aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 it's not a bad snow around here if it verifies yeoman>who cares<yeoman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yeoman>who cares<yeoman damn straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 damn straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How is the UKMET the second most accurate model? All I ever see it do is flip-flop every 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How is the UKMET the second most accurate model? All I ever see it do is flip-flop every 12 hours. I was just thinking the same thing. Saw a thread a couple weeks ago that said it was the 2nd best model. It has been AWFUL so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How is the UKMET the second most accurate model? All I ever see it do is flip-flop every 12 hours. I "think" they grade it using an average deviation from the actual 500mb map or something along those lines hence, it doesn't necessarily mean that its always the best at forecasting actual wx at a particular location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NWS starting to believe? Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gfs still pretty sweet but gotta be careful i think... could be close. SNE looks golden.. sorry, gotta root for them on this one. you northern spy! you're going up there for the holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Is there a scenario where DC/BWI could still be the jackpot for this storm? Would the phase have to happen faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Is there a scenario where DC/BWI could still be the jackpot for this storm? Would the phase have to happen faster? honestly, everything is on the table right now no one will know anything with certainty until Thursday and even then, it can fall apart as it did in many parts of VA forecasted to get 3-5"+ last week w/in 12 hours before the event and ended up with 1-2", including mixed precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 it's not a bad snow around here if it verifies It it's vort and low is right, the qppf is probably a little low for dca. At least that's what it looks liek to me. Taht said, who cares either way at this point, It's way too early to worry about amounts. The good news is that the models seem to be in lock step for us to get at least more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I want a shovelable snowfall christmas eve. Is that too much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Hm's fish storm... With the amount of ridging forecasted over the Rockies, this would likely strengthen quickly and come up the coast. That's why I'm excited that alot of the "consensus" now takes it to the south. There's a better chance of it screwing us by amping and taking the ULLs to the NW of us than too far south and out to sea. This one might end up in our wheel house as we get closer to the event and the Western Atlantic low is a bit weaker and is actuality positioned a bit further to the north as seems to always be the case compared to what guidance indicates at day 5. It's a positive for most of the coast, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just so people can get a D.C. winter into perspective: AT DCA Month-to-date snowfall: 1.7" Average snowfall: Nov: 0.8" Dec: 2.9" Jan: 5.5" Feb: 5.1" Mar: 2.3" Yearly snowfall: 16.6" If we got 4" from this weekend's system we would be 2.8" above normal (almost double) for December. We would have just over a third of our yearly snowfall. (source: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/snowfall.html ...last updated August 2008) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THE IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE THIS FEATURE...ALBEIT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND EMERGING JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. -- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just so people can get a D.C. winter into perspective: AT DCA Month-to-date snowfall: 1.7" Average snowfall: Nov: 0.8" Dec: 2.9" Jan: 5.5" Feb: 5.1" Mar: 2.3" Yearly snowfall: 16.6" If we got 4" from this weekend's system we would be 2.8" above normal (almost double) for December. We would have just over a third of our yearly snowfall. (source: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa...d/snowfall.html ...last updated August 2008) If DCA were to get 4" from this, it's likely that other localities in this area would get 5-7". In that scenario, it would be an impressive accomplishment in a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 144hr. JMA south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 144hr. JMA south as well Every model brings precip into the dc area...I guess I don't know about the UKMET but maybe that one too....can't say I hate that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like the bad weenie models are south. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 based on 5H, JMA would shift all that precip east/NE through us, so we'd still get measurable snow; how much? who knows as the model only goes out to 144 hrs JMA is almost 24 hours slower than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like the bad weenie models are south. No big deal. euro is south also from its 0z run. You classify that a bad weenie model??????????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 based on 5H, JMA would shift all that precip east/NE through us, so we'd still get measurable snow; how much? who knows as the model only goes out to 144 hrs JMA is almost 24 hours slower than GFS 12z JMA is RIC special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 euro is south also from its 0z run. You classify that a bad weenie model??????????????? I am pretty sure this isn't true, boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Oh lord now we are going to get people thinking others are trying to steal their snow.....ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Oh lord now we are going to get people thinking others are trying to steal their snow.....ugh im always up for stealing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z JMA is RIC special How often is the JMA right DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z JMA is RIC special Was it difficult to type that Dave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Was it difficult to type that Dave? it was hard posting the map, the map that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I see some weenies are hanging on HM crapping on this threat. Hope they enjoy his New Year storm. I think sometimes they forget that HM gets excited and hypes monster bombs that drive into the Lakes and give us rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I see some weenies are hanging on HM crapping on this threat. Hope they enjoy his New Year storm. I think sometimes they forget that HM gets excited and hypes monster bombs that drive into the Lakes and give us rain... I wonder why he is being negative about it so much? Seems like he thinks many of us are predicting a big snow when in fact most of us are thinking a nice 2-4 or 3-6 event. I suppose there are a few people who don't know that a miller b screws us mostly for big snows...I appreciate him reminding us of that I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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