ThePhotoGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A BLOCKED PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD KEEPS THE MID ATLANTIC OVER 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARED OUT AND MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 40F...THOUGH A SUPPLEMENTAL SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST...AND COOLER TEMPERATES THURSDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH PERHAPS CHRISTMAS DAY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE A SOLUTION LIKE THIS...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER. GIVEN SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY IN DEVELOPMENT LIKE THIS...CONTINUED POPS HIGHER CHANCES POPS FOR SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Euro and GFS in lockstep for several runs is a very good thing. Beware of folks wishcasting this storm away because they have to fly to grandma's or because they don't get much snow from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Euro and GFS in lockstep for several runs is a very good thing. Beware of folks wishcasting this storm away because they have to fly to grandma's or because they don't get much snow from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Anyone have the precip totals for 00Z Euro for BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Euro and GFS in lockstep for several runs is a very good thing. Beware of folks wishcasting this storm away because they have to fly to grandma's or because they don't get much snow from it. You mean Ian and Ellinwood.....oops...did I just say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Euro and GFS in lockstep for several runs is a very good thing. Beware of folks wishcasting this storm away because they have to fly to grandma's or because they don't get much snow from it. The other week, well before this threat even came into existence, I was talking with my parents up in Philly. Making plans to drive up there from DC for Christmas, etc. I jokingly said (quite literally), "we'll be there, barring something ridiculous like a major snowstorm which we know will never happen, ha ha ha!" Not saying the storm will happen at this point, but if it does and indications later this week look like something major and travel-inhibiting, I'll have to call them back and mention that I did joke about it a couple of weeks before! But I'll still enjoy having a big snowstorm for Christmas even if it cancels my travel plans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Anyone have the precip totals for 00Z Euro for BWI? .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Beware of folks wishcasting this storm away because they have to fly to grandma's or because they don't get much snow from it. As long as I can safely drive 70 miles north to the in-laws on Christmas Eve, then another 120 miles northwest on Christmas Morning...it can snow all it wants wherever I am. That and it can't delay my flight to Florida on NYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 One of the Day 8 analogs from yesterday was 01/06/1996. can someone post the link to the super ensembles? greatly appreciated, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 weekend rule FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I guess I don't have to tell you all that JB is all over the Christmas storm no totals yet, but he believes it is the real deal as many other mets have said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 can someone post the link to the super ensembles? greatly appreciated, thanks http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How does the track of the low compare to previous runs as it moves from tennessee through north carolina. Any noticeable shift north or south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 http://www.cpc.noaa....el_guidance.php thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 And now the worrying begins.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 And now the worrying begins.... I'd be a bit worried we have a warm nose and are sleeting at this point. I'd like to see future runs nudge it back south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'd be a bit worried we have a warm nose and are sleeting at this point. I'd like to see future runs nudge it back south some. I'm not worried at all but I know the usual suspects will now take what is the fun part and crap all over it. Who cares if there is a warm nose or if we sleet...I don't. It's 5 days out and showing a good snow for a lot of people and as far as we know we should worry about no storm happening at all as much as. a warm nose. But that is just my opinion...I won't have much time after today to model watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Now the models need to hold serve for 140 hours - anybody want to set some odds on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Hey Mitch, I see some ptype issues S&E of I-95, e.g., RIC and points S&E. In spite of decent set-up, my excitement level remains neutral until Wed PM runs. JB hypes almost everything. Wonder how many hours this board collectively invested ("wasted"?) for today's non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Actually I think everybody in here wouldnt mind if it drifted south somewhat! Now the models need to hold serve for 140 hours - anybody want to set some odds on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm not worried at all but I know the usual suspects will now take what is the fun part and crap all over it. Who cares if there is a warm nose or if we sleet...I don't. It's 5 days out and showing a good snow for a lot of people and as far as we know we should worry about no storm happening at all as much as. a warm nose. But that is just my opinion...I won't have much time after today to model watch. The usual suspects will flip out over soundings for the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 OMG the 0z GFS showed 1.25" qpf for here and the 12z only shows .83!!!! Terrible trend....and it's mostly sleet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm not worried at all but I know the usual suspects will now take what is the fun part and crap all over it. Who cares if there is a warm nose or if we sleet...I don't. It's 5 days out and showing a good snow for a lot of people and as far as we know we should worry about no storm happening at all as much as. a warm nose. But that is just my opinion...I won't have much time after today to model watch. I concur. It seems like with all of the available guidance, we should see at least a healthy period of snow from this one... even if it does end up in the OV or a weak wave to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The usual suspects will flip out over soundings for the rest of the week. I guess I'm one of those suspects.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I guess I'm one of those suspects.... When this week will it be safe to think about giving the bus a tune up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I guess I'm one of those suspects.... Eh, I tend to not worry about that stuff until much closer in. Some people here will spend the next 150 hours freaking out about phantom warm noses from off-hour GFS runs. When a storm locks in the track and QPF, people need something else to worry about, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 When this week will it be safe to think about giving the bus a tune up? 12z runs Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I guess I'm one of those suspects.... Not you....you're more of an UNusual suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GFS was too far north and west with today's non-event at 140 hours. However, in that case there was no strong closed 850 mb low. This looks like a very strong 850 closed low, which always raises the red flag of a northwest trend, IMHO. We don't have much room for any northwest trend at this point, at least here in DC. I guess if it tracks up the ohio valley, there would probably be enough cold air east of the mountains for front end snow/ice, however, so I'm thinking we'll get something out of this either way. It will be interesting to watch it evolve over the next few days. Certainly more consistency on the models with this one than the last modeled east coast storm though. At this point I'm cautiously optimistic and hoping for a slight southeast trend at the 850 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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