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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat

Nikolai

By Nikolai,
in Mid Atlantic

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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With the 18z and the 0z being different, it would be nice to hear a pro come in and give a synopsis of what would be the "perfect" evolution of this storm in this pattern. Dave is over in the model thread explaining why the runs are different, which is great, but I'd like to hear the hypothetical "perfect" evolution.

It would also be nice to read the model threads without having to hear comments like "on to the next one".

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
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With the 18z and the 0z being different, it would be nice to hear a pro come in and give a synopsis of what would be the "perfect" evolution of this storm in this pattern. Dave is over in the model thread explaining why the runs are different, which is great, but I'd like to hear the hypothetical "perfect" evolution.

It would also be nice to read the model threads without having to hear comments like "on to the next one".

People like to say Ji is joking, but I think he really is a little messed up. He gives himself these little pep-talks in threads and then storms off. I am guessing Leesburg keeps his doors locked at night.

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Dr No

Dr No

Posted
Posted

With the 18z and the 0z being different, it would be nice to hear a pro come in and give a synopsis of what would be the "perfect" evolution of this storm in this pattern. Dave is over in the model thread explaining why the runs are different, which is great, but I'd like to hear the hypothetical "perfect" evolution.

It would also be nice to read the model threads without having to hear comments like "on to the next one".

I think perfection is pretty close to what's on the 0Z GFS- just phase the pieces together a bit sooner at 500MB to deepen the coastal faster (thus hugging the coast). It's a tight balance; phase too quick and we get 18Z.

On 0Z, we never worry about mixing and the temps would probably stay in the 20's all storm. Climo track of the LP for sig snow in DC is TN valley to ORF. This track is a smidge south of that.

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JustinBerk

JustinBerk

Posted
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I went on TV this morning with a high chance for snow. I like to get the excitement stirring for Christmas- and know the potential bust in these parts... however here is what we have going for us:

#1 Model agreement. The waffling GFS has been pretty locked in for three days. The ECMWF is no n board with more of a Miller A type system tapping into the Gulf. But most important is the trend of closed Lows in New England/Eastern Canada. We can thank the storm that did miss us on Sunday for creating the block that will slow down the Christmas storm.

While I like the look of approaching the Baltimore record of 9.2"... there really isn't good support for liquid equivalent potential until 72 hours out. My professional call will be held back until Wednesday night. I highly recommend that. Once you put out a big number, you can't take it back. You can always build up though with more forgiveness from viewers.

Also remember that the Christmas snow in 2002 brought 5 inches to Towson but only 1 for BWI

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

I went on TV this morning with a high chance for snow. I like to get the excitement stirring for Christmas- and know the potential bust in these parts... however here is what we have going for us:

#1 Model agreement. The waffling GFS has been pretty locked in for three days. The ECMWF is no n board with more of a Miller A type system tapping into the Gulf. But most important is the trend of closed Lows in New England/Eastern Canada. We can thank the storm that did miss us on Sunday for creating the block that will slow down the Christmas storm.

While I like the look of approaching the Baltimore record of 9.2"... there really isn't good support for liquid equivalent potential until 72 hours out. My professional call will be held back until Wednesday night. I highly recommend that. Once you put out a big number, you can't take it back. You can always build up though with more forgiveness from viewers.

Also remember that the Christmas snow in 2002 brought 5 inches to Towson but only 1 for BWI

Thanks for the insight and information Justin! Looks like it's going to be a fun filled model watching week! :thumbsup:

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TowsonWeather

TowsonWeather

Posted
Posted

I went on TV this morning with a high chance for snow. I like to get the excitement stirring for Christmas- and know the potential bust in these parts... however here is what we have going for us:

#1 Model agreement. The waffling GFS has been pretty locked in for three days. The ECMWF is no n board with more of a Miller A type system tapping into the Gulf. But most important is the trend of closed Lows in New England/Eastern Canada. We can thank the storm that did miss us on Sunday for creating the block that will slow down the Christmas storm.

While I like the look of approaching the Baltimore record of 9.2"... there really isn't good support for liquid equivalent potential until 72 hours out. My professional call will be held back until Wednesday night. I highly recommend that. Once you put out a big number, you can't take it back. You can always build up though with more forgiveness from viewers.

Also remember that the Christmas snow in 2002 brought 5 inches to Towson but only 1 for BWI

It is amazing to me how much better the snow situation is here compared to locations just S and E. I grew up in Severna Park, and I never really understood how the difference between SP/Annapolis and Towson/Columbia and points N and W could be so extreme. But man...I just can't get over how many times I call my parents and hear that when they got 8", we got 12" up in Towson, etc etc. I mean, I understand the meteorology and the geography of it, but the major accumulation differences between locations so close to each other still surprise me.

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