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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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The last couple of days...I might as well have thrown a slice of Bologna at the ceiling to see if it sticks (*Oscar Mayer Model). And when that didn't work ...I should have just made a sandwich with a few flakes, a potato roll and some mustard....I don't need that fancy European sh*t.

*Oscar Mayer is an American meat and cold cut production company, owned by Kraft Foods, known for its hot dogs, bologna, bacon and Lunchables products.

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euro basically same result.. models are pretty locked in. you might be slated to get a flurry and get two flurries. the coastline may pick up some accum.

I actually see 3 flurries so your forecast may bust.

Too bad it comes down to this. Still a pretty strong storm tracking up the coast but the devil is in the details. With this particular system I don't buy the "Nina" climo argument. The origination and evolution of this storn is absolutely not Nina style. Wolf Creek ski area in S CO got 93" of snow from this storm. That has never happened in a Nina not to mention S CA got record rain and that is totally un-Nina like.

The ingredients were all on the table to get a big EC storm but the timing was off. This was not cause by Nina climo.

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12z GFS put Richmond back in the game...don't think MBY in Rockville is gonna see more than flurries still though

I'm not saying the 12Z GFS is right, but the strength, position, and track of the low off NC would argue for a larger precip sheild to the NW than what is modeled. We shouldn't read into the modeled QPF too much right now.

IF the GFS verifies (which is very difficult to wrap my head around given what has transpired) it is not at all unlikely that areas W of DC could see more than 3".

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