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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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I agree. GFS and ensembles shifting west and Euro with a burp run. 12Z today will look better for us.

MDstorm

Perhaps. At this point the most that I (and anyone near Baltimore) can expect is about 6 or 7 inches if there is a decent west shift of maybe 30 miles, but more likely it will be 2-4" while Philly north gets a MECS. It is what it is.

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Weenie hopes fail again? It ain't 09-10 anymore.

Hopefully, it will put to rest the vast superiority of the euro assuming the euro moe east is permanent. If so, then the rumbling I heard about the GFS overphasing lows here and in Europe may have validity. If so, the best game in town will be the ensembles from the various models as they have pointed towards a more out to sea look than the operational.

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Hopefully, it will put to rest the vast superiority of the euro assuming the euro moe east is permanent. If so, then the rumbling I heard about the GFS Euro overphasing lows here and in Europe may have validity. If so, the best game in town will be the ensembles from the various models as they have pointed towards a more out to sea look than the operational.

Euro over-phasing, not GFS.

Ensembles are always the best game, IMO, beyond 120hr. That is, of course, outside of exceptionally rare events.

Oh yeah, this is huge bust #3 for the Euro in the 114 - 168hr time range? There was one in the start of November, then 12/5 and now 12/26. I may may that Nov one wrong, my memory isn't what it used to me.

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Well, if 12z doesn't start inching back, I think we're done. Let's just get it over with early

Yeah, it's over. Even with all the EURO craziness yesterday, I just couldn't get excited about this event. I am disappointed that we've wasted a month of cold and blocking. My fear is that next weekend's "event" will be an App runner, then we're essentially done until early March. :(

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LWX still sitting on the fence...

AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

913 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON

AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN

UPPER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY

INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

(snip)

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SAT...SHRTV TROF BENEATH NRN JET STREAM DIVES SE TWD MID-ATLC. 0Z

MODELS HINT AT ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROF...ESPECIALLY AS VORT

MAX ROTATES ACRS TROF AXIS. HAVE INCRD -SN CHCS TO ACCOUNT MODEL

TRENDS. THIS NRN SHRTWV APPEARS WEAK...AND EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS

MODEL PORTRAYS ONLY LIGHT QPF ACRS RGN. ECMWF...IN CONTRAST...LACKS

THE TROF AXIS FURTHER W...MEANING LESS RISK OF CHRISTMAS DAY SNOW.

HWVR...THIS SLOWER TRACK OF NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE WUD BRINGING

BETTER CHC OF PHASING WITH THE SRN SYSTEM DEPICTED IN PRECEDING

PARAGRAPH. TEMPS MAY BE AOA 32F DURG PART OF SAT...BUT THICKNESS

PROFILES SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE SNOW.

BY SAT NGT...LOPRES THAT DVLPD EARLIER IN THE DAY OVR NRN GULF COAST

WILL HV MOVED E TO OFFSHORE SE US...THEN INTENSIFY THRU SUN AS IT

MOVES N OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. GUIDANCE STILL NOT IN CONSENSUS WITH

EVLN OF THIS COASTAL LOPRES...IN INTENSITY OR TRACK...THOUGH SPREAD

OF SOLNS HAS NARROWED A BIT OVR LAST 12 HRS. IF THE TRACK OF SYSTEM

REMAINS WELL RMNS FAR ENUF OFFSHORE...CLOSER TO GFS FORECAST...THE

CWA MAY STILL LITTLE IMPACT ASIDE FROM INCRG NLY WINDS SUN/MON.

HWVR...IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AS INDICATED BY THE

ECMWF...WHICH ALSO PAINTS A SLOWER MOVING AND STRONGER LOPRES SYSTEM

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASING...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

COULD RESULT. ATTM...FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE

FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR SUN INTO ERY MON...WITH AREAS

CLOSER TO THE COAST HAVING THE BETTER CHCS FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE N/E OF RGN TWD NEW ENGLAND BY LATE

MONDAY...DIMINISHING SNOW CHANCES FOR ALL XCPT UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE

HIGHLANDS. HIPRES BUILDS IN FOR TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL

GUST AROUND 35 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME FOR TONIGHT.

VFR CONDS THRU FRI NGT...WITH NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS. CHC SN SAT THRU

MON...BRINGING RISKS FOR SUB-VFR VSBY AND CIGS. BEST CHC FOR

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN AND MON...THOUGH

FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLC SEABOARD.

&&

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Watching the 12Z WRF come in... and believe it or not: It is even slower with the southern shortwave. I've also noticed the North Atlantic retrograding Low push farther west. Clouds now into Philly and moving SW. BWI winds should reach 45 mph today.

Patience in snowcasting.... we are still 3 days away

post-1859-0-66190800-1293113466.jpg

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My fear is that next weekend's "event" will be an App runner...

I don't think it'll be that far east.

...then we're essentially done until early March. :(

I don't think this will be the case. I expected a bitter, dry December and a warm, slightly wetter, but still quite dry, Jan through the 2nd or 3rd week of Feb...then a brief cold and possibly wet period from that last week of Feb into March. That was back a couple months ago. I'm not so confident of that at all now.

I think it's going to warm up, a lot, but I'm not so confident of its longevity past the 1/18 - 1/26 time frame.

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Please clear this up for me...would the EURO/GFS run at 0z give the mid atlantic any snow? I am in southern maryland about 2 miles west of the ches.bay.Just trying to get an idea for work purposes this weekend. I am a cop and would like to know. Thanks!

There is a thread on the main page of the board that talks about what both the GFS and Euro showed last night.

Cliff notes version - not a lot of snow.

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We've seen this play out this way time and time again, mid Atlantic misses out while southern new England gets the brunt of the storm, climo, la nina, it's just the way it goes, I want snow very much like everyone on the board, but model trends like today are not good this close to a winter storm event . Sorry just my gut feeling

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