Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Sure we can toss it out. Heck, we can toss the vast majority of solutions that came out over the last week. The million dollar question is did init errors cause an impossible solution? For $1 million the answer is.........yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Anyone more edumacated than me want to chime in on how the radar and/or water vapor loop and possibly other obs are stacking up? Whether it looks good or bad for us doesn't really matter - just curious as to how it looks compared to model guidance and what someone's interprtetation of that might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18Z Ruc Initialization and then end result FWIW, if anything. That's quite a potent vort heading south in the northern plains. I guess yesterday it just wasn't in good sampling region. Out to 18 hours, it heads almost due south through Eastern KS and OK/AR. It would likely yield a good solution for the east coast. Need the trof axis parallel to lake Michigan with the H5/H7 low closing off SW of the region to have a good solution for us, for those looking and studying the 18Z and 0Z runs upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Anyone more edumacated than me want to chime in on how the radar and/or water vapor loop and possibly other obs are stacking up? Whether it looks good or bad for us doesn't really matter - just curious as to how it looks compared to model guidance and what someone's interprtetation of that might be. I'm impressed with the MCL in Texas... cant wait to see when it hits the gulf coast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm impressed with the MCL in Texas... cant wait to see when it hits the gulf coast tonight. Me too. Following this storm has got me looking for things I've never looked at before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's gonna blizzard!!! Just not with this storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Following this storm has got me looking for other things to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's gonna blizzard!!! Just not with this storm.. Got any Storm in mind Ian? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is all quite stoopit. Go to bed tonight, do the Christmas thing tomorrow, and look out your window starting tomorrow evening. If it's snowing, then we know it'll snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's gonna blizzard!!! Just not with this storm winter.. fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is all quite stoopit. Go to bed tonight, do the Christmas thing tomorrow, and look out your window starting tomorrow evening. If it's snowing, then we know it'll snow. I wish it were that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is all quite stoopit. Go to bed tonight, do the Christmas thing tomorrow, and look out your window starting tomorrow evening. If it's snowing, then we know it'll snow. This post only applies to people who are not members of this board and don't live on the EC. For the rest of us......another 36 hours of hitting F5 every 2 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 My F5 key is easily identifiable....it's the blank key....printing wore off. There is a handy firefox addon called ReloadEvery. It will automatically refresh the page(s) at a given interval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 My F5 key is easily identifiable....it's the blank key....printing wore off. There is a handy firefox addon called ReloadEvery. It will automatically refresh the page(s) at a given interval. I prefer pressing ctrl and r. Pressing two keys makes me feel like a more active participant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I was bold and stayed with snow this morning. Then upped it with the GFS. See my fb posts and models More models coming on line with precip now for MD. I went 70% chance for Salisbury and Ocean City to get over 6" on Sunday. 2-4 + for Baltimore Sunday afternoon and overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So... 12Z GFS on target and leading the pack or bad data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolina23 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I was bold and stayed with snow this morning. Then upped it with the GFS. See my fb posts and models More models coming on line with precip now for MD. I went 70% chance for Salisbury and Ocean City to get over 6" on Sunday. 2-4 + for Baltimore Sunday afternoon and overnight Good luck with your call.. Hopefully with get at least a couple of inches here in Baltimore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 OMG THE 18Z GFS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE OMG WOWOWOWOWOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So... 12Z GFS on target and leading the pack or bad data? If the MA gets snow, it must be "initialization errors". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z GFS is a big bag of WTF... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z GFS is a big bag of WTF... wow I'll echo that. Dude, are you staying up for 0z...I'm assuming you are. This is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'll echo that. Dude, are you staying up for 0z...I'm assuming you are. This is insane. Yes it is insane. And most certainly I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yes it is insane. And most certainly I am Pop me a text message later on. At some point I'll obviously have to stray from the computer. Let me know about the 21z SREFs you're my source on those. I don't check them much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Maybe those folks touting Jan 2000 are going to turn out right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The substitute caster for Topper on Washington Channel 9, who is pretty good, started off the 5 o.k. clock news saying maybe an inch in DC, but 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 on Eastern Shore. He then come back on, apparently after seeing the GFS, saying his estimates on Eastern Shore "may be doubled" and jury is still out west of the Bay. He then cautioned "a few more model runs to go" so everyone should stay aware but don't assume one way or another. he did a very good job of laying everything out. Unlike Channel 7, which just said "out to sea" and didn't even hint at snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Pop me a text message later on. At some point I'll obviously have to stray from the computer. Let me know about the 21z SREFs you're my source on those. I don't check them much. Okay. Those come out around 830 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The substitute caster for Topper on Washington Channel 9, who is pretty good, started off the 5 o.k. clock news saying maybe an inch in DC, but 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 on Eastern Shore. He then come back on, apparently after seeing the GFS, saying his estimates on Eastern Shore "may be doubled" and jury is still out west of the Bay. He then cautioned "a few more model runs to go" so everyone should stay aware but don't assume one way or another. he did a very good job of laying everything out. Unlike Channel 7, which just said "out to sea" and didn't even hint at snow Howard Berstein said this: "Howard says: "Eastern Shore looks to get it big. Still could miss us. Let's see some other models get on board." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Maybe those folks touting Jan 2000 are going to turn out right After every f'd up model run the past few days, I just say "January 25, 2000, January 25, 2000, January 25, 2000.............. I am not giving up on this until the bitter end.... Also, I have resisted prepping my snowblower, and so far we its worked. After all those consecutive EURO runs of epic blizzard, I was just about to gas it up and change the oil, but then the EURO Shat the bed.....Snowblower prep on hold..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I hope this is for realz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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