Guest someguy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 0z euro ens mean aint bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 If this was correct, 30 hours of snow. If only it could come true. Those are some bEaUtiful graphics there. Maybe this winter can pull a rabbit out of the hat just once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=&stn=KDCA&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Looks goooood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Euro is more progressive and scoots OTS, but still gives RIC .25-.5 per Tombo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Euro gives whole area except perhaps ne MD, N DE .1"+ with .25"+ over much of VA except the NOVA area... .5"+ sw and se va. ots after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Euro gives whole area except perhaps ne MD, N DE .1"+ with .25"+ over much of VA except the NOVA area... .5"+ sw and se va. ots after. I thought as much from the 168 hr psu graphic. it wouldn't take much for a much better hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I thought as much from the 168 hr psu graphic. it wouldn't take much for a much better hit. looks like the areas with best precip in va would have some mixing issues but the euro has had this for a few runs now so... gfs out to lunch imo but i guess there's a risk at this pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 looks like the areas with best precip in va would have some mixing issues but the euro has had this for a few runs now so... gfs out to lunch imo but i guess there's a risk at this pt In a nina year, heck, any year. The euro look is the more likely solution than a look like the gfs. Still the D+8 pattern makes me more interested than I'd be otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It looks like the pattern still is ripe after Christmas... might be another chance around New Years as well. I'd rather have guidance SE now since there are no pinwheels of death shown near by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I find it annoying that two people on here are in semi troll mode because they have travel plans during this potential...not you terpeast. Hmm. I hope you're not talking about my post that I quoted below. If you are, then I think you misunderstood what I meant. I've got tons of family and friends in this area and although I won't be here for the holiday, I sure hope that they get to enjoy a Christmas storm. I've been waiting for a true white Christmas all of my life and watch it happen this year because I'm getting on a plane Christmas eve at 7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmorelights Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Oh man... Flying on Christmas day ain't looking so good right now... I'm wondering if BWI will do better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I find it annoying that two people on here are in semi troll mode because they have travel plans during this potential...not you terpeast. I,m curious, why so??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I posted this in the 12z model thread also but having some models a little south is a good thing this time. The 12/19 event was different because the 'north" trend we see usually would not help us, the problems were the trough axis being too far east, not enough stj energy, and a late phase. None of that is improved by a north trend of the H5 energy. Actually it was made worse. The normal error of all models from 7 days out is to dig h5 impulses and lows too far south in the CONUS. This is why we see the "north" trend. many confused it for a west trend because the coast moves SW to NE so a north trend also brings precip further inland as you move up the coast but it is a north not a west trend in reality. Having the mean of all the models a little south of DC right now is a very good thing. I will be in Reston VA for the holidays and right now I would still be more worried about mixing issues then a miss south from the data as it is now. This setup is infinitely more promising then the last one. Not sure I buy the crazy 12z GFS solution but I think a moderate snowstorm is very possible. Then again, the euro ensemble mean is very encouraging and we are still at a range when even the euro can not be seeing the intensity of the system yet. I also like the whole pattern through New Years for the potential of snowfall in general. A retrograding block over canada, extreme -AO, and it looks like that freaking pinwheel of death over the PAC nw is relaxing for a while. This could be a good end to 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Doesn't look as strong as before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Hmm. I hope you're not talking about my post that I quoted below. If you are, then I think you misunderstood what I meant. I've got tons of family and friends in this area and although I won't be here for the holiday, I sure hope that they get to enjoy a Christmas storm. No not you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Doesn't look as strong as before? Still a very nice 3-6" event on Christmas...what's to hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Doesn't look as strong as before? before was laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Still a very nice 3-6" event on Christmas...what's to hate don't forget New Year's Eve my friend http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_pcp300336_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 before was laughable Even if it is only a 4" job if you're not here will you be a tad sad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 don't forget New Year's Eve my friend http://www.nco.ncep....p300336_l.shtml Yeah...the HM storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Even if it is only a 4" job if you're not here will you be a tad sad? Of course... Especially if I get nothing. But spending Xmas alone with a box of Cheese Its probably not much fun either..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Of course... Especially if I get nothing. But spending Xmas alone with a box of Cheese Its probably not much fun either..? Depends on the type of cheese I guess....I like blue cheese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like an unusual amount of moisture for such a west to east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 given what HM said, it raises a red flag for all of the region. Just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Anybody else starting to get a little tingle in their happy place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like an unusual amount of moisture for such a west to east track. If you read HPC discussion, you will find the reason why it is so wet. Gulf Inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 from hpc this morning..... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 400 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010 VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010 ...INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST TOWARD CHRISTMAS... USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS IN PHENOMENALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS WITH THE TRACK AND RELATIVE INTENSITY OF THE MAJOR WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST DAY 5 TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DAY 7. FURTHERMORE...THE 00Z/19 GEFS MEAN IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z/18 ECENS MEAN WITH THE SAME SYSTEM...ADDITIONALLY PARTICULARLY ROBUST SUPPORT. USED THE ECMWF SINCE ITS DETAILS TEND TO VERIFY BETTER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHICH MAY HELP TO SORT OUT THE NOISY SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESURGING INTO THE WEST THIS PERIOD. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 One of the Day 8 analogs from yesterday was 01/06/1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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