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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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How is the UKMET the second most accurate model? All I ever see it do is flip-flop every 12 hours.

I "think" they grade it using an average deviation from the actual 500mb map or something along those lines

hence, it doesn't necessarily mean that its always the best at forecasting actual wx at a particular location

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NWS starting to believe?

Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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Is there a scenario where DC/BWI could still be the jackpot for this storm? Would the phase have to happen faster?

honestly, everything is on the table right now

no one will know anything with certainty until Thursday

and even then, it can fall apart as it did in many parts of VA forecasted to get 3-5"+ last week w/in 12 hours before the event and ended up with 1-2", including mixed precip

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it's not a bad snow around here if it verifies

It it's vort and low is right, the qppf is probably a little low for dca. At least that's what it looks liek to me. Taht said, who cares either way at this point, It's way too early to worry about amounts. The good news is that the models seem to be in lock step for us to get at least more than an inch.

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Hm's fish storm...

With the amount of ridging forecasted over the Rockies, this would likely strengthen quickly and come up the coast. That's why I'm excited that alot of the "consensus" now takes it to the south. There's a better chance of it screwing us by amping and taking the ULLs to the NW of us than too far south and out to sea.

This one might end up in our wheel house as we get closer to the event and the Western Atlantic low is a bit weaker and is actuality positioned a bit further to the north as seems to always be the case compared to what guidance indicates at day 5.

It's a positive for most of the coast, IMO.

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Just so people can get a D.C. winter into perspective:

AT DCA

Month-to-date snowfall: 1.7"

Average snowfall:

Nov: 0.8"

Dec: 2.9"

Jan: 5.5"

Feb: 5.1"

Mar: 2.3"

Yearly snowfall: 16.6"

If we got 4" from this weekend's system we would be 2.8" above normal (almost double) for December. We would have just over a third of our yearly snowfall.

(source: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/snowfall.html ...last updated August 2008)

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LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THE IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO

SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE THIS FEATURE...ALBEIT THERE ARE

STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER

AND STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE A LOW

PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND EMERGING

JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

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Just so people can get a D.C. winter into perspective:

AT DCA

Month-to-date snowfall: 1.7"

Average snowfall:

Nov: 0.8"

Dec: 2.9"

Jan: 5.5"

Feb: 5.1"

Mar: 2.3"

Yearly snowfall: 16.6"

If we got 4" from this weekend's system we would be 2.8" above normal (almost double) for December. We would have just over a third of our yearly snowfall.

(source: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa...d/snowfall.html ...last updated August 2008)

If DCA were to get 4" from this, it's likely that other localities in this area would get 5-7". :whistle:

In that scenario, it would be an impressive accomplishment in a Nina.

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Guest someguy

based on 5H, JMA would shift all that precip east/NE through us, so we'd still get measurable snow; how much? who knows as the model only goes out to 144 hrs

JMA is almost 24 hours slower than GFS

12z JMA is RIC special

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I see some weenies are hanging on HM crapping on this threat. Hope they enjoy his New Year storm. I think sometimes they forget that HM gets excited and hypes monster bombs that drive into the Lakes and give us rain...

I wonder why he is being negative about it so much? Seems like he thinks many of us are predicting a big snow when in fact most of us are thinking a nice 2-4 or 3-6 event. I suppose there are a few people who don't know that a miller b screws us mostly for big snows...I appreciate him reminding us of that I guess.

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