Christmas/Post Christmas Threat

[Ian]

I think it is borderline irresponsible for a MET, at this point, to not mention or severely downplay the potential. This is day after XMAS we are talking about. People are mature enough, I think, to know it may not happen.

If you did not actively seek out weather information, like we all do, would you even know a MONSTER like the Euro depicts was even a possibility? What if you want to, for whatever reason, rearrange your travel or flight plans based on even a potential.

Also, don't forget, this is the year in which we have already had two, perhaps, 3 major incidents across country of people being stranded on roads. Don't METS have an obligation to at least tell people, "hey if you are traveling early next week, pack a few blankets and some food and water just in case.

After tomorrow it may be getting too late. NO ONE EXCEPT PEOPLE LIKE US watch news XMAS EVE or Day.

People at work today (how ever few were left) seemed to be relatively aware there is snow potential looming. The problem for a TV met might just be time... you can't really flash a shot of the Euro blizzard and say "hey our best model keeps showing this" and then cut to commercial. I guess a lot are branching out into social media and such to explain more for those who care.

[WVclimo]

People at work today (how ever few were left) seemed to be relatively aware there is snow potential looming. The problem for a TV met might just be time... you can't really flash a shot of the Euro blizzard and say "hey our best model keeps showing this" and then cut to commercial. I guess a lot are branching out into social media and such to explain more for those who care.

At my job we have an informal staff "coffee bar" meeting at open of business on Wednesdays. The meeting opened with many inquiring of me what was going on with the weekend snow. Apparently I have outed my weenie in my time working there.

When I had to tell the whole group it was too early to know, they asked for my internet sources so they could see for themselves. A few confided how hopeful they were for a big snowstorm. Seems like last year really got the locals believing it can snow big here. And anecdotally, it obviously bodes well for the growth of these type of weather communities.

[katabatic]

I want a huge snowstorm just like everyone here (will be at my parents house in Midlothian, VA for Christmas), but from everything I've read, the continental sampling from the system off the West Coast, now coming ashore, will mean everything in terms of model agreement. I have everything I have possible crossed that the EURO is spot on, however my fear is that once the models pick up on the system once it moves into the Great Basin, we'll see a drastically different solution (good or bad). What does everyone think?

[wxmeddler]

Just a observation note... The bowling ball is now on shore, about an hour later and 60 miles south of where the 12z NAM placed it.

[weathercoins]

I want a huge snowstorm just like everyone here (will be at my parents house in Midlothian, VA for Christmas), but from everything I've read, the continental sampling from the system off the West Coast, now coming ashore, will mean everything in terms of model agreement. I have everything I have possible crossed that the EURO is spot on, however my fear is that once the models pick up on the system once it moves into the Great Basin, we'll see a drastically different solution (good or bad). What does everyone think?

Wellllll... A drastically different solution can't really be "good" for us snow lovers... Hard to get much better than euro without having a hurricane spin off the coast or something lol

[Ian]

At my job we have an informal staff "coffee bar" meeting at open of business on Wednesdays. The meeting opened with many inquiring of me what was going on with the weekend snow. Apparently I have outed my weenie in my time working there.

When I had to tell the whole group it was too early to know, they asked for my internet sources so they could see for themselves. A few confided how hopeful they were for a big snowstorm. Seems like last year really got the locals believing it can snow big here. And anecdotally, it obviously bodes well for the growth of these type of weather communities.

pretty much everyone is a weenie when you get down to it.. most people can sit and chat about the weather in detail for a long time if you want them to. the more "severe" weather of late or at least the perception of such seems to make it a more universal interest as well. IF this storm does come anything close to the Euro it's just an insane period of snow around here lately. counting only accumulating months... march 09, dec 09-feb 10, dec 10? maybe dc is a snow town now.

[wxmeddler]

I want a huge snowstorm just like everyone here (will be at my parents house in Midlothian, VA for Christmas), but from everything I've read, the continental sampling from the system off the West Coast, now coming ashore, will mean everything in terms of model agreement. I have everything I have possible crossed that the EURO is spot on, however my fear is that once the models pick up on the system once it moves into the Great Basin, we'll see a drastically different solution (good or bad). What does everyone think?

Wait, so are you worried that the system will get lost in the Rocky Mountains and re-appear in the great plains in a different position than the models are currently showing? Is that what you are asking?

[Huffwx]

Just a observation note... The bowling ball is now on shore, about an hour later and 60 miles south of where the 12z NAM placed it.

Isn't that too far south somewhat bad--- takes longer for the northern energy to reach it??

[nieciez]

Just a observation note... The bowling ball is now on shore, about an hour later and 60 miles south of where the 12z NAM placed it.

Is that good or bad for us (to get a major storm)?

[real]

Well, looks Ian is correct in noting its harder for t.v. METS to explain things to due to time... The Wash Post is now touting a possible "Blizzard" on its national and local homepage in effort to get readers to go read Wess' article on Cap. Weather.

http://www.washingto...-srv/local.html

[WVclimo]

pretty much everyone is a weenie when you get down to it.. most people can sit and chat about the weather in detail for a long time if you want them to. the more "severe" weather of late or at least the perception of such seems to make it a more universal interest as well. IF this storm does come anything close to the Euro it's just an insane period of snow around here lately. counting only accumulating months... march 09, dec 09-feb 10, dec 10? maybe dc is a snow town now.

I lived in that area for 25 years and saw maybe 8-10 decently heavy snowfalls. Guess it took me moving away to restore DC to its glory.

[Ian]

Well, looks Ian is correct in noting its harder for t.v. METS to explain things to due to time... The Wash Post is now touting a "Possible Blizzard" word on its national and local homepage in effort to get readers to go read Wess' article on Cap. Weather.

http://www.washingto...-srv/local.html

blizzards sell for sure.. but the front page of any paper etc has always led with language that entices. once inside the article the reader gets more than they could hope for and no hype whatsoever.

[katabatic]

I'm not worried about the system getting 'lost'...what I'm concerned about is the models making assumptions about the West Coast storm that will phase with the northern stream becoming factual once the system is onshore and making progress across the continent. If it is assuming it will do X, but in reality doing Y, the models will respond (as they should) to the new reality. In order to get a massive storm along the mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor, you must have everything perfect. And while some models do depict a perfect solution, I'm concerned it's based on assumption and not model fact from the most important part of the brewing storm.

I'm not trying to be the party pooping weenie (sans egg nog; I drink the bourbon straight), I'm trying to discern, at this point, how much the models may be assuming vs. picking up the actual track of the west coast energy.

Wait, so are you worried that the system will get lost in the Rocky Mountains and re-appear in the great plains in a different position than the models are currently showing? Is that what you are asking?

[wxmeddler]

Is that good for us (to get a major storm)?

1st off..

2nd. Its a very slight movement, and there is no way at this time to draw a conclusion about a observation 3000 miles away post-phase. If anything it might mean a slower track (1-2 hours max).

[H2O]

The Euro could falter. After 3 runs like it just had I'd be surprised if the storm was super sucky (like a total whif) but not shocked. It could just be seeing something wrong continually.

How many runs of consistency do you need to see to buy in to a solution? 4, 5, 10, all the way up to the event? I know it is atill early and anything can/will change but it is rare for a particular model to string this number of runs together that show the same thing this far out.

[Ian]

How many runs of consistency do you need to see to buy in to a solution? 4, 5, 10, all the way up to the event? I know it is atill early and anything can/will change but it is rare for a particular model to string this number of runs together that show the same thing this far out.

Yesterday the Euro seemed foolish but now I would probably lean to it. If the GFS doesnt jump aboard tonight or very soon there's a problem maybe. The other globals are of lesser concern to me personally but I guess it would be nice to start shifting the bomb on them into the right spot.

[wxmeddler]

I'm not worried about the system getting 'lost'...what I'm concerned about is the models making assumptions about the West Coast storm that will phase with the northern stream becoming factual once the system is onshore and making progress across the continent. If it is assuming it will do X, but in reality doing Y, the models will respond (as they should) to the new reality. In order to get a massive storm along the mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor, you must have everything perfect. And while some models do depict a perfect solution, I'm concerned it's based on assumption and not model fact from the most important part of the brewing storm.

I'm not trying to be the party pooping weenie (sans egg nog), I'm trying to discern, at this point, how much the models may be assuming vs. picking up the actual track of the west coast energy.

Well, strictly speaking,Models do not have assumptions, you could say that they have no "weenie" in them. Thats why it is a big deal when the Euro puts out a 970 bomb. It could very well be( and often is) that the storm is weaker/ stronger than printed due to tiny atmospheric differences. Thats when the forecaster has to step in and say... I think it will be weaker/stonger because of X,Y and Z.

[wxmeddler]

How many runs of consistency do you need to see to buy in to a solution? 4, 5, 10, all the way up to the event? I know it is atill early and anything can/will change but it is rare for a particular model to string this number of runs together that show the same thing this far out.

I agree, this is a tough question that doesn't have a clear cut answer to it and I bet if you asked multiple mets they would all have differing opinions. What I like to do is put model runs on a time line with the end at the event. It becomes very easy to spot all sorts of patterns both long term and short term. Even specific model time patterns show easily. It's quite handy if you think of it like that.

[nieciez]

1st off..

2nd. Its a very slight movement, and there is no way at this time to draw a conclusion about a observation 3000 miles away post-phase. If anything it might mean a slower track (1-2 hours max).

First off. I am not trying to be a weenie....I am just a novice who has been following/lurking the old board for about 2 years and migrated here. We have to do a road trip up to NJ on Sunday and just concerned on how this all is going to play out and the possibility of changing our plans. And slower is good....thanks

[katabatic]

True about the assumptions...but given the data collection is much weaker where the storms are/were, that's what I meant about assumptions. If you only have 10 bits of data in X position, and 24-36 hours you have 100 bits of data in Y position, it yields a much stronger model. Taking all discussions, met conversations and model runs into account, it seems as though the somewhat less amplified, less snow solution, is winning out. I'm hoping after all the data is gathered once all systems are continental, we'll have a better picture of a historic east coast storm. Give me a 970 bomb 50 miles east of the Chesapeake...I'll take it in a heartbeat. But the skeptic in me (a la last week) says the uncertainty and my more-trusted GFS gives a solution that makes a lot of people, especially me without the bourbon, grumpy.

Well, strictly speaking,Models do not have assumptions, you could say that they have no "weenie" in them. Thats why it is a big deal when the Euro puts out a 970 bomb. It could very well be( and often is) that the storm is weaker/ stronger than printed due to tiny atmospheric differences. Thats when the forecaster has to step in and say... I think it will be weaker/stonger because of X,Y and Z.

[Doug73]

Philly TV Mets are at least hinting of a big snow storm Sunday into Monday:

Hurricane Schwartz:

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/

ABC6 David Murphy (currently stating C-1" for Philly and 1-3" at shore regions)

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/video?t=2⊂=2#global

CBS 3 (several inches possible - video on right)

http://weather.philadelphia.cbslocal.com/US/PA/Philadelphia.html

[mdhokie]

Damn, 0z thread is already debbie downer.

[Carolina23]

Damn, 0z thread is already debbie downer.

The Barclonic dude is nothing but bad news...

[wxmeddler]

True about the assumptions...but given the data collection is much weaker where the storms are/were, that's what I meant about assumptions. If you only have 10 bits of data in X position, and 24-36 hours you have 100 bits of data in Y position, it yields a much stronger model. Taking all discussions, met conversations and model runs into account, it seems as though the somewhat less amplified, less snow solution, is winning out. I'm hoping after all the data is gathered once all systems are continental, we'll have a better picture of a historic east coast storm. Give me a 970 bomb 50 miles east of the Chesapeake...I'll take it in a heartbeat. But the skeptic in me (a la last week) says the uncertainty and my more-trusted GFS gives a solution that makes a lot of people, especially me without the bourbon, grumpy.

This is true to an extent, it is true that the west coast does not have as much RAOB (weather balloon) stations as the great plain states have. However, this is usually compensated by the satellite data. Though I am one of those "need actual obs data" people so I would be double crossing myself if I said that the satellite data was proficient to counteract the decrease in density of RAOB's. In my opinion we have made data gains getting the RAOBs in the system, however its up to the forecaster to weigh how much the RAOB's are helping the models.

[Ian]

nam looked pretty good as far as the nam in this range goes

[H2O]

The Barclonic dude is nothing but bad news...

And apparently wrong

[wxmeddler]

nam looked pretty good as far as the nam in this range goes

Yep, it matches up very closely to the 12z GEM..

96 hrs on the 12z GEM

84 hrs on the 00z NAM

[katabatic]

I'm not a met (economics at University of California, Irvine) but at this point, no met is going to put his neck out and make a real forecast, so it's up to the models to direct us. I'm not trying to be difficult, but rather showcase the forecasting of (and thus, getting excited about) a model that gives us the perfect scenario and thus is ultimately premature. Even with non professionals making up a majority of the member forum, it is undoubtedly trolled by professional mets trying to get a look at what may happen and what we're saying. My point is while looking at certain model solutions is exciting and socially stimulating, I want to wait for solid model guidance before setting off even the most rudimentary alarm bells so we don't wake up 12/27 with brown grass and a really crappy mood.

This is true to an extent, it is true that the west coast does not have as much RAOB (weather balloon) stations as the great plain states have. However, this is usually compensated by the satellite data. Though I am one of those "need actual obs data" people so I would be double crossing myself if I said that the satellite data was proficient to counteract the decrease in density of RAOB's. In my opinion we have made data gains getting the RAOBs in the system, however its up to the forecaster to weigh how much the RAOB's are helping the models.

[wxmeddler]

I'm not a met (economics at University of California, Irvine) but at this point, no met is going to put his neck out and make a real forecast, so it's up to the models to direct us. I'm not trying to be difficult, but rather showcase the forecasting of (and thus, getting excited about) a model that gives us the perfect scenario and thus is ultimately premature. Even with non professionals making up a majority of the member forum, it is undoubtedly trolled by professional mets trying to get a look at what may happen and what we're saying. My point is while looking at certain model solutions is exciting and socially stimulating, I want to wait for solid model guidance before setting off even the most rudimentary alarm bells so we don't wake up 12/27 with brown grass and a really crappy mood.

100 % agree. That right there is the difference between the weenies ()and the people who actually know what their talking about.

[Sparky]

FOX 45 news in Baltimore ran footage of Superstorm 93 in an attempt to indicate what is possible here.