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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

00Z RUNS OF GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A BLOCKED PATTERN

DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OFF

THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW THROUGH

THIS PERIOD KEEPS THE MID ATLANTIC OVER 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR

MAX TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY

WITH CLOUDS CLEARED OUT AND MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 40F...THOUGH A

SUPPLEMENTAL SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR

UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST...AND COOLER TEMPERATES THURSDAY.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND

UPPER MID WEST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH PERHAPS CHRISTMAS DAY

CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH

HAVE A SOLUTION LIKE THIS...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER. GIVEN SOME

MODEL CONSISTENCY IN DEVELOPMENT LIKE THIS...CONTINUED POPS HIGHER

CHANCES POPS FOR SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.

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Euro and GFS in lockstep for several runs is a very good thing. Beware of folks wishcasting this storm away because they have to fly to grandma's or because they don't get much snow from it.

The other week, well before this threat even came into existence, I was talking with my parents up in Philly. Making plans to drive up there from DC for Christmas, etc. I jokingly said (quite literally), "we'll be there, barring something ridiculous like a major snowstorm which we know will never happen, ha ha ha!"

Not saying the storm will happen at this point, but if it does and indications later this week look like something major and travel-inhibiting, I'll have to call them back and mention that I did joke about it a couple of weeks before! But I'll still enjoy having a big snowstorm for Christmas even if it cancels my travel plans! :)

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Beware of folks wishcasting this storm away because they have to fly to grandma's or because they don't get much snow from it.

As long as I can safely drive 70 miles north to the in-laws on Christmas Eve, then another 120 miles northwest on Christmas Morning...it can snow all it wants wherever I am.

That and it can't delay my flight to Florida on NYE :)

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I'd be a bit worried we have a warm nose and are sleeting at this point. I'd like to see future runs nudge it back south some.

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I'm not worried at all but I know the usual suspects will now take what is the fun part and crap all over it. Who cares if there is a warm nose or if we sleet...I don't. It's 5 days out and showing a good snow for a lot of people and as far as we know we should worry about no storm happening at all as much as. a warm nose. But that is just my opinion...I won't have much time after today to model watch.

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I'm not worried at all but I know the usual suspects will now take what is the fun part and crap all over it. Who cares if there is a warm nose or if we sleet...I don't. It's 5 days out and showing a good snow for a lot of people and as far as we know we should worry about no storm happening at all as much as. a warm nose. But that is just my opinion...I won't have much time after today to model watch.

The usual suspects will flip out over soundings for the rest of the week.

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I'm not worried at all but I know the usual suspects will now take what is the fun part and crap all over it. Who cares if there is a warm nose or if we sleet...I don't. It's 5 days out and showing a good snow for a lot of people and as far as we know we should worry about no storm happening at all as much as. a warm nose. But that is just my opinion...I won't have much time after today to model watch.

I concur. It seems like with all of the available guidance, we should see at least a healthy period of snow from this one... even if it does end up in the OV or a weak wave to the south.

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The GFS was too far north and west with today's non-event at 140 hours. However, in that case there was no strong closed 850 mb low. This looks like a very strong 850 closed low, which always raises the red flag of a northwest trend, IMHO. We don't have much room for any northwest trend at this point, at least here in DC. I guess if it tracks up the ohio valley, there would probably be enough cold air east of the mountains for front end snow/ice, however, so I'm thinking we'll get something out of this either way. It will be interesting to watch it evolve over the next few days. Certainly more consistency on the models with this one than the last modeled east coast storm though. At this point I'm cautiously optimistic and hoping for a slight southeast trend at the 850 level.

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