Fozz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Weenie hopes fail again? It ain't 09-10 anymore. Enjoy your foot of snow in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I really don't think it's worth bailing yet. We are still very much in the game for at least our first Winter Storm Watch sometime Friday midday. Now, a Warning, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I really don't think it's worth bailing yet. We are still very much in the game for at least a Winter Storm Watch sometime Friday midday. Now, a Warning, I agree. GFS and ensembles shifting west and Euro with a burp run. 12Z today will look better for us. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I agree. GFS and ensembles shifting west and Euro with a burp run. 12Z today will look better for us. MDstorm Perhaps. At this point the most that I (and anyone near Baltimore) can expect is about 6 or 7 inches if there is a decent west shift of maybe 30 miles, but more likely it will be 2-4" while Philly north gets a MECS. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siesta Key Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the MA gets no snow let's just scoot the whole storm OTS to everyone can join in our misery. What a frustrating hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the MA gets no snow let's just scoot the whole storm OTS to everyone can join in our misery. What a frustrating hobby. essentially, that's what the DGEX does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, if 12z doesn't start inching back, I think we're done. Let's just get it over with early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, if 12z doesn't start inching back, I think we're done. Let's just get it over with early I agree. Atleast the Euro jumped in earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Weenie hopes fail again? It ain't 09-10 anymore. Hopefully, it will put to rest the vast superiority of the euro assuming the euro moe east is permanent. If so, then the rumbling I heard about the GFS overphasing lows here and in Europe may have validity. If so, the best game in town will be the ensembles from the various models as they have pointed towards a more out to sea look than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @ Rex go post that in the New England forum. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siesta Key Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Oh well, time to go back to watching them search for glory holes on Gold Rush Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Oh well, time to go back to watching them search for glory holes on Gold Rush Alaska. I'll refrain from the obvious Palin joke then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hopefully, it will put to rest the vast superiority of the euro assuming the euro moe east is permanent. If so, then the rumbling I heard about the GFS Euro overphasing lows here and in Europe may have validity. If so, the best game in town will be the ensembles from the various models as they have pointed towards a more out to sea look than the operational. Euro over-phasing, not GFS. Ensembles are always the best game, IMO, beyond 120hr. That is, of course, outside of exceptionally rare events. Oh yeah, this is huge bust #3 for the Euro in the 114 - 168hr time range? There was one in the start of November, then 12/5 and now 12/26. I may may that Nov one wrong, my memory isn't what it used to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, if 12z doesn't start inching back, I think we're done. Let's just get it over with early Yeah, it's over. Even with all the EURO craziness yesterday, I just couldn't get excited about this event. I am disappointed that we've wasted a month of cold and blocking. My fear is that next weekend's "event" will be an App runner, then we're essentially done until early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 LWX still sitting on the fence... AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 913 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && (snip) .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SAT...SHRTV TROF BENEATH NRN JET STREAM DIVES SE TWD MID-ATLC. 0Z MODELS HINT AT ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROF...ESPECIALLY AS VORT MAX ROTATES ACRS TROF AXIS. HAVE INCRD -SN CHCS TO ACCOUNT MODEL TRENDS. THIS NRN SHRTWV APPEARS WEAK...AND EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS MODEL PORTRAYS ONLY LIGHT QPF ACRS RGN. ECMWF...IN CONTRAST...LACKS THE TROF AXIS FURTHER W...MEANING LESS RISK OF CHRISTMAS DAY SNOW. HWVR...THIS SLOWER TRACK OF NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE WUD BRINGING BETTER CHC OF PHASING WITH THE SRN SYSTEM DEPICTED IN PRECEDING PARAGRAPH. TEMPS MAY BE AOA 32F DURG PART OF SAT...BUT THICKNESS PROFILES SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE SNOW. BY SAT NGT...LOPRES THAT DVLPD EARLIER IN THE DAY OVR NRN GULF COAST WILL HV MOVED E TO OFFSHORE SE US...THEN INTENSIFY THRU SUN AS IT MOVES N OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. GUIDANCE STILL NOT IN CONSENSUS WITH EVLN OF THIS COASTAL LOPRES...IN INTENSITY OR TRACK...THOUGH SPREAD OF SOLNS HAS NARROWED A BIT OVR LAST 12 HRS. IF THE TRACK OF SYSTEM REMAINS WELL RMNS FAR ENUF OFFSHORE...CLOSER TO GFS FORECAST...THE CWA MAY STILL LITTLE IMPACT ASIDE FROM INCRG NLY WINDS SUN/MON. HWVR...IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF...WHICH ALSO PAINTS A SLOWER MOVING AND STRONGER LOPRES SYSTEM DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASING...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD RESULT. ATTM...FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR SUN INTO ERY MON...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST HAVING THE BETTER CHCS FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE N/E OF RGN TWD NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY...DIMINISHING SNOW CHANCES FOR ALL XCPT UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHLANDS. HIPRES BUILDS IN FOR TUE/WED. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME FOR TONIGHT. VFR CONDS THRU FRI NGT...WITH NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS. CHC SN SAT THRU MON...BRINGING RISKS FOR SUB-VFR VSBY AND CIGS. BEST CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN AND MON...THOUGH FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLC SEABOARD. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Watching the 12Z WRF come in... and believe it or not: It is even slower with the southern shortwave. I've also noticed the North Atlantic retrograding Low push farther west. Clouds now into Philly and moving SW. BWI winds should reach 45 mph today. Patience in snowcasting.... we are still 3 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My fear is that next weekend's "event" will be an App runner... I don't think it'll be that far east. ...then we're essentially done until early March. I don't think this will be the case. I expected a bitter, dry December and a warm, slightly wetter, but still quite dry, Jan through the 2nd or 3rd week of Feb...then a brief cold and possibly wet period from that last week of Feb into March. That was back a couple months ago. I'm not so confident of that at all now. I think it's going to warm up, a lot, but I'm not so confident of its longevity past the 1/18 - 1/26 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I want the original over-running event that was shown like 4-5 days ago back. This phasing stuff sucks big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro can blow me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 12Z WRF kills the east coast storm, but it is leaving the southern system behind allowing the northern to take over. Hard to believe that extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If this BIG EC storm fizzles....will it still be a pattern changer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Please clear this up for me...would the EURO/GFS run at 0z give the mid atlantic any snow? I am in southern maryland about 2 miles west of the ches.bay.Just trying to get an idea for work purposes this weekend. I am a cop and would like to know. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro can blow me remember, its European, you better have a four pronger "you know what" or it won't fit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Please clear this up for me...would the EURO/GFS run at 0z give the mid atlantic any snow? I am in southern maryland about 2 miles west of the ches.bay.Just trying to get an idea for work purposes this weekend. I am a cop and would like to know. Thanks! There is a thread on the main page of the board that talks about what both the GFS and Euro showed last night. Cliff notes version - not a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro can blow me I think this should be the board's new motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We've seen this play out this way time and time again, mid Atlantic misses out while southern new England gets the brunt of the storm, climo, la nina, it's just the way it goes, I want snow very much like everyone on the board, but model trends like today are not good this close to a winter storm event . Sorry just my gut feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I refuse to give up hope until Ji cancels winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If this turns out to be the final solution, the GFS will have taken the Euro to school. GFS had just off the coast or OTS for how many runs now? And we thought something was wrong with the GFS but now it could be the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 EURO will be discounted for the rest of the season. Someone needs to get to work on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I refuse to give up hope until Ji cancels winter. If I'm not mistaken, he did this already back in Aug/Sept timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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