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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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Got a road trip on Christmas Eve. We can wait til New Years or Jan/Feb/March for another snow.

I'd rather go visit my friends on Christmas Eve and have no snow at all - Than have a foot of snow Christmas Eve and I can't go on my road trip.

Yes - It's true - I like something else much more than snow - For the very first time in my entire life lol thumbsupsmileyanim.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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What we all really want - Snow for Christmas - won't happen just because we yearn for it. Weather is just plain weather - it happens. What we wish for or don't wish for won't ruin or make any particular day - If it snows for Christmas, we'll enjoy it with our families and friends, opening our presents, enjoying Christmas dinner and kicking back with our new electronic gadgets or whatever we wanted most for Christmas. I'll run thru the snow like a goofball and everyone will shake their head at the totally ridiculous spectacle of a 46 year old man who never grew up running thru the snow - OR - It won't snow for Christmas, and we'll still enjoy being with our families, opening our presents, enjoying Christmas dinner and kicking back with our new electronic gadgets or whatever we wanted most for Christmas.

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I don't necessarily believe the 18z GFS but I am not about to discount it either. Yes it is an outlier in the last 2 days. But... it is not so unbelievable considering the GFS has shown the low to be very close to the DC metro area with no reason it shouldn't progress further north or west. What is stopping it from being an "inland" runner?

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I 100% believe it. I knew the 16 other consecutive runs of it showing a good solution were wrong.

And many of the 18Z gfs ensembles have also shifted the primary into teh OH Valley. That's nina climo but we have a strong block so I'm not sure what to think yet and I need to write a piece for tomorrow. I sure hope the models don't all go back west. It would make for a boring piece.

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Wes: if it goes nw would it be an ip/zr event or plain rain. In other words will there be a CAD situation if it doesn't take a snow storm track?

Who knows, the pattern is one favorable for cold air damming so for at least the western suburbs would probably be sleet or ice. The euro ensemble mean having a low in WV would put the area at risk for mixing of changing issues though the high pressure to the north of us would certainly try to keep us dammed. The GFS could jump back to the operational euro solution so I wouldn't get too excited yet. Of course if the 18Z gfs were right and the secondary low tracked right over DC, dc would go to rain and would almost everyone east of the mountains.

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Maybe I am, but then maybe I'm not. Unfortunately the 18Z gfs isn't completely alone, some of its clones are on board and the euro ensemble mean still shows it cold at 850, a low in WV at 144 hrs is not what we want unless its a weak low.

The thing that gets me Wes is that it seems that the ensembles show something completely different with each run lately...is that normal and if so which set do you believe? Are there things you need to look at to see if the ensembles are missing something?

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The thing that gets me Wes is that it seems that the ensembles show something completely different with each run lately...is that normal and if so which set do you believe? Are there things you need to look at to see if the ensembles are missing something?

Maybe the message is just not to be optimistic nor pessimistic a week ahead of time. I still don't see what gain there is to invest in any outcome-- even as general as precip or no precip-- until we are within 72 hours.

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The thing that gets me Wes is that it seems that the ensembles show something completely different with each run lately...is that normal and if so which set do you believe? Are there things you need to look at to see if the ensembles are missing something?

They have been varying quite a bit, one think about esnemble in the real long ranges is there often is more spread than forecast by the models. That's why usually even if every model known to man has snow on a day 5 forecast, it's usually wise not to go much above 50 percent chance of snow and in DC, it's usually not even wise to only mention snow as its so easy for us to get screwed in a normal year. I don't know the answer to how do you know which to believe. Sometimes like earlier this week, it's because the pattern is so complicated it's hard to see it evolving like the more wrapped up model or ensemble grouping is saying. This time, I'm not sure which group to believe so I'll probably end up being gutless when I write my discussion tomorrow unless all the models jump one way. Even then I think I'll mention the possibility of the low tracking into the Oh Valley.. Some of the members have had that solution from teh get go, they have been in the minority and still might be but they have trended towards papa. The changes to the euro ensemble mean is a little more troubling. The proble is this pattern is good for a storm but exactly how the storm evolves will be determined by stuff that is not easily resolved by the models when the impulse is still in the Pacific. The differences between a track just to our south and one into he OH valley isn't really that much. I guess I'm not telling you anything you don't know. Below is more complete look at the gfs ensembles than can be found on the eyewall site.

http://www.atmos.alb...plots/F132.html

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They have been varying quite a bit, one think about esnemble in the real long ranges is there often is more spread than forecast by the models. That's why usually even if every model known to man has snow on a day 5 forecast, it's usually wise not to go much above 50 percent chance of snow and in DC, it's usually not even wise to only mention snow as its so easy for us to get screwed in a normal year. I don't know the answer to how do you know which to believe. Sometimes like earlier this week, it's because the pattern is so complicated it's hard to see it evolving like the more wrapped up model or ensemble grouping is saying. This time, I'm not sure which group to believe so I'll probably end up being gutless when I write my discussion tomorrow unless all the models jump one way. Even then I think I'll mention the possibility of the low tracking into the Oh Valley.. Some of the members have had that solution from teh get go, they have been in the minority and still might be but they have trended towards papa. The changes to the euro ensemble mean is a little more troubling. The proble is this pattern is good for a storm but exactly how the storm evolves will be determined by stuff that is not easily resolved by the models when the impulse is still in the Pacific. The differences between a track just to our south and one into he OH valley isn't really that. I guess I'm not telling you anything you don't know. Below is more complete look at the gfs ensembles than can be found on the eyewall site.

http://www.atmos.alb...plots/F132.html

After looking at the GFS 18z, I was worried about an OV track and warm air. After looking at those ens. images, I think now I'm more worried about it being weaker and sliding to our south with little fanfare in this neck of the woods.

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How often do models give us snow for 8 days then it snows? We should be smarter than this by now. ;)

We should be. We're gonna get precip and it will be cold to start. That's about all we know and may be all we know for awhile. I do get worried when something start going wrong during a nina, especially the track but most ninas don't have such a strong neg nao. I think my semi-hot streak might end.

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