Powerball Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 NAM thinks so Sunday: Monday: Only this summer would feature such marginal potential for 90*F+ temps despite heights above 594dm (with 850mb temps of only 18*C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Another month and the ragweed should be flying... can't wait Record cold Sept? Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Beautiful July weather today. Captured these high clouds a bit ago. (shot through my sunglasses) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 That is the problem with new subdivisions (above)...No shade! What would be cool is to come back n 10 years and take the same pictures...be pretty startling i bet. NWS has no rain right through next week..temps around 90F every day.. Grass here is already starting to brown (does it every year)... Sandy soil around here dries out so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Buoy at the south end of L Michigan showing 69F water temp... Buoy on L Superior showing 39F...ouch http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=45006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 That is the problem with new subdivisions (above)...No shade! What would be cool is to come back n 10 years and take the same pictures...be pretty startling i bet. NWS has no rain right through next week..temps around 90F every day.. Grass here is already starting to brown (does it every year)... Sandy soil around here dries out so fast. even worse are subdivisions like mine (that were built in the 90's) where nearly every parkway tree is a dying ash tree.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 253 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2013 IF YOU WANT RAIN...YOU MIGHT WANT TO INVEST IN A TELEPORTER. WHILE IT WILL BE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE NO FOCUS NEARBY FOR FORMATION...AND AS ALWAYS...IT APPEARS MODELS ARE OVERDONE ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND CAPE VALUES. POPS LOADED FROM MODELS SEEM WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE MOST I CAN SEE OCCURRING WITHOUT SOME BOUNDARY TO FOCUS STORMS ON IS AROUND 5 PERCENT ACTUAL COVERAGE AND FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THE ECMWF AND GFS BE CORRECT ON FLATTENING THE UPPER HIGH BY NEXT WEEKEND...SOME MCS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN OR NEAR OUR CWA. BY THAT TIME...WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED THE RAIN. ERVIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I'm glad I was among the lucky who got a solid 1" rain a few days ago because there doesn't appear to be any additional rain in sight. Even if it's dry for 7-10+ days the temps will be much better than last year's 95-100+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 That is the problem with new subdivisions (above)...No shade! What would be cool is to come back n 10 years and take the same pictures...be pretty startling i bet. NWS has no rain right through next week..temps around 90F every day.. Grass here is already starting to brown (does it every year)... Sandy soil around here dries out so fast. Yeah definitely not much shade there. That was a farm field 5 years ago. Big difference in my neighborhood where the trees are mature. 77/57 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Yeah definitely not much shade there. That was a farm field 5 years ago. Big difference in my neighborhood where the trees are mature. 77/57 right now. My wife lived in a new home when i met her...parents sold the house a few years later...we were back up in that area maybe a year ago or so and it wasn't even recognizable... trees were huge. What I hate about our house (faces south) is no shade on the house itself...the roof is literally bathed in sunshine from sun up to sun down and we only have ridge venting, which i doubt moves nearly the amount of air that those big spinners move.... If i had the means i'd cover it in solar panels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 As ALEK would say zzzzzzz..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 The DTW streak of sub 90 readings might be toast next week. Its over by Tuesday without a doubt, probably Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 High 77° today. Perfect day. DLL - yeah might as well make use of the sun all day if your facing south! Edit: Just realized the low was 48° this morning! Quite an accomplishment for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 D4-8 seems to be suggesting the potential for a severe event with an intense anomaly/vort max diving southeastward out of the Hudson Bay region around this time next week (much more prominent on the Euro). DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013 VALID 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYS 7-8 /FRI JUL 19-SAT JUL 20/. A WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE...SUGGESTING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS. HOWEVER...IN A GENERAL SENSE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES ON DAY 6 /THU JUL 18/ THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON D7 /FRI JUL 19/ BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION ON D8/. 00Z ECMWF WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS PREDICTS...AND AS EXPECTED THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TEND TO OVERLY SMOOTH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS. SINCE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE D4-8 PERIOD...PREFER TO SEE ADDITIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORECASTS OVER MULTIPLE MODEL CYCLES BEFORE DELINEATING ANY 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY AREAS WITH THIS MUCH LEAD TIME. HOWEVER...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SCENARIO WITH RELATIVELY SMALL VARIANCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THE POSSIBILITY OF A MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. ..WEISS.. 07/13/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Squeaked out another sub 60º temp this morning at LAF, which makes 3 in a row...and 4 total for the month so far. Not something unusual typically, but when compared to the past couple of Julys... Total number of sub 60º mins at LAF in July, since 1971: 2013: 4 days (thru 7/13) 2012: 1 day 2011: 1 day 2010: 3 days 2009: 9 days 2008: 7 days 2007: 8 days 2006: 5 days 2005: 7 days 2004: 7 days 2003: 7 days 2002: 3 days 2001: 10 days 2000: 10 days 1999: 5 days 1998: 8 days 1997: 10 days 1996: 15 days 1995: 6 days 1994: 8 days 1993: 1 day 1992: 7 days 1989-1991: data missing 1988: 6 days 1987: 3 days 1986: 3 days 1985: 14 days 1984: 14 days 1983: 5 days 1982: 6 days 1981: 6 days 1980: 2 days 1979: 11 days 1978: 2 days 1977: 7 days 1976: 12 days 1975: 7 days 1974: 4 days 1973: 4 days 1972: 10 days 1971: 14 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Point clicker has DP's at or above 70 from monday morning straight through friday morning....looking for one more night of fresh air tonight before I am forced to close up the house and crank the AC to keep the indoor humidity in check throughout the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Tagged 57° this morning. Up to 77° now. Might be a degree or two warmer than yesterday the way it's going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Today is the anniversary of this beauty... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul1995derechopage.htm#2nd1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Then there was this on July 7, 1991... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul7-81991page.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Impressive ridge being depicted next week from a 500 mb perspective. All models agree on a broad area of heights greater than 594 dm with a sizable area greater than 597 dm. Will be interesting to see if the elusive 600 dm can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 It looks like, (per 12z GFS) temps will be upper 80's low 90's through Thursday, however, it's the humidity that is going to drive up the heat indices. Wednesday, 18z temps are being shown as upper 80's to 90. Thursday and Friday are much the same thing. Yesterday, Skilling was talking mid 90's by Thursday. It's going to be uncomfortable, no matter how you slice it. Rain for the weekend as well, it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Had a little rain this morning...enough to wet the ground..sun back out now... humidity still hasn't risen much...dews in the upper 50fs still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Got a pleasant surprise today with all-day clouds and cool temp(60s this morning, 70s this afternoon). I was able to get some good yard work done without sweating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 The trough being shown for next weekend on the GEM and Euro looks mighty fine. Just need the GFS on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 The trough being shown for next weekend on the GEM and Euro looks mighty fine. Just need the GFS on board. Nice, although it hasn't been a hot summer, we haven't seen many monster troughs (just the one at the beginning of the month that resulted in back to back highs in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 13, 2013 Author Share Posted July 13, 2013 Nice... KDPA GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 7/12/2013 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19|SAT CLIMO N/X 57 86| 64 89| 68 90| 70 90| 72 90| 70 90| 69 91| 68 62 84 TMP 63 79| 68 82| 72 84| 74 84| 75 85| 74 85| 73 85| 71 DPT 57 63| 66 67| 70 73| 71 73| 72 71| 70 69| 68 69| 67 WND 6 7| 6 7| 6 7| 6 8| 6 8| 7 11| 7 12| 7 P12 4 6| 3 14| 21 39| 29 26| 19 23| 21 19| 32 23| 30999999 P24 6| 14| 45| 48| 36| 33| 49| 999 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 0| 0| 1| 1| 0| 0| | T12 0 3| 2 3| 14 28| 31 25| 19 29| 17 23| 16 24| 26 T24 | 3 | 19 | 41 | 37 | 42 | 41 | 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Impressive ridge being depicted next week from a 500 mb perspective. All models agree on a broad area of heights greater than 594 dm with a sizable area greater than 597 dm. Will be interesting to see if the elusive 600 dm can happen. 12z GEM says you may just get your wish (almost directly over LAF at that)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 79° for today. A tad more humid than yesterday. I could dig the rest of the summer if the troughs keep on coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 Impressive ridge being depicted next week from a 500 mb perspective. All models agree on a broad area of heights greater than 594 dm with a sizable area greater than 597 dm. Will be interesting to see if the elusive 600 dm can happen. Long term forecaster at IWX called it a 599 dm ridge in this morning's discussion. Not sure where he got that specific number. Temps should be kept somewhat in check with all of the moisture, but it's going to feel mighty tropical this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 Tagged 57° this morning. Up to 77° now. Might be a degree or two warmer than yesterday the way it's going. The upper 50's have felt real nice in the AM lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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