Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 FWIW, if the 12z EURO run were to be realized, what would the winds be like? I see 65kts 850 winds at 120... It looks like 10m winds at 126hr would be in the 20 - 25kt range with gusts in the 40kt to possibly over 45kt. That's for DC west to JYO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 im definitely getting enthused now... hard to hug one model but the euro solutions here are almost identical at least dc south qpf-wise last three runs You're right Ian... hard to not get jazzed about this. Euro has been crazy consistent. It's easy to buy into HPC's argument about the Euro having the higher resolution. Most of the fun and games should be on Monday right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 im definitely getting enthused now... hard to hug one model but the euro solutions here are almost identical at least dc south qpf-wise last three runs It's hard not to at this point. Here's an interesting, albeit weaker, similarity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 It looks like 10m winds at 126hr would be in the 20 - 25kt range with gusts in the 40kt to possibly over 45kt. That's for DC west to JYO. It's funny that the only storm last winter to feature major winds was 2/10. If this occurred as depicted, it would be much more crippling than the December storm last year and possibly on par with the February event--not as much snow, but the winds would be much stronger, and if we're getting sustained to 30mph with gusts to 50 there could certainly be power outages. Not to mention drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 You're right Ian... hard to not get jazzed about this. Euro has been crazy consistent. It's easy to buy into HPC's argument about the Euro having the higher resolution. Most of the fun and games should be on Monday right? time-frame right now looks a lot like the Dec Blizzard last yr... in around dark then big stuff overnight into the next day as the low stalls then drifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's hard not to at this point. Here's an interesting, albeit weaker, similarity... ha just used that one in the timing comparo. what is interesting about the last two runs of the euro is that the low basically stalls then drifts east much like the biggies last yr. i guess it's the block setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Afternoon disco from LWX .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY BEFORE EMERGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET SUNDAY WHILE TRACKING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY AS IT HEADS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE STILL TWO SCENARIOS THAT REMAIN. THE FIRST SCENARIO IS THAT LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COASTLINE...PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE AREA. THE SECOND SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST FOR LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE TODAY HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARDS THE FIRST SCENARIO...BUT GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS DIVERGENT IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION. WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY SNOW DOES OCCUR IT IS MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD STAY APPRISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 can you tell me what Annapolis is thanks? 2.40" for SBY. It'd seem like there might be a period in there where .88" could be mixed with IP. At that time T85 is at -3.3C and TSFC is 1.6C. The total for IAD would be 1.45" and DCA would be 1.65". The 850mb to SFC temps would argue for fairly high snow ratios in this area. RIC looks to be 2.06" and, again, -9C to -11C aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 can you tell me what Annapolis is thanks? I would think because we are east of Balt and DC we'd get a bit more... either way you're really splitting hairs here WhiteoutMD. We should benefit quite nicely like everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I don't have a good feeling about this. MDstorm That bad feeling must have been the burrito I had for lunch. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Euro ops is no longer a borderline outlier at 12z. The ensemble mean would be pretty destructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Unreal. The Euro keeps the same solution for 4 runs in a row. Gotta love the consistency. All other models trending towards Euro. I think its almost a guarantee that a bomb is gonna roll up the coast. The question is will it bomb in time for us. It used to be if you were west of the cities you got burried. But in this case I think the further east you are, the better odds you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Elkridge ftw again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 im definitely getting enthused now... hard to hug one model but the euro solutions here are almost identical at least dc south qpf-wise last three runs Have to say that I am too. I always mix my enthusiasm with a big dose of pessimism, but the Euro is dialing in on this solution and the other models are seeing this bomb now, too. Even those that had a big storm have come back a little west, while the Euro hasn't budged. Amazing turn of events since 12Z yesterday. If the Euro holds onto a similar solution at 0Z, and the other models are relatively consistent with the 12Z runs, then I'd go all in. For whatever that's worth. What an unreal storm this thing is modeled to be. If it even turns out half a good as modeled, it'd be a hell of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Oh...I meant the ensembles would be West and ride inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Elkridge ftw again? Good thing I'm off work all next week then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Poor Ender...now his ensembles are abandoning him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I feel like with this setup I'm sitting pretty in Queenstown on the DelMarVa... Since temps aren't going to be a concern, the farther east (without being right on the coast), the better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This thing is getting cranked up so far south that there is going to be a massive precip shield with it. Delmarva all the way to the Apps is going to be pounded (if the Euro is right of course). The orographic influence of the piedmont in northern MD will probably squeeze out extra QPF too. If the Euro verifies, it will be interesting to see the accum maps. Places like Westminster, Mt. Airy, Hampstead, etc may jackpot along with the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ha just used that one in the timing comparo. what is interesting about the last two runs of the euro is that the low basically stalls then drifts east much like the biggies last yr. i guess it's the block setup? Yeah, it looks like it phases and then runs up into a wall. can you tell me what Annapolis is thanks? 1.64" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Poor Ender...now his ensembles are abandoning him I wouldn't go that far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Hey can somebody please tell me based on the 12z euro when snow would start in Northern VA and when it would start getting bad. I would really appreciate it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I wouldn't go that far... Storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I wouldn't go that far... Sweet! Any weenie worth their salt knows to only resort to ensembles only if the OP shows nothing.. We all know how well the ensembles work out in that scenario.. oh, and make sure all maps are included in the quote with your two word response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro has been extremely consistent with this storm, never waivering, and now it's gaining strong support from it's ensembles, and even gaining some moderate support from the SE based GFS and it's ensemble members. I love where we stand right now with strong support from the best verifying model and supporting trends from most other models. Far from a lock, but confidence has to be growing in the possibility of a high consequence event for much of the east coast. Even the NAM plasters alabama, georgia, and south carolina with a white christmas at 84. These are places not really equipped to handle snow. It's going to be a very intriguing storm to watch unfold. Even Wes is starting to waffle toward the idea of a high potential event. He has the keys to the bus and when Wes says to start the engine you know it's on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This thing is getting cranked up so far south that there is going to be a massive precip shield with it. Delmarva all the way to the Apps is going to be pounded (if the Euro is right of course). The orographic influence of the piedmont in northern MD will probably squeeze out extra QPF too. If the Euro verifies, it will be interesting to see the accum maps. Places like Westminster, Mt. Airy, Hampstead, etc may jackpot along with the coastal plain. I agree some elevation can be helpful. But If the storm is wound up tight it could have a very sharp cut-off on the n/w portion of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Unreal. The Euro keeps the same solution for 4 runs in a row. Gotta love the consistency. All other models trending towards Euro. I think its almost a guarantee that a bomb is gonna roll up the coast. The question is will it bomb in time for us. It used to be if you were west of the cities you got burried. But in this case I think the further east you are, the better odds you have. I think this thing is going to drift west on the models over the coming days. I can't ignore how far south the cold air gets creating a huge temperature gradient along the immediate coast in the southeast and mid-atlantic that storms love to feed off of. That coastal front is our friend with this setup, and paritularly to those folks in WVA and Western Maryland, Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LWX just lowered my snow chances for this weekend....it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LWX just lowered my snow chances for this weekend....it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Unreal. The Euro keeps the same solution for 4 runs in a row. Gotta love the consistency. All other models trending towards Euro. I think its almost a guarantee that a bomb is gonna roll up the coast. The question is will it bomb in time for us. It used to be if you were west of the cities you got burried. But in this case I think the further east you are, the better odds you have. Good old convervative Doug Hill (DC Met WJLA TV 7) just said on his radio update at 4:08 that he thinks the models showing the weaker/more offshore solutions will end up being correct vs the heavy snowfall scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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