Christmas/Post Christmas Threat

[Ian]

5 of 12 GFS 12z ensembles give DC .10 to.50 qpf, if I read them correctly. Five out of twelve ain't bad. Forget the Euro.

i dunno.. the op euro and op gfs are not that far off eachother at this pt

[easternsnowman]

Kudos to the GFS and American models if this holds. They told the Euro to go eff itself and its consistency. People sh*t on the GFS far too much around here. Tell me you weren't unnerved that the GFS didn't have this even when the Euro did for multiple runs.

I.ve said all along the euro is very overrated.

[CheesyPoofs]

Tell me you weren't unnerved that the GFS didn't have this even when the Euro did for multiple runs.

There were two points during this mess when I wasn't: When the GGEM and Euro both showed a a significant hit (I think it was the 0z suite Tuesday? I've lost track...it seems like we've been following this forever ) and yesterday when it appeared as if the 12z GFS made a big, big, step towards the Euro. Otherwise, yeah, I was worried that the Euro was all alone, especially in light of the hiccup run we witnessed with the 12/19 debacle.

[needbiggerboat]

5 of 12 GFS 12z ensembles give DC .10 to.50 qpf, if I read them correctly. Five out of twelve ain't bad. Forget the Euro.

actually these 5 are .25-.5, with 3 either in or on the fringe of .5+....and of course a few members shoot relative blanks.

for all the bridge jumping, there is enough probability to keep tracking this for a few more runs....sort of ironic that some are closing the door on this due to 12z euro.

[Bob Chill]

Well, I guess we can hope for a better phase and larger precip shield to give us flurries to an inch. Even though the solutions suck for us, at least the storm is modeled to be relatively strong and close enough to weenie watch the radar.

[Wonderdog]

This will be truly disappointing if things work out as they appear they will. The Euro was an outlier the whole time. And in light of the extreme solution it depicted, we all should have been very skeptical but the little boy in me wanted a HECS. A 100 mile correction in the next two days would put DC into a shoveable situation. But I will be following the GFS on this storm, not the bloody Euro.

[Ian]

actually these 5 are .25-.5, with 3 either in or on the fringe of .5+....and of course a few members shoot relative blanks.

for all the bridge jumping, there is enough probability to keep tracking this for a few more runs....sort of ironic that some are closing the door on this due to 12z euro.

the euro is still a good model.. it's caught on now probably. when there is less spread in the ops the ens are still useful but maybe not as critical?

[J.Mike]

The HATE is on for the EURO, until the next potential storm where the GFS show a monster HECS, the EURO shows OTS, and within 72 hrs, the GFS follows the EURO's lead.

Wash/Rinse/Repeat this back 'n forth scenario for the rest of the winter.

[weatherwonder]

Kudos to the GFS and American models if this holds. They told the Euro to go eff itself and its consistency. People sh*t on the GFS far too much around here. Tell me you weren't unnerved that the GFS didn't have this even when the Euro did for multiple runs.

And to all the newbies out there- this doesn't mean that the GFS rules. So, next time, if the GFS says we get snow, don't hug that model.

As others have said from time to time on this board - Meteorology is more than just looking at and interpreting models-

The funny thing is, when all is said and done, us weenies will get excited about a fantasy storm way off in model land...

Right now I want to take the Euro to Misfit Island

[Kevin Druff]

For me, I definitely got sucked in by the Euro. Looking back, I think the reason I got sucked in is because it felt like we were getting closer to the onset of precipitation. We all "know" the GFS has a south and east bias, we watched it at work last year and then, to a lesser degree, the first overrunning this year, so we expected the GFS to come into line with the Euro.

Typically, when run after run after run shows the same solution, your confidence increases because you're getting closer to onset and have better sampling. However, looking back, we really WERE NOT ANY CLOSER TO THE EVENT on the last "big" hit by the Euro than on the first as it kept delaying and delaying and delaying and we did not have better sampling.

Merry Christmas, ya'll.

[real]

The Bright Side:

It's only December 23. Most other years, we wouldn't even have been given the opportunity to be sucked in by a potential major storm this early in season, not to mention two in the past 10 days.

Still, part of me wishes the pattern would just break down now and hope for it to return in mid to late January/February and try our luck then.

Trying to somewhat look on bright side here, but could you image how much worse we all would felt if we were following this threat during a snowless winter in say late Feb. or early March and then have this happen.

It would have been a death blow, cause we all would know there wouldn't be another chance. We can't say that this time.

[tacoman25]

For me, I definitely got sucked in by the Euro. Looking back, I think the reason I got sucked in is because it felt like we were getting closer to the onset of precipitation. We all "know" the GFS has a south and east bias, we watched it at work last year and then, to a lesser degree, the first overrunning this year, so we expected the GFS to come into line with the Euro.

Typically, when run after run after run shows the same solution, your confidence increases because you're getting closer to onset and have better sampling. However, looking back, we really WERE NOT ANY CLOSER TO THE EVENT on the last "big" hit by the Euro than on the first as it kept delaying and delaying and delaying and we did not have better sampling.

Merry Christmas, ya'll.

I think that has really improved over the last couple upgrades, though. Something to keep in mind for future tracking.

[Ian]

gfs is a good model imo. i really only look at the nam/gfs 80-90% of the time and the euro in winter or during a "special" (i.e., uber summer ridge) event.

[Dr No]

We can all track the wind for late Sunday into Monday.

Since the blizzard scenario is off the table... Two plausible things to look for on the next days worth of guidance runs:

1) An earlier phase in the Plains... that would mean a light snow event in here on WAA Saturday night and Sunday AM. (maybe the best chance of seeing anything?)

2) A little bit of a western shift from the GFS/Euro Ensemble mean position. I don't think more that 75 miles would get some snow back here. That correlates well with the upper support being stronger, aiding in snowfall. 5/12 GFS members are a decent DC snow.

[aldie 22]

We can all track the wind for late Sunday into Monday.

Since the blizzard scenario is off the table... Two plausible things to look for on the next days worth of guidance runs:

1) An earlier phase in the Plains... that would mean a light snow event in here on WAA Saturday night and Sunday AM. (maybe the best chance of seeing anything?)

2) A little bit of a western shift from the GFS/Euro Ensemble mean position. I don't think more that 75 miles would get some snow back here. That correlates well with the upper support being stronger, aiding in snowfall. 5/12 GFS members are a decent DC snow.

How about tracking the wind today...geez this is crazy

[Ian]

We can all track the wind for late Sunday into Monday.

Since the blizzard scenario is off the table... Two plausible things to look for on the next days worth of guidance runs:

1) An earlier phase in the Plains... that would mean a light snow event in here on WAA Saturday night and Sunday AM. (maybe the best chance of seeing anything?)

2) A little bit of a western shift from the GFS/Euro Ensemble mean position. I don't think more that 75 miles would get some snow back here. That correlates well with the upper support being stronger, aiding in snowfall. 5/12 GFS members are a decent DC snow.

i think 1 or at least the idea of 1 is the only chance.. 2 seems continually less likely

[Fozz]

I'm now rooting for SNE to get slammed......I hold no envy and this storm needs to impact someone.

[Ian]

I'm now rooting for SNE to get slammed......I hold no envy and this storm needs to impact someone.

ill post pics

[mitchnick]

I'm now rooting for SNE to get slammed......I hold no envy and this storm needs to impact someone.

this is the umpteenth time NE was supposed to get major snows this year and nothing happened

nah, my guess at this point is the pattern holds and as we get closer to the event the qpf on the models dwindles and they get very little

just going on pattern repetition on this one

for Ian's sake, I hope they get......hmm.........a coating, and then some

[mitchnick]

Kudos to the GFS and American models if this holds. They told the Euro to go eff itself and its consistency. People sh*t on the GFS far too much around here. Tell me you weren't unnerved that the GFS didn't have this even when the Euro did for multiple runs.

don't forget the GFS had us getting 1 foot+ a week ago with the bowling ball idea

it lost it and went into oblivion

its had several different versions of the net result, the only consistency being that we got nothing

frankly, I know I'm giving the Euro an "F"

I just don't know how to grade wrong in the MR and seeming blind luck in the short run with the GFS

Frustrated Weenie

[Ian]

this is the umpteenth time NE was supposed to get major snows this year and nothing happened

nah, my guess at this point is the pattern holds and as we get closer to the event the qpf on the models dwindles and they get very little

just going on pattern repetition on this one

for Ian's sake, I hope they get......hmm.........a coating, and then some

think main show should be east but the euro/euro ens/gfs etc are pretty close to the benchmark so it could be close. it's also possible i'll leave before it starts.. i cant really get stuck anywhere, can miss mon but have to be at work on tue.

[Ian]

on another note, looks like yoda's sig will be a failure

[MidlothianWX]

How about tracking the wind today...geez this is crazy

Yeah, I almost got knocked over walking around today.

[Ji]

poor justin berk

[Sparky]

Yeah, I almost got knocked over walking around today.

My first thought early this morning when the wind suddenly kicked in was "that damn storm is going to be shunted out to sea by that damn Canadian vortex.

[Ender]

How about tracking the wind today...geez this is crazy

I didn't even notice; I was too busy counting my blessings that "my ensembles" didn't "abandon me".

[2010 extreme]

Euro is overrated. Sounds like people just pick the model they want to see their house of cards fall days later.

[weathercoins]

Euro is overrated. Sounds like people just pick the model they want to see their house of cards fall days later.

The one out of fifty times it comes through is worth the forty nine times it doesn't.

[weathercoins]

Gfs is out to 24 hours, slighty more west perhaps? Yeah, grasping at straws but well See.

[Sparky]

I already told family that the snow threat for Northern MD was over so I need that to verify now to maintain reliability.