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July 2013 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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That is the problem with new subdivisions (above)...No shade!   What would be cool is to come back n 10 years and take the same pictures...be pretty startling i bet. 

 

NWS has no rain right through next week..temps around 90F every day..  Grass here is already starting to brown (does it every year)...  Sandy soil around here dries out so fast.

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That is the problem with new subdivisions (above)...No shade!   What would be cool is to come back n 10 years and take the same pictures...be pretty startling i bet. 

 

NWS has no rain right through next week..temps around 90F every day..  Grass here is already starting to brown (does it every year)...  Sandy soil around here dries out so fast.

 

even worse are subdivisions like mine (that were built in the 90's) where nearly every parkway tree is a dying ash tree....

 

:thumbsdown:

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

253 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2013

IF YOU WANT RAIN...YOU MIGHT WANT TO INVEST IN A TELEPORTER.

WHILE IT WILL BE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE NO

FOCUS NEARBY FOR FORMATION...AND AS ALWAYS...IT APPEARS MODELS ARE

OVERDONE ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND CAPE VALUES. POPS LOADED FROM

MODELS SEEM WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE MOST I CAN SEE OCCURRING WITHOUT

SOME BOUNDARY TO FOCUS STORMS ON IS AROUND 5 PERCENT ACTUAL COVERAGE

AND FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SHOULD THE ECMWF AND GFS BE CORRECT ON FLATTENING THE UPPER HIGH BY

NEXT WEEKEND...SOME MCS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN OR NEAR OUR CWA. BY

THAT TIME...WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED THE RAIN.

ERVIN

 

 

 

:scooter: 

 

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That is the problem with new subdivisions (above)...No shade!   What would be cool is to come back n 10 years and take the same pictures...be pretty startling i bet. 

 

NWS has no rain right through next week..temps around 90F every day..  Grass here is already starting to brown (does it every year)...  Sandy soil around here dries out so fast.

 

Yeah definitely not much shade there. That was a farm field 5 years ago. Big difference in my neighborhood where the trees are mature.

 

77/57 right now.

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Yeah definitely not much shade there. That was a farm field 5 years ago. Big difference in my neighborhood where the trees are mature.

 

77/57 right now.

My wife lived in a new home when i met her...parents sold the house a few years later...we were back up in that area maybe a year ago or so and it wasn't even recognizable... trees were huge.   

 

What I hate about our house (faces south) is no shade on the house itself...the roof is literally bathed in sunshine from sun up to sun down and we only have ridge venting, which i doubt moves nearly the amount of air that those big spinners move....  If i had the means i'd cover it in solar panels...

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High 77° today. Perfect day.

 

DLL - yeah might as well make use of the sun all day if your facing south!

 

Edit: Just realized the low was 48° this morning! Quite an accomplishment for July.

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D4-8 seems to be suggesting the potential for a severe event with an intense anomaly/vort max diving southeastward out of the Hudson Bay region around this time next week (much more prominent on the Euro).

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0357 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013   VALID 161200Z - 211200Z   ...DISCUSSION...   MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS   DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT   INDICATING GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN WITH A BROAD   LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES   DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS   FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE   VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES   AND NERN STATES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYS 7-8 /FRI JUL 19-SAT JUL   20/.  A WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE   AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING UPPER   RIDGE...SUGGESTING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE   STORMS TO DEVELOP.   THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND   SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS.  HOWEVER...IN   A GENERAL SENSE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT   WILL INCREASE OVER UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES ON DAY 6 /THU   JUL 18/ THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON D7   /FRI JUL 19/ BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN STATES/MID   ATLANTIC REGION ON D8/.  00Z ECMWF WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR   PARAMETERS ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS PREDICTS...AND AS   EXPECTED THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TEND TO OVERLY SMOOTH THE SYNOPTIC   SCALE DETAILS.  SINCE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE   IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE D4-8 PERIOD...PREFER TO SEE ADDITIONAL   MODEL AGREEMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORECASTS OVER   MULTIPLE MODEL CYCLES BEFORE DELINEATING ANY 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY   AREAS WITH THIS MUCH LEAD TIME.  HOWEVER...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS   MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SCENARIO WITH RELATIVELY SMALL   VARIANCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THE POSSIBILITY OF A MULTI-DAY SEVERE   EVENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WILL BECOME MORE   LIKELY.   ..WEISS.. 07/13/2013
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Squeaked out another sub 60º temp this morning at LAF, which makes 3 in a row...and 4 total for the month so far. Not something unusual typically, but when compared to the past couple of Julys...

 

Total number of sub 60º mins at LAF in July, since 1971:

 

2013: 4 days (thru 7/13)

2012: 1 day

2011: 1 day

2010: 3 days

2009: 9 days

2008: 7 days

2007: 8 days

2006: 5 days

2005: 7 days

2004: 7 days

2003: 7 days

2002: 3 days

2001: 10 days

2000: 10 days

1999: 5 days

1998: 8 days

1997: 10 days

1996: 15 days

1995: 6 days

1994: 8 days

1993: 1 day

1992: 7 days

1989-1991: data missing

1988: 6 days

1987: 3 days

1986: 3 days

1985: 14 days

1984: 14 days

1983: 5 days

1982: 6 days

1981: 6 days

1980: 2 days

1979: 11 days

1978: 2 days

1977: 7 days

1976: 12 days

1975: 7 days

1974: 4 days

1973: 4 days

1972: 10 days

1971: 14 days

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It looks like, (per 12z GFS)  temps will be upper 80's low 90's through Thursday, however, it's the humidity that is going to drive up the heat indices. 

 

Wednesday, 18z  temps are being shown as upper 80's to 90.  Thursday and Friday are much the same thing.  Yesterday, Skilling was talking mid 90's by Thursday. 

 

It's going to be uncomfortable, no matter how you slice it.   Rain for the weekend as well, it would appear.

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The trough being shown for next weekend  on the GEM and Euro looks mighty fine. Just need the GFS on board.

 

Nice, although it hasn't been a hot summer, we haven't seen many monster troughs (just the one at the beginning of the month that resulted in back to back highs in the 60s.

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Nice...

KDPA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/12/2013  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  57  86| 64  89| 68  90| 70  90| 72  90| 70  90| 69  91| 68 62 84
 TMP  63  79| 68  82| 72  84| 74  84| 75  85| 74  85| 73  85| 71      
 DPT  57  63| 66  67| 70  73| 71  73| 72  71| 70  69| 68  69| 67      
 WND   6   7|  6   7|  6   7|  6   8|  6   8|  7  11|  7  12|  7      
 P12   4   6|  3  14| 21  39| 29  26| 19  23| 21  19| 32  23| 30999999
 P24       6|     14|     45|     48|     36|     33|     49|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      1|      1|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   0   3|  2   3| 14  28| 31  25| 19  29| 17  23| 16  24| 26      
 T24        |  3    | 19    | 41    | 37    | 42    | 41    | 37  
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Impressive ridge being depicted next week from a 500 mb perspective. All models agree on a broad area of heights greater than 594 dm with a sizable area greater than 597 dm. Will be interesting to see if the elusive 600 dm can happen.

 

12z GEM says you may just get your wish (almost directly over LAF at that)...

 

f78.gif

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Impressive ridge being depicted next week from a 500 mb perspective. All models agree on a broad area of heights greater than 594 dm with a sizable area greater than 597 dm. Will be interesting to see if the elusive 600 dm can happen.

 

Long term forecaster at IWX called it a 599 dm ridge in this morning's discussion. Not sure where he got that specific number. Temps should be kept somewhat in check with all of the moisture, but it's going to feel mighty tropical this week.

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