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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat

Nikolai

By Nikolai,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ender

Ender

Posted
Posted

I have to agree. I am just not buying this large storm idea.

I genuinely felt that the euro would start moving towards the a consensus mean (consensus with the rest of the global models) by 12Z today. Instead it basically just spit out the same forecast that it had from 0Z. It's perhaps 6hr slower but other than that...it's pretty much the same forecast. I was discarding this single OP model as repeating its mistakes of the last several weeks. At this point any reasonable person would have to question their stubbornness. I can't see the UKMET past 72hr, but I can tell that its already more amplified with the ridge over the Rockies for 12Z Friday. Clearly it's going to pull west towards the EC.

I'm going to head down to Wegman's before that Leesburg guy buys all the milk, and before he can track me down and assault me in the produce aisle for having insulted his "logic and implied conclusion". You know how people out there in Leesburg can be, it's really not any better than West Virginia. Were it not for the tiny Best Buy kiosk, you'd think you were in a snowless version of Elkins.

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MidlothianWX

MidlothianWX

Posted
Posted

I genuinely felt that the euro would start moving towards the a consensus mean (consensus with the rest of the global models) by 12Z today. Instead it basically just spit out the same forecast that it had from 0Z. It's perhaps 6hr slower but other than that...it's pretty much the same forecast. I was discarding this single OP model as repeating its mistakes of the last several weeks. At this point any reasonable person would have to question their stubbornness. I can't see the UKMET past 72hr, but I can tell that its already more amplified with the ridge over the Rockies for 12Z Friday. Clearly it's going to pull west towards the EC.

I'm going to head down to Wegman's before that Leesburg guy buys all the milk, and before he can track me down and assault me in the produce aisle for having insulted his "logic and implied conclusion". You know how people out there in Leesburg can be, it's really not any better than West Virginia. Were it not for the tiny Best Buy kiosk, you'd think you were in a snowless version of Elkins.

When the met is running to the grocery store, you know we are in BIZNESS!!! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted

I genuinely felt that the euro would start moving towards the a consensus mean (consensus with the rest of the global models) by 12Z today. Instead it basically just spit out the same forecast that it had from 0Z. It's perhaps 6hr slower but other than that...it's pretty much the same forecast. I was discarding this single OP model as repeating its mistakes of the last several weeks. At this point any reasonable person would have to question their stubbornness. I can't see the UKMET past 72hr, but I can tell that its already more amplified with the ridge over the Rockies for 12Z Friday. Clearly it's going to pull west towards the EC.

I'm going to head down to Wegman's before that Leesburg guy buys all the milk, and before he can track me down and assault me in the produce aisle for having insulted his "logic and implied conclusion". You know how people out there in Leesburg can be, it's really not any better than West Virginia. Were it not for the tiny Best Buy kiosk, you'd think you were in a snowless version of Elkins.

Why you!!! I'm gonna talk to the town and make sure you Ashburners pay triple for water that us leesburgers pay. I have a full set of my own teef by the way...don't lump us in with WV.

Hope you get lots of snow!!

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Ender

Ender

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Anyone know where I can find the Euro QPF numbers? Or is it subscription only? Trying to figure out SBY.

2.40" for SBY. It'd seem like there might be a period in there where .88" could be mixed with IP. At that time T85 is at -3.3C and TSFC is 1.6C.

The total for IAD would be 1.45" and DCA would be 1.65". The 850mb to SFC temps would argue for fairly high snow ratios in this area.

RIC looks to be 2.06" and, again, -9C to -11C aloft.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

I genuinely felt that the euro would start moving towards the a consensus mean (consensus with the rest of the global models) by 12Z today. Instead it basically just spit out the same forecast that it had from 0Z. It's perhaps 6hr slower but other than that...it's pretty much the same forecast. I was discarding this single OP model as repeating its mistakes of the last several weeks. At this point any reasonable person would have to question their stubbornness. I can't see the UKMET past 72hr, but I can tell that its already more amplified with the ridge over the Rockies for 12Z Friday. Clearly it's going to pull west towards the EC.

I'm going to head down to Wegman's before that Leesburg guy buys all the milk, and before he can track me down and assault me in the produce aisle for having insulted his "logic and implied conclusion". You know how people out there in Leesburg can be, it's really not any better than West Virginia. Were it not for the tiny Best Buy kiosk, you'd think you were in a snowless version of Elkins.

lmaosmiley.giflmaosmiley.giflmaosmiley.gif

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Ender

Ender

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Posted

Why you!!! I'm gonna talk to the town and make sure you Ashburners pay triple for water that us leesburgers pay. I have a full set of my own teef by the way...don't lump us in with WV.

Hope you get lots of snow!!

Oh man that whole water argument...sick of that one. I missed that injustice by something like 3mi. It's a whole different world over here along Claiborne parkway. Oh, and by the way, I wasn't trying to imply that you were so poor that you'd have to share a set of teeth with someone else. I'm sure you were able to get your own set...

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aldie 22

aldie 22

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Oh man that whole water argument...sick of that one. I missed that injustice by something like 3mi. It's a whole different world over here along Claiborne parkway. Oh, and by the way, I wasn't trying to imply that you were so poor that you'd have to share a set of teeth with someone else. I'm sure you were able to get your own set...

That's the other dude in Leesburg...

Claiborne parkway?? The lady that cleans our house lives over that way. :snowman:

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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted

The 12Z UK is definitely well east of the EC...but it's even more impressive with the system, a full 8mb or more deeper, and, yes, it seems like it's probably a bit west of its last track...but definitely not the 12Z EC.

12zukmet500mbHGHTNA120.gif

Jesus 966 right there?? bound to get some precip thrown back far with that. I think I saw the RH maps and the 80% was by our house but DC was in the 100%

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

what is the updated time line for the storm?It now seems more a Sunday afternoon-Monday event for me.Is this right?

euro drops about .1" across the dc area by 0z MON... looks to wind down between 18z Mon and 0z Tue

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