Christmas/Post Christmas Threat

[Solo2]

Good old convervative Doug Hill (DC Met WJLA TV 7) just said on his radio update at 4:08 that he thinks the models showing the weaker/more offshore solutions will end up being correct vs the heavy snowfall scenario

There could be 2'+ on the ground and Doug Hill would call for 1-3" with isolate 4" spots. Problem with this storm is that after tomorrow very few will be watching TV, etc. If the 0z euro holds tonight they need to sound the alarms on air tomorrow.

[yoda]

12z euro total snowfall accum. output totals

RIC ashland to akq DTVILLE jack pot 24"+

DCA ORF RDU CHO 20"

75%of va gets 15"+

[Fozz]

LWX just lowered my snow chances for this weekend....it's over

You are an idiot, Ji.

[Yeoman]

Good old convervative Doug Hill (DC Met WJLA TV 7) just said on his radio update at 4:08 that he thinks the models showing the weaker/more offshore solutions will end up being correct vs the heavy snowfall scenario

The ex-PG cop? I'm worried

[nieciez]

Veronica Johnson on NBC4 DC pretty much down played the coming storm with only a slight chance of the storm bombing and giving us a large storm.

[Kmlwx]

Veronica Johnson on NBC4 DC pretty much down played the coming storm with only a slight chance of the storm bombing and giving us a large storm.

DC mets do that.

[weathercoins]

Tv mets know if they hype up a huge storm and it doesn't happen, they are in trouble. If they play it conservative until 24-36 hrs before, then hype it up, they look "correct". They are seeing the same things we are, and have all spoken to each other collaborating how to play this one 100 hours away.

[kurtstack]

DC mets get death threats from ji if they say the word blizzard and nothing happens. So they downplay any event.

[kurtstack]

18z gfs 700 humidity field implies much more overrunning out in front of the storm on christmas day, but no qpf. Probably just virga. Im not sure I buy the jump 300 miles east from savannah GA either. Right up to 84 hours it seems in line with euro albeit faster. Just an odd low track.

[Fozz]

If mets hype a storm too much, and it doesn't happen, they'll lose credibility and people will more likely ignore them if a real threat arises. And if mets downplay a storm right until it happens, people die.

So besides analyzing the models, they also need to think about how their forecasts will affect society.

[SnowJoe]

DC mets get death threats from ji if they say the word blizzard and nothing happens. So they downplay any event.

Some mets know how to downplay an event without shooting themselves in the foot.

Just my perception...but it's all about perception in TV land...right?

[Ian]

DC mets do that.

it's probably still wise for now

[Kmlwx]

it's probably still wise for now

No argument there. But I'm just saying - they all have done that in the past and will continue to do so. I'm doing the same thing on my website. No need to push things especially on a holiday weekend. I certainly don't think we're going to get a 20 inch storm.

[eurojosh]

No argument there. But I'm just saying - they all have done that in the past and will continue to do so. I'm doing the same thing on my website. No need to push things especially on a holiday weekend. I certainly don't think we're going to get a 20 inch storm.

Let's say the GFS comes in at 00Z with a hit; we're 4.5 days out; on a normal run that would give, what, a 60-65% probability with GFS-ECWMF agreement - with perhaps further adjustment for climo (though much less so at 100 hours than 180). So the LWX pops, for example, are pretty right in terms of some accumulation, and the tv mets are also, percentage-wise, on the right side.

[notvirga!]

Chuck Bell NBC4 official snow weenie has been touting possible snow all week.

[Ellinwood]

For the people against downplaying... you make it sound like it's easy to go in front of millions of people and say that there is strong potential for a big snow storm along I-95 when there's still a high disagreement between the models. That, and given the recent storm system verifications and climo, would make me hard-pressed to make a call on this storm outside of 84 hours.

[PhineasC]

We have been tracking this for days and days, so it feels closer than it really is. The storm is still 100 hours away.

[weathercoins]

If the later model track holds and this storm happens, with supermarkets closed Christmas, I can't imagine the crowds early Sunday morning.

[weathercoins]

If the later model track holds and this storm happens, with supermarkets closed Christmas, I can't imagine the crowds early Sunday morning.

[psuhoffman]

We have been tracking this for days and days, so it feels closer than it really is. The storm is still 100 hours away.

plus its been moved back about 36 hours too so that doesn't help

[Ender]

it's probably still wise for now

No, not now that the ECE mean has come so far west in support of the OP.

It's a done deal at this point.

[weathercoins]

No, not now that the ECE mean has come so far west in support of the OP.

It's a done deal at this point.

I think touting the whole "it might go out to sea is one track, equal chance it will go up the coast" as I've seen all day is somewhat dishonest at this point, but saying a huge storm is coming is premature.

[Ender]

I think touting the whole "it might go out to sea is one track, equal chance it will go up the coast" as I've seen all day is somewhat dishonest at this point, but saying a huge storm is coming is premature.

I'm being facetious in the extreme.

Think of it as bitter hyperbole.

[Don Cherry's Jacket]

TV Mets are definitely in a tough spot. The ones who post here seem to know that and are mindful of the panic button issue. But, maybe when there's a 10 percent of a massive storm they could mention that with a "check back on Thursday" note or say "I think it will miss but if it hits, wowzer!" Even if they spend most of the time talking about how its not going to happen, a quit nod to the high total potential seems safe. They can keep numbers out if they don't want to start panics, but to me, when there's a big solution, especially during a travel period, they can spare 15 seconds to mention it.

I'm not a met, but I used to be in TV and radio (mostly radio) and I know time is handed out with an eyedropper, but still, if people get stranded on the Turnpike they are going to be grumpy.

[Dr No]

I'm kinda curious about Christmas day again. I had pretty much dismissed any "overrunning" snows with the storm on Saturday figuring the things would gel too far south to effect us before Sunday. But both the NAM and GFS (I dont have Euro qpfs), with the more powerful southern stream vort and polar energy digging down, get pretty good RHs far north on Saturday. (see 700mb maps)

At a minimum its going to be a cloudy day, but if it continues to trend stronger, perhaps enough lift will exist to start to break some light snow out sooner than expected. There's certainly going to be no shortage of lift over the cold dome as the thing starts cranking up.

[weathercoins]

I'm kinda curious about Christmas day again. I had pretty much dismissed any "overrunning" snows with the storm on Saturday figuring the things would gel too far south to effect us before Sunday. But both the NAM and GFS (I dont have Euro qpfs), with the more powerful southern stream vort and polar energy digging down, get pretty good RHs far north on Saturday. (see 700mb maps)

At a minimum its going to be a cloudy day, but if it continues to trend stronger, perhaps enough lift will exist to start to break some light snow out sooner than expected. There's certainly going to be no shortage of lift over the cold dome as the thing starts cranking up.

Memories of 2003.....

[real]

I think it is borderline irresponsible for a MET, at this point, to not mention or severely downplay the potential. This is day after XMAS we are talking about. People are mature enough, I think, to know it may not happen.

If you did not actively seek out weather information, like we all do, would you even know a MONSTER like the Euro depicts was even a possibility? What if you want to, for whatever reason, rearrange your travel or flight plans based on even a potential.

Also, don't forget, this is the year in which we have already had two, perhaps, 3 major incidents across country of people being stranded on roads. Don't METS have an obligation to at least tell people, "hey if you are traveling early next week, pack a few blankets and some food and water just in case.

After tomorrow it may be getting too late. NO ONE EXCEPT PEOPLE LIKE US watch news XMAS EVE or Day.

[mitchnick]

If this thing comes to fruition as proged by EC, or even close to it, you watch how history is rewritten and certain "people" here will say how easy this was to forecast this storm and how the EC had it days in advance

you watch

[Ian]

If this thing comes to fruition as proged by EC, or even close to it, you watch how history is rewritten and certain "people" here will say how easy this was to forecast this storm and how the EC had it days in advance

you watch

so far it's mostly been weenies who have hugged the euro to a T. i mean after this many runs it's hard to doubt it as much as maybe this time yesterday but still.

[Ian]

I'm being facetious in the extreme.

Think of it as bitter hyperbole.

The Euro could falter. After 3 runs like it just had I'd be surprised if the storm was super sucky (like a total whif) but not shocked. It could just be seeing something wrong continually.