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Christmas/Post Christmas Threat


Nikolai

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But the ensembles supported the 6z op...how could this happen?

Nope. You're implied logic/conclusion isn't valid. The 6Z GEFS and GFS didn't support the 0Z EC. That's the relevant issue. The 12Z OP GFS isn't a horrible divergence from the 6Z GEFS. If the GFS were now showing the 0Z EC that would qualify for "how can this be?"

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Nope. You're implied logic/conclusion isn't valid. The 6Z GEFS and GFS didn't support the 0Z EC. That's the relevant issue. The 12Z OP GFS isn't a horrible divergence from the 6Z GEFS. If the GFS were now showing the 0Z EC that would qualify for "how can this be?"

I'm lost....I'm going back to stocking milk now...thanks.

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Nope. You're implied logic/conclusion isn't valid. The 6Z GEFS and GFS didn't support the 0Z EC. That's the relevant issue. The 12Z OP GFS isn't a horrible divergence from the 6Z GEFS. If the GFS were now showing the 0Z EC that would qualify for "how can this be?"

Don't get me wrong, this IS a big change. The GFS has slowed down by 12hr a huge step towards the EC, but...

The GFS OP now lines up pretty nicely with the ECE mean, which, hasn't yet supported a significant I95 hit and has consistently been well east of and later phased than the EC OP.

Consensus towards the EC OP, but well east of its fantasy is utterly useless for us.

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Well, it is a huge shift to the west, from its prior runs, and the rest of the global models (obviously except the euro). Is this the beginning of a series of steps for the GFS, or is this the "reasonable compromise" between the EC's over amplified solution and the rest of the global models too south and east solutions?

Well, either the 12Z EC will stay the course, OR it will head a bit east towards the 12Z GFS and they'll continue to converge on successive runs.

My guess is the later, not the former.

So a move toward consensus would mean less chance of A HECS, but a better overall agreement on some amounts throught the EC? That seems like a decent solution.

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Gentlemen (and Ladies).... congratulations, there is going to be a superbomb. I think now that we got this resolved and agreed on by guidance it will become a little more fun watching each run the next few days as we get into specifically where it will track, vs. does it have a storm or not. ......I'm sure still some of our more compulsive posters will find a way to worry the storm away and not let the enjoyment of tracking it be had... no matter the outcome.

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Don't get me wrong, this IS a big change. The GFS has slowed down by 12hr a huge step towards the EC, but...

The GFS OP now lines up pretty nicely with the ECE mean, which, hasn't yet supported a significant I95 hit and has consistently been well east of and later phased than the EC OP.

Consensus towards the EC OP, but well east of its fantasy is utterly useless for us.

The EURO has been locked in on the same solution for 3 runs. Given, said solution is an outlier from the general model consensus, but it now appears that at least the GFS is beginning to cave to the EURO (and the GFS will move further west in subsequent runs, as it always does). My bet is that the 12z EURO holds serve; when it shows one particular solution over and over with barely any deviation, I trust the EURO much more than when it shifts around every run (the storm supposed to hit this past Sunday, ahem...). I will either be proven right or wrong in roughly an hour. :)

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So a move toward consensus would mean less chance of A HECS, but a better overall agreement on some amounts throught the EC? That seems like a decent solution.

I don't have access to the ECE mean QPF, but based on its track I'd think meaningful snowfall would be restricted to eastern SC, NC and perhaps extreme SE VA.

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What I see happening is the Euro moves east toward the GFS...all models hold that track until around 12z tomorrow...then we go back to the Euro original solution.

I hope.

original solution of 12z y-day? not happening imo.

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If this thing does track just right, it doesnt look like its going to move that quick so it could be possibly historic with amounts. The gigantic EC storm thats been out there for a week now doesnt seem to be moving which could halt this sucker. Jealous we don't get to track these kind of monsters here in MI.

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The EURO has been locked in on the same solution for 3 runs. Given, said solution is an outlier from the general model consensus, but it now appears that at least the GFS is beginning to cave to the EURO (and the GFS will move further west in subsequent runs, as it always does). My bet is that the 12z EURO holds serve; when it shows one particular solution over and over with barely any deviation, I trust the EURO much more than when it shifts around every run (the storm supposed to hit this past Sunday, ahem...). I will either be proven right or wrong in roughly an hour. :)

I just plain trust the Euro much more than I do the other medium range deterministic models. I trust it more even when it jumps from one solution to another. I'm just really hesitant to trust the EC with this system, or any other that shows explosive cyclogenesis on the west edge of the gulf stream this winter. It's done it two or three times this season and it was wrong each time...and, each time, it also lacked the support of its ECE mean.

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Has anyone peeked at the canadian model lately? It too is showing something more looking like Euro than GFS. or does it...

It looks a lot more like the 12Z GFS, and ECE mean, than the 0Z EC. At least to me.

Edit: Actually the GFS is further west and less progressive (ie: "better and more EC like") in my opinion than is the GGEM.

The GEFS, however, has obviously taken a big step left as well. At least one of the members really does now mimic the 0Z ECOP and another is not far behind. Looks like two other members look sort'a like yesterday's 12Z ECOP while the remainder seem to agree with the OP.

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