.1 306.2 294.1 339.3 11.82
  5  880  1329  20.0  15.4  75  4.6  16.9 170   5 304.1 306.4 294.7 341.6 12.60
  6  850  1628  17.8  13.4  75  4.4  14.9 170   4 304.8 306.9 294.1 339.0 11.44
  7  787  2282  13.0  11.0  88  2.0  11.7 217   7 306.4 308.4 293.9 338.2 10.54
  8  772  2444  12.2   9.8  85  2.4  10.7 220   7 307.3 309.1 293.6 337.2  9.90
  9  753  2653  13.0   5.0  58  8.0   8.3 220  10 310.3 311.7 292.4 332.8  7.28
 10  731  2903  12.6   2.6  50 10.0   6.9 218  11 312.5 313.7 292.3 332.3  6.32
 11  724  2983  12.6  -1.4  38 14.0   5.2 218  11 313.4 314.3 291.3 328.5  4.77
 12  700  3266  11.0  -5.0  32 16.0   3.1 215  12 314.7 315.4 290.8 326.7  3.76
 13  676  3556   9.0  -8.0  29 17.0   1.1 216  13 315.6 316.2 290.5 325.6  3.09
 14  625  4204   6.8 -11.2  26 18.0  -1.1 342   2 320.2 320.7 291.4 328.9  2.60
 15  594  4619   3.6 -13.4  28 17.0  -3.4  90   7 321.2 321.7 291.4 328.9  2.29
 16  555  5169   1.0 -17.0  25 18.0  -5.8 160  10 324.4 324.8 291.9 330.7  1.82
 17  520  5690  -2.5 -20.5  24 18.0  -8.7 151   7 326.3 326.6 292.1 331.3  1.44
 18  508  5875  -3.9 -16.9  36 13.0  -8.7 147   6 326.8 327.2 292.7 333.7  2.00
 19  500  6000  -4.5 -17.5  35 13.0  -9.2 145   5 327.6 327.9 292.9 334.3  1.93

[Geos]

DLL - Sounds like a busy day on the river! The lake is about 70 miles across straight across from here. I think about 80 miles across at it's maximum width. You would need a decent sized boat to do that. 

 

Down to 70° now. Mosquitoes are back in full force tonight after about 3 nights of minimal activity.

[hm8]

600 

 

[Powerball]

If this altostratus doesn't burn off faster and convection manages to initiate like the models are hinting by mid-afternoon, we're still going to be 0 for 6 in the 90*F department (maybe another 88*F or 89*F).

 

Funny, only in this Summer would both altostratus and convection be potential issues under a 600dm ridge this far north.

[Stebo]

If this altostratus doesn't burn off faster and convection manages to initiate like the models are hinting by mid-afternoon, we're still going to be 0 for 6 in the 90*F department (maybe another 88*F or 89*F).

 

Funny, only in this Summer would both altostratus and convection be potential issues under a 600dm ridge this far north.

They are starting to burn off, I can see visually and the satellite matches what I am seeing as well. Temperatures should start to rise nicely over the next 3-4hrs.

[daddylonglegs]

DP has jumped here over night..up to 68F now...  Heat is on this week..   Going to be a lot of watering needed.

[Geos]

Bright sunshine right now with warm and humid conditions. Already 80/73 outside.

 

Will definitely need to water the garden and my ferns this week.

[Brewers]

Holding steady at 82. Can already feel the lake breeze.

Already getting some CU development.

[aurora]

Wouldn't be surprised to see some popcorn thunderstorms over SE Michigan this afternoon. 12z DTX sounding shows that the cap should be gone by afternoon, and with little to no surface winds, there should be no trouble getting a lake breeze to move inland.