wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thats nuts... 700 mb RH with SFC pressure @ hr 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 But the ensembles supported the 6z op...how could this happen? Nope. You're implied logic/conclusion isn't valid. The 6Z GEFS and GFS didn't support the 0Z EC. That's the relevant issue. The 12Z OP GFS isn't a horrible divergence from the 6Z GEFS. If the GFS were now showing the 0Z EC that would qualify for "how can this be?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nope. You're implied logic/conclusion isn't valid. The 6Z GEFS and GFS didn't support the 0Z EC. That's the relevant issue. The 12Z OP GFS isn't a horrible divergence from the 6Z GEFS. If the GFS were now showing the 0Z EC that would qualify for "how can this be?" I'm lost....I'm going back to stocking milk now...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nope. You're implied logic/conclusion isn't valid. The 6Z GEFS and GFS didn't support the 0Z EC. That's the relevant issue. The 12Z OP GFS isn't a horrible divergence from the 6Z GEFS. If the GFS were now showing the 0Z EC that would qualify for "how can this be?" Don't get me wrong, this IS a big change. The GFS has slowed down by 12hr a huge step towards the EC, but... The GFS OP now lines up pretty nicely with the ECE mean, which, hasn't yet supported a significant I95 hit and has consistently been well east of and later phased than the EC OP. Consensus towards the EC OP, but well east of its fantasy is utterly useless for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well, it is a huge shift to the west, from its prior runs, and the rest of the global models (obviously except the euro). Is this the beginning of a series of steps for the GFS, or is this the "reasonable compromise" between the EC's over amplified solution and the rest of the global models too south and east solutions? Well, either the 12Z EC will stay the course, OR it will head a bit east towards the 12Z GFS and they'll continue to converge on successive runs. My guess is the later, not the former. So a move toward consensus would mean less chance of A HECS, but a better overall agreement on some amounts throught the EC? That seems like a decent solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Gentlemen (and Ladies).... congratulations, there is going to be a superbomb. I think now that we got this resolved and agreed on by guidance it will become a little more fun watching each run the next few days as we get into specifically where it will track, vs. does it have a storm or not. ......I'm sure still some of our more compulsive posters will find a way to worry the storm away and not let the enjoyment of tracking it be had... no matter the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Seems to me it will be fairly important for the euro to stay West of the GFS and others today. As others have mentioned some of us need a little shift West to get some good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Don't get me wrong, this IS a big change. The GFS has slowed down by 12hr a huge step towards the EC, but... The GFS OP now lines up pretty nicely with the ECE mean, which, hasn't yet supported a significant I95 hit and has consistently been well east of and later phased than the EC OP. Consensus towards the EC OP, but well east of its fantasy is utterly useless for us. The EURO has been locked in on the same solution for 3 runs. Given, said solution is an outlier from the general model consensus, but it now appears that at least the GFS is beginning to cave to the EURO (and the GFS will move further west in subsequent runs, as it always does). My bet is that the 12z EURO holds serve; when it shows one particular solution over and over with barely any deviation, I trust the EURO much more than when it shifts around every run (the storm supposed to hit this past Sunday, ahem...). I will either be proven right or wrong in roughly an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So a move toward consensus would mean less chance of A HECS, but a better overall agreement on some amounts throught the EC? That seems like a decent solution. I don't have access to the ECE mean QPF, but based on its track I'd think meaningful snowfall would be restricted to eastern SC, NC and perhaps extreme SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Seems to me it will be fairly important for the euro to stay West of the GFS and others today. As others have mentioned some of us need a little shift West to get some good snow Worried Leesburg is gonna get fringed like last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What I see happening is the Euro moves east toward the GFS...all models hold that track until around 12z tomorrow...then we go back to the Euro original solution. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Worried Leesburg is gonna get fringed like last year? This model fringe stuff gets wearing on my old bones...we have been extremely lucky back here on game day but gosh it's a painful march towards glory. This storm no different....yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What I see happening is the Euro moves east toward the GFS...all models hold that track until around 12z tomorrow...then we go back to the Euro original solution. I hope. Or Euro holds steady and others continue to trend towards it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What I see happening is the Euro moves east toward the GFS...all models hold that track until around 12z tomorrow...then we go back to the Euro original solution. I hope. original solution of 12z y-day? not happening imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Not such a bad thing that it is looking delayed. I have to travel on Christmas anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I agree with the first part...not so sure about the second part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If this thing does track just right, it doesnt look like its going to move that quick so it could be possibly historic with amounts. The gigantic EC storm thats been out there for a week now doesnt seem to be moving which could halt this sucker. Jealous we don't get to track these kind of monsters here in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJField Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Has anyone peeked at the canadian model lately? It too is showing something more looking like Euro than GFS. or does it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The EURO has been locked in on the same solution for 3 runs. Given, said solution is an outlier from the general model consensus, but it now appears that at least the GFS is beginning to cave to the EURO (and the GFS will move further west in subsequent runs, as it always does). My bet is that the 12z EURO holds serve; when it shows one particular solution over and over with barely any deviation, I trust the EURO much more than when it shifts around every run (the storm supposed to hit this past Sunday, ahem...). I will either be proven right or wrong in roughly an hour. I just plain trust the Euro much more than I do the other medium range deterministic models. I trust it more even when it jumps from one solution to another. I'm just really hesitant to trust the EC with this system, or any other that shows explosive cyclogenesis on the west edge of the gulf stream this winter. It's done it two or three times this season and it was wrong each time...and, each time, it also lacked the support of its ECE mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Has anyone peeked at the canadian model lately? It too is showing something more looking like Euro than GFS. or does it... It looks a lot more like the 12Z GFS, and ECE mean, than the 0Z EC. At least to me. Edit: Actually the GFS is further west and less progressive (ie: "better and more EC like") in my opinion than is the GGEM. The GEFS, however, has obviously taken a big step left as well. At least one of the members really does now mimic the 0Z ECOP and another is not far behind. Looks like two other members look sort'a like yesterday's 12Z ECOP while the remainder seem to agree with the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Consensus still argues for a graze. I'd be surprised if the EURO showed another massive hit but I guess it could. I didn't expect last night to follow up on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 DC/BWI area can't afford much of an eastern shift from last night's Euro track. Other areas further to the east can. I'd actually love to see the Euro shift slightly west today. A shift to the east by the Euro could be the begining of the end for our area. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 When does the 12Z Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 When does the 12Z Euro run? now.. have it out to 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I don't have a good feeling about this. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I don't have a good feeling about this. MDstorm I have to agree. I am just not buying this large storm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 now.. have it out to 24 hrs Wow...just wow. My "passionate reasoning" is beginning to look like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 FOOTAGE OF AMWX REACTION TO 12Z EURO RUN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 per mitchnick: through 120 hrs DCA-.91" BWI-.89" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 per mitchnick: through 120 hrs DCA-.91" BWI-.89" Jesus... 126 hrs DCA: 1.36" BWI-1.30" 132 hrs DCA-1.55" BWI-1.50 IAD-1.43" again per mitchnick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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