weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I already told family that the snow threat for Northern MD was over so I need that to verify now to maintain reliability. Whatever we say the opposite happens. Let's say it will be super sunny for the weekend, maybe well get the storm after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hr 54-72 shows some white vacation homes on ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Gfs had a great run. Not for us really, but for NYC area. And slightly closer to us... Dare I say the trend is our friend again? I guess we gotta wait another run for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 ATTENTION FORUM PEOPLE- COME BACK COME BACK WE MIGHT HAVE A SEMBLANCE OF HOPE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You mean the deep sea fisherman? ATTENTION FORUM PEOPLE- COME BACK COME BACK WE MIGHT HAVE A SEMBLANCE OF HOPE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Actually the precip has trended west for two straight runs now... at 12z, Ocean City, MD was in the <.10 precip, then at 18z it was on the .25 line and now it appears to be inside the .5 line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Welcome to bizzaro world...merry fishmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If euro trends west, were in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 People must be taking crazy pills!!! All aboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Euro to 36 looks better. Heights on ec better, slightly better n stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 that 500 mb closed low is trending south and slightly west on these runs. Not sure how much more the models will correct at this point, but they sure are trying. A hope and a prayer that tomorrow brings good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 euro basically same result.. models are pretty locked in. you might be slated to get a flurry and get two flurries. the coastline may pick up some accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The last couple of days...I might as well have thrown a slice of Bologna at the ceiling to see if it sticks (*Oscar Mayer Model). And when that didn't work ...I should have just made a sandwich with a few flakes, a potato roll and some mustard....I don't need that fancy European sh*t. *Oscar Mayer is an American meat and cold cut production company, owned by Kraft Foods, known for its hot dogs, bologna, bacon and Lunchables products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 euro basically same result.. models are pretty locked in. you might be slated to get a flurry and get two flurries. the coastline may pick up some accum. I actually see 3 flurries so your forecast may bust. Too bad it comes down to this. Still a pretty strong storm tracking up the coast but the devil is in the details. With this particular system I don't buy the "Nina" climo argument. The origination and evolution of this storn is absolutely not Nina style. Wolf Creek ski area in S CO got 93" of snow from this storm. That has never happened in a Nina not to mention S CA got record rain and that is totally un-Nina like. The ingredients were all on the table to get a big EC storm but the timing was off. This was not cause by Nina climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We need a way to break this chain of "wash rinse repeat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Taylor, Imma let you finish, BUT THE GFS SHOWS A STORM AGAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GFS put Richmond back in the game...don't think MBY in Rockville is gonna see more than flurries still though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GFS put Richmond back in the game...don't think MBY in Rockville is gonna see more than flurries still though Storm cancel cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GFS put Richmond back in the game...don't think MBY in Rockville is gonna see more than flurries still though 12z gfs gives us all at least wwa snows, very very small shift west and we are all looking at warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Need some Christmas Cheer. Go to the 12Z thread in general weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Need some Christmas Cheer. Go to the 12Z thread in general weather forum. Or the NYC Philly thread! I'm actually surprised this board isn't more lit up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GFS put Richmond back in the game...don't think MBY in Rockville is gonna see more than flurries still though I'm not saying the 12Z GFS is right, but the strength, position, and track of the low off NC would argue for a larger precip sheild to the NW than what is modeled. We shouldn't read into the modeled QPF too much right now. IF the GFS verifies (which is very difficult to wrap my head around given what has transpired) it is not at all unlikely that areas W of DC could see more than 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HPC has said that there were intialization errors in the GFS and to toss it out. Normalcy resumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HPC has said that there were intialization errors in the GFS and to toss it out. Normalcy resumed. Sure we can toss it out. Heck, we can toss the vast majority of solutions that came out over the last week. The million dollar question is did init errors cause an impossible solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HPC has said that there were intialization errors in the GFS and to toss it out. Normalcy resumed. We will see... The ensembles are backing it up.. And not necessary to assume the error takes it west. The setup is there, euro will be real interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 JMA will save us. I was very invested in this storm a few days ago, but the rollercoaster has been a bit much. Now I'm just sitting back to see the outcome. If it happens, it happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well, this has to be one of the most unique storms from a modeling and forecasting standpoint imaginable. It almost as if it has been scripted. This rollercoaster ride has not been fun. I'm starting to think a map, a few pushpins, and a blindfold would do just about as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Lol.....so much for the GFS tease. The 12z Euro is a complete whiff(even up north). I think from now on, I'll get my weather forecasts the old fashioned way----410-936-1212. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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