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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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Given the nearly 90 degree jetstream dip over the eastern US, I can see why many mets are forecasting an epic storm. But, again, I must emphasize that both the northern and southern streams must phase in order for the mid Atlantic to get a Christmas surprise unlike any we've ever had. This will not become clear for another 24 hours. Using sensationalism (a la blizzards of past) diminishes the good work local mets are charged with and is irresponsible.

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I wonder if this thing ends up even further west and even closer to the coast. That trough on the 84 panel of the NAM is pretty impressive. If you look at the 500 maps and toggle the 78 and 84 it looks like the trough is moving east, but that is deceiving. The height lines aren't the same. The trough barely moves in 6 hours. It is just getting deeper. The 540 line at the Ill. Indiana border at 78 actually moves backward to the Ill. Missouri border. The 546 line which is east of Memphis at 78 moves back west of Memphis at 84. The 552 line in central Alabama at 78 drops to near Mobile at 84. Now granted, I (especially me) have no idea if the NAM is correct or what it would do later, but this is interesting stuff.

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I know they are controversial, but they do have a bit of following in Baltimore after last year so thought some would like to know. Foots Forecast just went all in with a blizzard. Somewhat surprising, but guess that is what they do. NOT SAYING I believe this, just posting for entertainment to show how bold they went in their EXTREMELY detailed (but quite possibly wrong) just issued Facebook Alert.

http://www.facebook....ntermidatlantic

"Extent: Areas we expect snow to fall include PA south of I-80, Virginia and West Virginia east of I-81, Maryland and Delaware. Arrival of snow in these areas could occur as early as 5:00 PM Christmas Night south of the PA/MD line, and into central/eastern PA by 10:00 pm.

Duration: For the areas noted above, precipitation may be occurring over a 24 hour period or longer, from late Saturday 12/25 into Monday, 12/27.

Impacts: Light to moderate snow Saturday night into early Sunday morning, (70% confidence), with bands of heavy snow "wrapping around" the system on the backside, with the greatest effects on the Bayshore region of Lower Eastern MD. "

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I know they are controversial, but they do have a bit of following in Baltimore after last year so thought some would like to know. Foots Forecast just went all in with a blizzard. Somewhat surprising, but guess that is what they do. NOT SAYING I believe this, just posting for entertainment to show how bold they went in their EXTREMELY detailed (but quite possibly wrong) just issued Facebook Alert.

http://www.facebook....ntermidatlantic

"Extent: Areas we expect snow to fall include PA south of I-80, Virginia and West Virginia east of I-81, Maryland and Delaware. Arrival of snow in these areas could occur as early as 5:00 PM Christmas Night south of the PA/MD line, and into central/eastern PA by 10:00 pm.

Duration: For the areas noted above, precipitation may be occurring over a 24 hour period or longer, from late Saturday 12/25 into Monday, 12/27.

Impacts: Light to moderate snow Saturday night into early Sunday morning, (70% confidence), with bands of heavy snow "wrapping around" the system on the backside, with the greatest effects on the Bayshore region of Lower Eastern MD. "

Absolutely ridiculous. They went all in on the December 19th storm too. Too early for something like this...stupid.

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They are high school kids...I think. Have you seen the footage? ;)

Kudos to the kids for showing an interest in weather. But too many people actually take the forecasts seriously. Mostly based on past performance. (When Mr. Foot did the forecasting).

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Weenie hopes fail again? It ain't 09-10 anymore.

If we can get it 25 to 50 miles more west i will take my 3 to 6 inches and be thrilled. I am not greedy after being buried all last winter. People still think it is last winter for some reason. Two winters ago we would have had a woody for 3-6 inches.

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Is it wrong to think that DC could be in a good spot at this stage. Didn't GFS have the storm starting to bomb out off North Carolina and then out to sea.

Euro seems to have it bombing out from New York north. We are midway between 2, don't we still stand to benefit from an earlier bomb than Euro had or, something on the north of GFS solution were it to verify? Is this really going to be a loop completely around us?

Yes, may not be the Blizzard of the century, but think we are still very much in the the game at least through tomorrow at this time.

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Can't live and die by every model run. Euro holds the monster for while while the rest of the models gravitate towards the solution and then the Euro moves in between. Disappointing? Yes. Surprising? No.

I still like the evolution and track. Miller A's usually produce in the MA. Low moving across the gulf coast and then off SC before moving up the coast. Beats the hell out of a primary moving into the OH valley that transfers energy off the VA coast. We all know how those usually work out in these parts.

Not jumping off the bridge until 0Z tomorrow or even 12Z Friday. This setup can pop if the timing is there.

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